Sound Transit’s Delusional Ridership Projections

One of the more incongruous Sound Transit statements comes from their annual “Financial Plan and Proposed Budget” regarding long range transit ridership projection:

 

For long-range ridership forecasts, Sound Transit uses a travel demand forecasting model. In this model, transit ridership forecasts are based on observed origins and destinations of transit riders, observed transit line volumes, and a realistic simulation of observed transit service characteristics.

 

The latest example is the $142B, 2023 budgets total long-range prediction,  “Ridership by Mode” Boardings will increase from 24 million in 2022 to 170 million on 2046.  That “Link Light Rail Boardings” will increase from 19 million to 150 million.  It's not clear how Sound Transit uses a “travel demand forecasting model” to assess the various “mode boardings” or why the steps in “demand” from the Link extensions.

 

The steps in “demand” from extensions ignore the reality that extending light rail tracks extensions do nothing to increase the number of light-rail cars per hour or the number of riders in each car.  Thus, while the Link may increase the “demand”, it won’t increase the capacity so its “unclear” how they extensions will satisfy the demand.  

 

Sound Transit’s other ridership “demand” problem is commuters need access to the light rail train cars.  Yet, Sound Transit’s long-range plan neglects to add parking, despite the fact all the parking with access to transit has been full for years.  Instead, they intend to use the light rail link to replace bus routes into Seattle. Commuters who currently use the parking for access to bus routes are required to transfer to light rail, reducing bus routes and transit capacity into Seattle.

 

The bottom line is not only that light rail extensions do nothing to increase transit capacity, using them to replace bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and access for current link riders.  The Northgate Link debut has already reduced bus transit capacity with future extensions adding to that loss.  The most egregious example is the East Link operation which will not only end I-90 bridge bus transit capacity into Seattle, it will also halve Link transit capacity to and from SeaTac.  Using that Link to replace bus routes from south of Seattle will add to the capacity loss.

 

Sound Transit needs to explain how they will meet transit ridership “demand” with their light rail spine.