Seattle Times Connivance with Sound Transit

 My candidacy for King County Executive gives me another opportunity to inform residents about the Seattle Times incompetence.  This year it goes beyond their abiding if not abetting a decade of Sound Transit failure to conniving with that failure.  That's their decision to ignore Sound Transit's approach to "Transit Improvement Plan to 2026" in 2021 budget.

A Seattle Times Sept 3rd editorial, "Speak Up on Sound Transit Plans" responded to Sound Transit's July16th "Transit Development Plan 2020-2025" with the following suggestion:

"The comment period will provide an opportunity for a broad conversation about transit plans going forward, as Sound Transit decides which projects to delay and possibly shelve"

The editorial concluded:

"Concerned residents should review and comment on 'what's in the works'.  Consider it the start of a vital, regional discussion."

The editorial continued the paper's decade-long refusal to recognize light rail spine extensions do nothing to increase DSTT capacity with:

"The promised spine linking Everett, Seattle, and Tacomo must be completed"

The July TPD included a chart "Capital Improvement Program, 2019-2025" with the following expenditures for Light Rail (Link)  

                               Year                          Thousands                                                                2021                        $1,998,969                                                                2022                          1,805,414                                                                2023                          2,219,852                                                                2024                          1,892,637                                                                2025                          1,689,224                                                                TOTAL                    $9,608,090

The vast majority of those expenditures were intended for extending the light rail spine.  Thus, its not clear why the Times urged "Concerned residents review and comment on what's in the works" in the TDP.

By contrast the Seattle Times has simply ignored the Sound Transit 2021 budget approval process. It began when the " Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021 Budget" was presented to the board's Finance and Audit committee on October 10th.  It included charts showing "Long Range Financial Plan Projections 2017-2041" and "Proposed 2021 Budget".

The 2017-2041 budget concern was the pandemic had reduced their ability to borrow the funds needed for their current plan.  The solution was a realignment consisting of a 4-year delay to "make program affordable".  The budget showed the 4-year realignment delayed any increase in "Outstanding Debt" until 2029.

Still the October Proposed 2021 Budget included a $700 million TIFIA loan to fund the $2.5 billion projects budget.  It also resulted in  a $17 billion debt when ST3 funding ended in 2042, with debt service payments and light rail spine operating costs far exceeding any ability to pay.

The October 10th budget didn't include any details of Sound Transit's "Transit Improvement Plan to 2026".  It was presented and approved as part of the 2021 budget during a December 17th morning meeting with the board's Finance and audit Committee and approved by the entire board in the afternoon.

The videos of the two meetings showed both Sound Transit and the board had agreed to spending $21.46 billion for "Board-approved costs for active projects through 2026".  The Sound Transit October budget, which the board approved detailing the need for "realignment" to make extensions "affordable" had devolved into a December 17th agreement to spend $21.46 billion over the next 6 years on a Transit Improvement Plan.  That Sound Transit intended to spend more than twice what they'd told the public in the July 16th "Transit Development Plan 2020-2025".

Again, the October 10th budget delayed any increase in "Outstanding Debt" until 2029, yet needed a $700 TIFIA loan for the $3.5 billion 2021 spending.  It took the December 17th videos to show Sound Transit and the board had already approved a 2021 budget spending $21.46 billion over 5 years with no plans for funding.  Yet the Seattle Times response to the December 17th budget machinations has been limited to a Traffic Lab article (also on 17th) heralding CEO Peter Rogoff's decision to "skip" the $29,000 increase to his $379,000 annual salary this year.

The bottom line is the Seattle Times has gone beyond their decision to abide if not abet Sound Transit spending billions on fatally flawed light rail extensions.  They've refused to urge legislature require an audit that would have concluded Sound transit ridership projections were delusional and that replacing buses with light rail trains will do nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.  

It's not clear what the objections the Times had to Sound Transit's July Transit Development Plan". (The September 3rd editorial urging the comment period "start to a vital regional discussion" was a decade too late.)  What is clear is the paper has ignored the Sound Transit Board approving a 2021 budget far different from what was  in the October budget available to the public.

The December 17th approval will double the light rail link spending in the Sound Transit July Transit Development Plan 2020-2025 and require a large increase in debt despite a 2021 "public" budget claiming no increase in "Outstanding Debt" until 2029.  The Seattle Times decision to ignore that malfeasance surely qualifies as connivance.

My goal as a candidate for King County Executive is to inform voters of Sound Transit malfeasance and Seattle Times connivance.

Northgate Link Debut Exemplifies Light Rail Spine Debacle

 I'll be filing again as a King County Executive candidate because of the Seattle Times decade-long connivance with an incompetent Dow Constantine Sound Transit Board.  This year the area's residents will see for themselves the results of that connivance: the debut of  the Northgate Link in September.

Sound Transit should have never extended Central Link routed through DSTT to Northgate.  It resulted from their agreement to pay University $20 million to tunnel under the campus rather than implement a T/C at the UW Stadium station.  Their initial Central Link plan had included a 2nd Montlake Cut bridge to facilitate SR520 transit bus connection to the T/C

The T/C would have enhanced cross-lake commuting when University Link began operating in 2016.  Sound Transit could have increased I-5 transit capacity and ridership with added parking and bus routes into Seattle. Instead Sound Transit proceeded with the $2.1 billion, 4.2-mile extension to Northgate, claiming 15,000 daily riders by 2026.  Since then Sound Transit has increased the purported "benefits"with their website describing it as a "$2.5 billion, 4.2-mile, 3-station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022".

The video of a November 19th 2020 Sound Transit Board meeting showed their latest plan for Northgate Link's debut in Sept 2021.  It will finally demonstrate what would have been obvious to anyone with a modicum of transit competence, the extension does nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.

Reducing roadway congestion requires reducing the number of vehicles on roadway.  Again Sound Transit website claimed it will reduce congestion by attracting 41,000 to 49.000 riders. Yet the extension does nothing to increase transit capacity via DSTT into Seattle,

Rather than adding parking or local bus routes to light rail stations Sound Transit plans to generate light rail ridership by using it to replace bus routes into Seattle.   The November 19th video shows Sound Transit attempts to generate light rail riders will, at best, be "limited".

Their surveys showed commuters preferred riding buses directly into Seattle during rush hour.  As a result, Sound Transit will continue routing  ST510 into and out of Seattle.  It provides routes during peak commute  from Everett Station along I-5  every 10-15 minutes between 5:00 and 8:45 a.m. and from 2:30 to 6:50 p.m.

All of the Snohomish Community Transit SCT 400 series routes and  King County Metro 41 into and out of Seattle will also continue.  The video showed Metro plans to add new KCM 322 & 362 routes from Northgate via Roosevelt Station into Seattle.  Thus, Northgate Link will be limited to replacing ST511-513 routes from Northgate and ST522 routes from Roosevelt Station.  (A UW T/C could have reduced more bus routes into Seattle without spending a dime on light rail extension)

My campaign will "predict" only a fraction of Sound Transit's 41,000 to 49,000 commuters will ride the link. That using light rail to replace ST511-513 routes from Northgate and  ST522 routes from Roosevelt station will do nothing to reduce I-5 congestion. 

 Those riding the extension will result in less access for University Link riders at UW Stadium and Capital Hill stations, especially during peak commute.  The added riders will also exacerbate the problem with finding access at Westlake and University Stations in DSTT for return trip.

The other result will be higher operating costs.  The 4.2-mile extension adds 8.4 miles to the current round trip Link route.  Sound Transit recently published a "Temporary Service Schedule" that includes 84 weekday and 75 Saturday and Sunday routes.  The result being Northgate Link will add 706 miles on weekdays and 630 daily miles on weekends. 

With Sound Transit light rail cars costing ~$25 per mile, the link will add  $17,650 per car on weekdays and $15,750 per car daily on weekends.  The added route lengths with Northgate Link operation will add $4.6 million per car to annual operating cost.   

Assuming 3-car trains, Northgate Link will add $13.8 million to annual operating cost for current "Temporary Service Schedule".  Those costs could increase or decrease depending on number of cars-per-train or trains-per-hour.  What won't increase is fare revenue unless those forced to transfer to light rail will pay a 2nd fare.

The bottom line is it's too late to do anything about the Northgate Link failure to reduce I-5 congestion.  By the time of the election, an incompetent Sound Transit Board, with Seattle Times connivance, will have spent an additional $1.5 billion on light rail extensions to Lynnwood and beyond, and to Federal Way and beyond that exacerbate that failure. 

Another year of Sound Transit Board's plan to spend $21.6 billion over the next five years on their Transit Improvement Plan the Sound Transit Board approved and the Seattle Times ignored. My goal as a candidate for King County Executive is to use the Northgate Link debut to make it the last.

ST Should Expedite Ballard and West Seattle Light Rail

The January 8th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article "Costs soar to extend light rail to West Seattle and Ballard" exemplifies a decade of Times abetting Sound Transit incompetence.  Neither has apparently recognized one of the basics of public transit; light rail train capacity is limited by the number of train cars per hour.  

A 2004 PSRC Technical Workbook, "High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment", funded by Sound Transit, concluded DSTT stations limited trains to 4 cars and safe operation required 4 minutes between trains.  Thus Sound Transit ridership projections for the light rail spine are delusional.

Ten years ago a competent Sound Transit would have opted for routing light rail from Ballard and West Seattle into Seattle rather than extending light rail routed through DSTT to Northgate and Bellevue.  Rather than tunneling to Northgate, Sound Transit would have tunneled to Ballard.  Rather than confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail Sound Transit would have tunneled to West Seattle.

The Ballard and West Seattle links would have increased transit capacity into Seattle by 100,000 daily.  Both extensions would likely already be adding thousands of transit commuters into Seattle.  Instead Sound Transit recently approved a 2021 budget response to COVID-19 with a "realignment" delaying the two links for 4 years and Traffic Lab lamenting their "cost is much higher than initially predicted".

Yet this same Traffic Lab ignored the Sound Transit Board's recent approval of a CEO Rogoff 2021 budget that spends $21 billion on  "Transit Improvement Plan" over the next six years.  That the October 10th "Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021 Budget" they approved "neglected" to even include the $21 billion spending; instead a chart showing no increase in "Outstanding Debt" until 2029.

Today a competent Sound Transit would've recognized that, even with the higher Ballard and West Seattle costs, the two should be expedited. That part of the funding could come by diverting funding in 2021 budget from extensions beyond Northgate and Angel Lake to the two links.  The rest would come from a revised Transit Improvement Plan reflecting their priority  The concern, "half of the increase is due to higher prices for land could be mitigated by tunneling. (Again as the did to Northgate).

The bottom line is the Seattle Times has spent a decade abetting Sound Transit incompetence.  They've refused to recognize spending billions on light rail extensions routed through DSTT will do nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  That Ballard and West Seattle residents deserve light rail that will

Rather than lamenting the costs Traffic Lab should advocate Sound Transit expedite both Ballard and West Seattle light rail links.  Their likely failure to do so or to inform residents of that option is one of the reasons I intend to file as King County Executive candidate this year

Sound Transit Board Car Tab "Solution" Incompetence

The previous post detailed why videos of Sound Transit Board approving a 2021 budget that spends $21.46 billion through 2026 without any provisions for funding were grounds for termination.  That CEO Rogoff, who intends to spend the $21.46 billion on extensions routed through DSTT that do nothing to reduce congestion, should also be replaced.

This post details the board's response in the videos following the budget approval concerning their car tab "solution" adds to justification for termination.  The issue being their response to the below proposal for dealing with legislature regarding the car-tab fees.

Continue to work collaboratively with the state legislature to support the public's desire to base vehicle taxes on a vehicle's true current value, in a revenue neutral manner that does not unconstitutionally impair bondholder contracts.

The statement concedes current MVET aren't based on "vehicles true current value".  Prior to the 2016 vote, Sound Transit told residents, "a median-car owner would pay only $47 in increased tab fees".  Polls have shown ST3 wouldn't have passed if voters had been aware of the board's car-tab mendacity.  

Sound Transit requirement it be "revenue neutral" ignores the fact ST3 began with the board asking for legislation enabling a vote for an additional $1 billion a year for 15 years. As part of the negotiation, Sound Transit reportedly committed to giving $500 million to state's education fund for the enabling legislation.

The result of the ST3 vote was a 2020 budget "pie chart" showing $64 billion in "anticipated tax revenue" by 2041, but nothing to fund schools.  That even if they halved the current MVET, the 2020 budget shows tax revenue would increase from $1.75 billion in 2021 to $2.3 billion in 2028.  Any competent board would recognize there was no need to make up for any loss in revenue from MVET reduction.

The board's demand for revenue neutral legislation to "not constitutionally impair bondholder contracts" is equally absurd.  (it's not clear why any bond impairment violates the Constitution.) Sound Transit's 2016 budget, before ST3 passed, included $123 million in debt service payments out of a $1.2 billion total budget.   The 2020 budget shows there hasn't been any increase in "outstanding debt" since then so its unclear how many bond contracts are "impaired".   

The 2020 budget also includes $100 million in annual debt service payments from 2017 to 2024.  That Sound Transit's total revenue will increase from $1.7 billion to $3.9 billion during that period.  It's "unlikely" any bondholder will be concerned a  loss in revenue from a reduction in MVET will affect their ability to pay the $100 million.

The bottom line is the videos of Sound Transit's car tab "solution" epitomize board incompetence.  In part of the video they raise no concern about finding the funds needed to spend $26 billion over the next 6 years for light rail extensions.  Yet later in the same video insist in asking the legislature to make up for a reduction in car tab fees to fund the $100 million in debt service payments during that period.  Any board so incompetent should be terminated. 

Again, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab's "digging into thorny problems" either hasn't watched the video or doesn't recognize board's incompetence. Their continued failure to "dig into the issue" has prompted my filing as a candidate for King County Executive to inform the county they need a new Sound Transit Board and CEO.