ST System Expansion Committee Incompetence

 The November 10th System Expansion Committee agenda includes the following:

Review of the Proposed 2023 Budget for system expansion projects 

It’s a follow-up to the same agenda item in the November 3, 2022, Executive Committee Meeting.  Both deal with the 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget proposed $3.1 billion expenditures with $2,369 million on “Projects” and $500 million on “Transit Operation.”  That $1,686 million of the project’s funding would be spent on Link system expansion in 2023.   

 

It's the 2023 version of Sound Transit’s plan to spend $149.1B from 2017 to 2046 on “voter approved extension” for the “largest transit system expansion in the country”.  That the result in the 2023 “Ridership by Mode 2017--2046” chart is an increase in Link ridership from 22 million to 150 million.  A “Capital Expenditures by Mode 2017—2046” chart showed about 90% will be spent on “Link Light Rail”.  

 

The 2023 budget showed Sound Transit intends to increase light rail expenditures from ~$1,700 million in 2023 to ~$3,200 million in 2024 and ~$3,100 million in 2025 completing extensions to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way.  Yet none of those track extensions will increase the number of light rail cars per hour or the number of riders in each car.  Thus, the extensions don’t increase a light rail train’s capacity into Seattle. Yet, the 2023 budget’s “Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart predicts the funds spent will increase ridership from 30 million in 2023 to 62 million in 2026.  

 

The committee compounds their failure to recognize capacity limits with plans  to use light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle.  They initiated that approach using Northgate Link trains to replace ST Express Bus and KCM routes into the city.  It’s more than a year since the Link debuted.  Yet Sound Transit refuses to release their Quarterly Service Delivered Performance reports with how many of the predicted 41,000 to 49,000 riders the Link’s three stations added.  Instead, whatever riders were added reduced access for University Link riders.

 

Sound Transit could increase the number of light rail cars into Seattle by terminating East Link at Chinatown Station.  Instead, they intend to use the extension to replace all the I-90 bus routes into Seattle on light rail trains routed to Mariner P&R near Everett.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit's Link ridership claims are delusional.  The board's System Expansion Committee is about to approve a 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget with another year of $500 million spent on operations and ~$1,700 million on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase capacity.  That using light rail to replace buses will reduce the number of transit vehicles, transit capacity into the city, and access to transit for current riders.

The result of a transit board of well-meaning elected officials with no understanding of what constitutes effective public transit.