New Sound Transit CEO’s Report Card

 The previous post proposed Sound Transit could use the time needed to redo East Link track attachments to allow the Link’s train routes to terminate at Chinatown station.  This post offers a “Report Card” on the new Sound Transit CEO, Julie Timm’s, response to the need to redo the Link's attachments on her blog post and during the December 8th Sound Transit meetings.  

On the plus side is her recognition Sound Transit problems with East Link and Tacoma Dome Link extensions have resulted in her requesting authorization to contract with HDR Engineering for construction management service.  The need to spend up to $118M and $93M respectively on the two extensions indicates she recognizes Sound Transit’s engineering oversight problems.  

On the minus side is her December 8th blog post, “East Link opening timeframe update” continues Sound Transit’s plan to implement “voter approved” extensions.   CEO Timm apparently doesn’t acknowledge extending light rail tracks do nothing to increase the number of transit vehicles per hour or the number of riders in each vehicle.  That the major result of the extensions is increased operating costs. 

The result of the track attachment redo is a two-year delay in East Link demonstrating Sound Transit’s biggest debacle.  They should have never been allowed to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for a transit system that limits East Side and South Seattle capacity to half the DSTT trains.  That using the trains to replace cross lake bus routes limits transit capacity and does nothing to reduce I-90 corridor congestion. 

Instead, the Lynnwood extension debut in either summer/fall or fall/winter 2024 will demonstrate the problem with “voter approved” extensions along I-5 corridor.   Most of the corridor commuters with access to transit have already been required to transfer from bus routes to the Northgate Link for the ride into and out of Seattle.  While some of them will use Lynnwood extension instead, the number of commuters added will be a fraction of Sound Transit’s 37,000 to 57,000 predicted.  Yet the 8.5-mile extension will add ~$2000 for the round trip from Northgate, doubling round trip cost from Westlake.     

 CEO Timm also gets a failing grade for her blog post proposal to implement Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Chair Claudia Balducci’s proposal for a East Link Starter Line alongside ST 550 bus route to South Bellevue P&R.   Bellevue commuters will “likely” choose ST 550 because it’s route though downtown Bellevue has better access and there’s no need to transfer at P&R.  Even fewer returning commuters will choose to transfer to light rail at South Bellevue for the trip into Bellevue.  

The bottom line is CEO Timm’s blog post reflects the fact she was hired because of her willingness to implement “voter approved” extensions.  The Seattle Times has abetted Sound Transit refusal to release the Northgate Link results demonstrating the "voter approved" extensions lacked the access and capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. 

The need to redo the East Link track attachments has resulted in CEO Timm's blog post delaying the next demonstration from June 2023 to at least summer 2024 Lynnwood Link debut.  Continuing what Sound Transit hired her to do for as long as the Seattle Times enables them.

Sound Transit Can Still Mitigate East Link Debacle.

The December 8th Sound Transit email “East Link Extension Project Update” continues the Link debacle with an “East Link opening timeframe update”.  It refers to a blog post by CEO Julie Timm detailing their current response to Sound Transit hiring a construction company that failed to properly install light rail tracks.  A failure Sound Transit first acknowledged with the following in the April Agency Progress Report:   

Contract E130-- Seattle to South Bellevue:  

Current Progress                                                                                                 West Segment:  Progress non-conforming tract direct fixation concrete plinth remediation                                                                                                       Center Segment:  Progress non-conforming tract direct fixation concrete plinth remediation.                                                                                                         East Segment: progress non-conforming track direct fixation concrete plinth remediation.  

Schedule Summary                                                                                           Within the E130 contract schedule, the critical path is driven by track remediation scope and cathodic protection on the floating bridge  

That Next Period’s Activities for all three segments included “direct fixation plinth remediation”.  

Similar concerns were included in subsequent monthly progress reports with no indications of progress.  The Current Progress activity in the December 6th release of the October report continues with “ongoing non-conforming track remediation”.   The schedule summary “The contractor needs to correct non-conforming scopes of work” with no estimate of completion.  

Typical of Sound Transit they call the contractor's need to replace faulty track attachments as “non-conforming track direct fixation remediation”.  The December 8th CEO blog post refers to the contractor's flawed attachments as a “project construction challenge”.   

 The email details the need to “ensure the work performed does not damage the bridge structure”.  That Sound Transit needs to “inspect all the work” and the staff needs “increased training to ensure they understand the required tolerances and scopes of work being installed”.  Apparently concerned their contractor still needed Sound Transit to oversee the “remediation”.  Not much of a contractor “endorsement”.  

One would have thought an April Agency Progress Report problem would, by December, have some “remediation” date and a recommendation as to how to proceed.  Instead, the blog post update “Possible project opening timeframes” delays East Link from July 2023 to Spring 2025.  It suggests an East Link Starter Line in 2024, problems with the two sequencing options, and “the intention to ask the Board for direction as soon as January”.    

The bottom line is the need to redo track attachments will delay demonstrating Sound Transit should have never been allowed to install light rail tracks on I-90 Bridge.  However,  the delay also allows them to mitigate that debacle by using the delay to implement terminating East Link trains at Chinatown station.  

The entire Sound Transit service area would benefit. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Year of ST Approving Financial Plan and Proposed Budget Folly

The agenda for the Dec 8th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Meeting includes the following: 

6. Business Items

For committee final action:

B. Motion No. M2022-95: Recommending that the portions of the Proposed 2023 Budget and Transit improvement Plan reviewed by the System Expansion Committee be forwarded by the Finance and Audit Committee to the Board with a do-pass recommendation.

The motion personifies a decade of a Sound Transit Board made up of “well minded” elected officials with no understanding of what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit should be used to provide transit for those who can’t drive or choose not to drive to destinations and to reduce congestion for those who do.  That doing so requires providing those seeking to use transit with access to transit capacity to desired destinations.   

Instead, the Sound Transit Board apparently perceives its job is to implement Prop 1 and ST3 “Voter approved extensions”.  They’ve chosen to ignore the fact both voter approvals were the result of delusional extension ridership projections.  That Sound Transit refuses to add parking to increase access to transit or acknowledge light rail spine extensions don’t increase transit capacity into the city.  Thus, ridership added by extensions will only reduce access for current commuters.  

The October 2021 Northgate Link debut exemplified those failures.  Sound Transit’s website had projected the Link would add 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022.  Prior to the debut, the Seattle Times Traffic had heralded the Link as “Transit Transformed” promising the Link’s three stations would add 42,000 to 49,000 riders.  

 

Yet Sound Transit has yet to release the ridership added, no longer providing any quarterly service delivery performance reports.  Ending reports for service provided, riders added at each light rail station, and riders added by each bus route. Also ending reports for costs per boarder and fare box recovery of those costs for each transit mode.    

Instead, the result was reflected in Sound Transit’s 2022 budget prediction only 43,000 “Average Weekday Boardings” for the entire Link, less than the 48,600 predicted for 2021 budget, prior to Northgate debut.   The budget predicted the Link extension added costs, with $14.92 cost per boarding, a 30% increase over $11.67, 2021 prediction.  Both, presumably the result of Sound Transit’s recognition of the Link’s failure to provide commuters with increased access and transit capacity into Seattle.  

Sound Transit’s October 2023 Budget doesn't include any comparable “Link Budget Highlights”, “Service Provided, Boardings, Costs per Boarding, or Farebox Recovery.  Thus, it’s unclear what their year-over-year predictions with Northgate Link operation.  Yet, the budget’s Long Range Financial Plan, Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart still shows Link ridership increasing from 18 million in 2022 to 62 million in 2026.  Presumably because of extensions to Lynnwood, Federal Way, and Redmond.   

However, none of those extensions significantly increase parking for access, the number of transit vehicles per hour, or the capacity of those vehicles.  Sound Transit plans to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity into the city.  Sound Transit waits until 2032 for the West Seattle and 2037 for Ballard extensions to add transit capacity into downtown.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee on Dec. 8th will recommend approving the 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget.  A budget that reflects Sound Transit’s apparent goal to implement “voter approved” link extensions rather than reduce area’s congestion.  A budget that ignores the Northgate Link demonstration of the need for access and transit capacity.  Another year and billions spent on extensions that increase operating costs, do nothing to reduce congestion into the city, and reduce access for current riders. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seattle Times Abets ST East Link Debacle

 A previous post opined the Seattle Times had abetted the Sound Transit Board of Directors adopting a “Transit Development Plan 2022-2027” exemplfying a decade of transit system incompetence.  However, the most egregious example of Seattle Times abetting Sound Transit incompetence is the paper’s Traffic Lab response to the East Link debacle.  

 The paper heralds it as follows:  

Traffic Lab is a project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock, and helps readers find the best ways to get around.  

Clearly the “region’s thorny transportation issue” is the congestion on I-5 and I-90 into and out of Seattle.  A competent Traffic Lab would have recognized the folly of Sound Transit’s decision to confiscate the I-90 Bridge center roadway for East Link.  That two-way bus only routes on bridge center roadway would have 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost.  

That Sound Transit compounded the capacity problem by choosing to route East Link beyond Chinatown station through DSTT to UW, Northgate, and eventually to Mariner P&R near Everett.  The result being rather than adding transit capacity into Seattle, Central Link lost half of the DSTT capacity.    

What’s absurd is rather than using East Link to add cross-lake transit capacity into Seattle, Sound Transit will use it to replace bus routes into the city.  Apparently not recognizing I-90 Bridge congestion is not due to too many buses.  Spending more than $3B on a transit system that halves Central Link capacity and is used primarily to replace bus routes surely qualifies as a debacle.

 Sound Transit could avoid Central Link losing half DSTT capacity by terminating East Link at Chinatown.  Doing so would allow Sound Transit to adjust the number of cars in each train and schedule frequency to meet the demand from commuters with access along route through Bellevue.  I-90 corridor buses could be routed into and out of Seattle rather than terminated on Mercer Island.  The Chinatown Station would also provide easy access for returning East Link riders.

The modification could be implemented during the delay due to the contractors need to redo the track attachments.   As of the November 17th meeting, the Board didn't know how long the delay.  A competent Traffic Lab would advocate using the delay to terminate East Link at Chinatown.

Instead, they'll likely abet Board's November 17th plan to implement a Starter 2 Line for East Link on east side of Lake Washington.  Typical of the Board, it's not clear why the need for the Starter Line.  Rapid Line 2 already provides far better access to transit into Bellevue than Starter Line 2.  Many transit commuters will also be dissuaded  by the need to transfer to and from buses at South Bellevue or Mercer Island P&R's to commute into and out of Seattle.  

The bottom line is  the contractor's need to redo attaching tracks delays Sound Transit's demonstration they should have never confiscated the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail.  However, the delay gives them a chance to mitigate the damage by terminating East Link at Chinatown.  Instead, Sound Transit will likely  use the delay to spend additional billions on other similarly flawed "voter approved" extensions.

Again, another Sound Transit folly, abetted by Seattle Times Traffic Lab. 

New ST CEO Continues Rogoff Debacle

A previous post opined a public transit system CEO’s responsibility should be to oversee providing transit for those who can’t or don’t choose to drive and to reduce congestion for those who do.  A competent transit CEO would recognize that spending billions on “voter approved” light rail spine extensions won’t do either.  Instead, the new CEO’s leadership has resulted in a “2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget” that continues a decade of Sound Transit failure.

 

The 2023 budget’s “Long Range Financial Plan” continues expanding the funding requirements from the $54B voters approved in 2016 to $149.1B in 2046.  It ends with a “Tax Backed Debt” of $29B in 2046 with ST3 taxes that “Backed that Debt” ending in 2041.   

 

The long-range plan’s “Fare Revenue 2017—2046” chart claim Link Light Rail fares would increase from $20 million to $370 million in 2046 reflected delusional projections Link ridership would increase from 22 million to 150 million.  It also showed Sound Transit’s failure to recognize the benefits of added bus service with no anticipated fare revenue or ridership increase.  

 

The video of the November 10^th System Expansion Committee meeting only addressed the new CEO’s 2023 budget.  The 172-page budget was more about process than product, having extensive details on the process of how more than $3 billion will be spent on transit mode expansions and total operating costs but nothing on the product.  The product being what service will each transit mode provide, how many riders do they expect, how much it will cost for each rider, and what is each modes expected fare box recovery?   

 

A major portion of the 2023 budget is the ~$1,250 million spent funding “voter approved extensions” to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way. None of those extensions increase transit capacity with more light rail cars per minute or more riders per car.   Yet, the 2023 budget in the “Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart predicts Link light rail ridership will increase from 24 million in 2017 to 62 million in 2026 when the extensions are completed.

 

The new CEO’s 2023 budget also exemplifies Sound Transit decade of failing to recognize reducing freeway congestion requires attracting more commuters with added access to transit.  The access comes from stations within walking distance of transit stations, parking near light rail stations, or access to bus routes to stations.

 

None of the potential Link stations are within walking distance of the number of commuters needed to reduce congestion.  All the parking with access to Link stations or bus routes to the stations is already "fully in use".  The additional commuters needed to reduce congestion won’t have access without added parking, access to Link stations or bus routes to stations.

 

The Northgate Link debut exemplified Sound Transit's lack-of-access problem.  As with all of the light rail spine extensions, they attempt to make up for the failure to add parking for access by requiring bus riders using existing parking ride Link rather than bus routes into Seattle.  Replacing bus routes does nothing to increase transit ridership, reduce I-5 congestion, and reduces total transit capacity into Seattle.

 

The failure to provide access was presumably reflected in the Northgate Link’s failure to attract ridership.  Yet, Sound Transit refuses to release a quarterly Service Delivery Performance Report that would have shown only a fraction of the predicted 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders were added by the three Link stations.  Portending a lack-of-access problem with all the light rail spine extensions.  In response the 2023 budget spends $13 million on a System Access Policy attempting to “manage parking demand” by “maximizing efficient use of available parking resources".  A dubious process at best.

 

To be fair, much of the 2023 budget pre-ordained the new CEO’s arrival.  However, the November 10^th video of the 2023 budget presentation to the Board’s “System Expansion Committee indicates she’s willing to continue the debacle with this year's installment.  

ST System Expansion Committee Incompetence

 The November 10th System Expansion Committee agenda includes the following:

Review of the Proposed 2023 Budget for system expansion projects 

It’s a follow-up to the same agenda item in the November 3, 2022, Executive Committee Meeting.  Both deal with the 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget proposed $3.1 billion expenditures with $2,369 million on “Projects” and $500 million on “Transit Operation.”  That $1,686 million of the project’s funding would be spent on Link system expansion in 2023.   

 

It's the 2023 version of Sound Transit’s plan to spend $149.1B from 2017 to 2046 on “voter approved extension” for the “largest transit system expansion in the country”.  That the result in the 2023 “Ridership by Mode 2017--2046” chart is an increase in Link ridership from 22 million to 150 million.  A “Capital Expenditures by Mode 2017—2046” chart showed about 90% will be spent on “Link Light Rail”.  

 

The 2023 budget showed Sound Transit intends to increase light rail expenditures from ~$1,700 million in 2023 to ~$3,200 million in 2024 and ~$3,100 million in 2025 completing extensions to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way.  Yet none of those track extensions will increase the number of light rail cars per hour or the number of riders in each car.  Thus, the extensions don’t increase a light rail train’s capacity into Seattle. Yet, the 2023 budget’s “Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart predicts the funds spent will increase ridership from 30 million in 2023 to 62 million in 2026.  

 

The committee compounds their failure to recognize capacity limits with plans  to use light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle.  They initiated that approach using Northgate Link trains to replace ST Express Bus and KCM routes into the city.  It’s more than a year since the Link debuted.  Yet Sound Transit refuses to release their Quarterly Service Delivered Performance reports with how many of the predicted 41,000 to 49,000 riders the Link’s three stations added.  Instead, whatever riders were added reduced access for University Link riders.

 

Sound Transit could increase the number of light rail cars into Seattle by terminating East Link at Chinatown Station.  Instead, they intend to use the extension to replace all the I-90 bus routes into Seattle on light rail trains routed to Mariner P&R near Everett.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit's Link ridership claims are delusional.  The board's System Expansion Committee is about to approve a 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget with another year of $500 million spent on operations and ~$1,700 million on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase capacity.  That using light rail to replace buses will reduce the number of transit vehicles, transit capacity into the city, and access to transit for current riders.

The result of a transit board of well-meaning elected officials with no understanding of what constitutes effective public transit.

Sound Transit’s Delusional Ridership Projections

One of the more incongruous Sound Transit statements comes from their annual “Financial Plan and Proposed Budget” regarding long range transit ridership projection:

 

For long-range ridership forecasts, Sound Transit uses a travel demand forecasting model. In this model, transit ridership forecasts are based on observed origins and destinations of transit riders, observed transit line volumes, and a realistic simulation of observed transit service characteristics.

 

The latest example is the $142B, 2023 budgets total long-range prediction,  “Ridership by Mode” Boardings will increase from 24 million in 2022 to 170 million on 2046.  That “Link Light Rail Boardings” will increase from 19 million to 150 million.  It's not clear how Sound Transit uses a “travel demand forecasting model” to assess the various “mode boardings” or why the steps in “demand” from the Link extensions.

 

The steps in “demand” from extensions ignore the reality that extending light rail tracks extensions do nothing to increase the number of light-rail cars per hour or the number of riders in each car.  Thus, while the Link may increase the “demand”, it won’t increase the capacity so its “unclear” how they extensions will satisfy the demand.  

 

Sound Transit’s other ridership “demand” problem is commuters need access to the light rail train cars.  Yet, Sound Transit’s long-range plan neglects to add parking, despite the fact all the parking with access to transit has been full for years.  Instead, they intend to use the light rail link to replace bus routes into Seattle. Commuters who currently use the parking for access to bus routes are required to transfer to light rail, reducing bus routes and transit capacity into Seattle.

 

The bottom line is not only that light rail extensions do nothing to increase transit capacity, using them to replace bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and access for current link riders.  The Northgate Link debut has already reduced bus transit capacity with future extensions adding to that loss.  The most egregious example is the East Link operation which will not only end I-90 bridge bus transit capacity into Seattle, it will also halve Link transit capacity to and from SeaTac.  Using that Link to replace bus routes from south of Seattle will add to the capacity loss.

 

Sound Transit needs to explain how they will meet transit ridership “demand” with their light rail spine.