East Link Debut Will Dwarf Northgate Link Debacle

Several recent posts have opined the Northgate Link debut this September will demonstrate Sound Transit should have never extended Central Link beyond UW Station.  This post details why that demonstration will be dwarfed by Sound Transit's 2023 debut of East Link light rail extension across I-90 Bridge.

The Northgate Link debut will demonstrate light rail routed through the DSTT does not have the capacity for the number of transit riders needed to reduce I-5 travel times into Seattle from Northgate.  The East Link debut will demonstrate light rail limited to half the DSTT capacity will increase I-90 Bridge congestion.  

Both Sound Transit extensions violated RCW 81.104.100(2)(b)  regarding high capacity transit planning.

High-capacity transportation planning shall include a study of options to ensure that an appropriate range of technologies and services are evaluated.  The law requires the study of a do-nothing option and a low capital cost option, along with the higher capital options that consider use of different technologies.

Sound Transit never considered reducing congestion on either I-5 or I-90 with additional bus routes into Seattle.  A decade ago they could have added DSTT tunnel light rail transit capacity with a hundred bus routes an hour without spending a dime on light rail extensions. And more could have been added as needed.

The Northgate Link adds transit lanes into Seattle and minimizes impact with tunnel.  East Link confiscates the I-90 Bridge center roadway and devastates route into Bellevue, ending its persona as the "City in the park".  It precluded 2-way BRT on center roadway with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10th the cost.

Riders added by Northgate Link will reduce access for University Link commuters.  East Link operation will halve Central Link capacity beyond International Station, adding to futility of Federal Way extension.

Sound Transit will attempt  to make up for their decade long failure to add parking with access to transit by using Northgate Link to replace bus routes into Seattle.  However, they'll continue routing ST510 into Seattle during peak commute.  Snohomish Community Transit plans to continue routes into Seattle and King County Metro is adding bus routes from Northgate.  Thus, I-5 commuters will still have access to bus routes into Seattle.

The East Link debut will end all I-90 bus routes into Seattle.  Sound Transit and King County Metro have agreed to halve current routes as part of the "bus intercept" agreement with Mercer Island.  The island will be inundated with thousands of commuters forced to transfer to and from light rail.  With capacity limited to half DSTT, Mercer Island access during peak commute could be limited.  Meanwhile thousands more will lose access to transit, adding to congestion along I-90 corridor into Seattle.

The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate the futility of extending light rail routed through the DSTT beyond Northgate to Lynnwood and beyond Angel lake to Federal Way.  If Sound Transit ignores that result, the 2023 East Link debut will demonstrate the subsequent $5 billion spent on extensions will dwarf that debacle.

Northgate Link Debut Welcome News

The April 9th announcement Northgate Link will begin revenue service on Oct 2nd was welcome but "unexpected".  The Link's Revenue Service date in the Sound Transit April 7th "Agency Progress Report: February 2021" was 26-Sept-22.  The report's Risk Management" listed the following concern:

If there is a problem during vibration certification testing and analysis, acceptance by UW may be delayed, delaying RSD (Revenue Service Date)

The vibration concern was the result of a "Master Implementation Agreement" (MIA) between Sound Transit and University of Washington regarding operation of light rail in a tunnel under the campus. 

In no event shall Sound Transit commence Revenue Service on University Properties if (Vibration and MF) Thresholds are exceeded

The concern was first included in the July 2020 report and was presumably the reason for "vibration certification testing" in January and February.  The fact it remained an issue in the April 7th February 2021 report substantiated those concerns.  Thus, the April 9th announcement for the Oct 2nd debut was "unexpected".

However it was welcome news because it will be the first demonstration whether Prop 1 extensions routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will reduce congestion.  Does the Northgate Link have the capacity for the number of peak-commute transit riders needed to reduce traffic volume on I-5?  (A 2004 PSRC 2004 study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, far less than needed during peak commute.)

Sound Transit chose to use the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle rather than add parking to increase access.  The debut will demonstrate whether replacing bus routes from Northgate into Seattle reduces I-5 congestion.  Will those forced to ride Northgate Link be turned off by the need to transfer from buses to light rail for the trip into Seattle and the hassle of accessing light rail at crowded DSTT stations and transferring back at Northgate for the return?  

Replacing bus routes into Seattle also reduces total transit capacity into the city and very little to reduce HOV lane congestion.  Will Northgate Link commuters limit access for University Link commuters?  Without added parking for access, will off-peak trains be largely empty?

What the Northgate link won't do is "add 45,000 daily passengers" as suggested in the April 10th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article heralding the debut.  That claim appears to be based on the average of the Northgate Link website claim "41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022".  It typifies ST CEO Rogoff's delusional approach to ridership limited by DSTT capacity and lack of access.  The King County Metro decision in the April 10th article to add three bus routes to the Northgate link stations also raises questions about Link capacity and ridership.

What the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate is the resulting increase in light rail operating costs.  A previous post detailed routing a 3- or 4-car light rail train the 8.4 mile to Northgate and back will add $645 to $860 to the operating costs, more than doubling the 6.3 University Link round trip.  It's not clear how much the added route lengths will add to the current $2.50 fares for University Link to University Street.  (KCM one-county fares $2.75)

Sound Transit's Northgate Link schedules for 113 weekday round trips will add between $73,000 and $97,000 depending on how many are 3 or 4 car trains.  Again, without added access, the 60% of off-peak trains will be largely empty.  

The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will allow Sound Transit to demonstrate whether a light rail extensions routed through the DSTT can reduce congestion on I-5 into Seattle. For years Sound Transit has claimed "commuters can't wait for light rail to their area".  The Traffic Lab should "dig into" the reduction in WSDOT I-5 travel times with the $2 billion extension. Also how many commuters will each of the three Northgate Link stations add and do they limit access for University Link riders.  What does the extension add to Central Link's daily fare box revenue/operating cost shortfall.

If the PSRC was correct and the Link doesn't reduce congestion it makes not sense to extend light rail to Lynnwood.  It also would make no sense to extend light rail beyond Angel Lake to Federal Way.  Especially since East Link  operation will halve the DSTT capacity to Angel Lake and fail to reduce I-90 Bridge congestion.  The lack of ridership, impact on University Link commuters, and fare box shortfall add to that failure.

At this point it's  too late to stop those extensions.  Instead we will be left with a belated recognition the PSRC was right.  Still it could limit CEO Rogoff's 2020 Budget long-term expansion plan.  It spends $96 billion over the net 20 years on a transit system expansion. resulting in a $17 billion, $1.5 billion in annual operating and maintenance costs, and no ST3 funds to pay for either.

Again, it's welcome news the debut is this year not next.  Sound Transit should be required to provide the results before getting any additional funding and prior to any 2022 budget approval. 

Why Northgate Link Delay

Previous posts have questioned why Sound Transit's Agency Progress Report Program Schedules since June 2020 have shown the Northgate Link Revenue Service was Sept 26, 2022, a year's delay from the Sept 2021 in other charts in the reports.

The April 7th release of the February 2021 Progress report continues the delay and a potential explanation, the following number 2 "Risk Management"

If there is a problem during vibration certification testing and analysis, acceptance by UW may be delayed delaying RSD (Revenue Service Date)

This issue was originally included as the number 9 "Risk Management" concern in the July 2020 report"

Operation of the Light Rail system may exceed thresholds for noise and vibration or EMI as required by the U of W and are delayed to provide further mitigation for these impacts.

Light rail train noise had been a concern for years with homes along Central Link needing sound proofing and Bellevue requiring Sound Transit shield homes hundreds of feet away from tracks and across major roadway.  The concern over  vibration is the result of a "Master Implementation Agreement" (MIA) between Sound Transit and University of Washington regarding operation of light rail in a tunnel underneath campus.  

Nearly eight years ago a post on this blog "ST HighRisk/No Reward Northgate Extension" included the following regarding why the need to meet MIA requirements for any light rail tunnel under the campus:

Protects research and instruction by defining levels of vibration and magnetic field (MF) thresholds which ST shall not exceed without advance approval by the University includes a monitoring program to assure real time compliance as well as liquidation damages if any threshold is exceeded by ST.

The tunnel risks resulted in:

ST and UW agreed upon a lump sum payment of $20.000.000 by ST to the University as consideration for the terms, conditions and easement contemplated in the MIA as well as reflecting the allocation of risks and obligations afforded to each party associated with the first two segments of the Northgate Link program on and under the Seattle Campus east of 15th and south of 45th.

They also resulted in the following tunnel design requirements:

In order to minimize vibration and MF, Sound Transit shall have a continuing obligation to employ over the term of this Agreement, the most current and effective design and material, including but not limited to quadrupole mitigation techniques at least within the limits of the University's Seattle campus, floating slabs and ultra straight track designed to produce minimum undulation and vibration, particularly at low frequencies, from the University of Washington Station to at least the northwest boundary of the University's Seattle campus.

Even with these probably expensive design features the completed tunnel light rail must demonstrate compliance during "pre-Revenue Service Test"

In no event shall Sound Transit commence Revenue Service on University Properties if (Vibration and MF) Thresholds are exceeded.

Other parts of the MIA included huge fines if the tunnel took too long or if problems during service resulted in vibration or MF exceeding limits.  The MIA assured any disputes regarding these issues would likely be resolved in favor of the University.

Again this was a known risk in 2013. Sound Transit began University Link tunnel operation in 2016.  They had ample opportunity to obtain vibration levels and magnetic field(MF) thresholds for light rail operation in a tunnel.  It's not clear whether any of the proposed mitigation techniques were incorporated in the tunnel design under the campus.

One would have thought Sound Transit was confident of being able to operate light rail trains in the tunnel under the campus before spending billions extending light rail to Northgate and beyond to Lynnwood.  Again the first indication of the potential problem was the July 2020 Agency Progress Report. (A month after the June Progress Report first showed the year delay in revenue service)

Presumably testing to determine compliance with MIA was the reason for the March 10th January2021 Progress Report "Key Project Activities"

Pre Certification Vibration testing between University of Washington Station and U District Stations completed with K1 cars, Siemens Car Testing planned 2/1/21.

The January report didn't include the vibration issue in the 9 Risk Management issues suggesting the test had shown compliance.  Instead the April 7th February 2021 Progress Report, 2 months after initial testing, included the delay and the vibration demonstration as the number 2 concern,  raising all sorts of questions.

Sound Transit needs to provide answers as to whether vibration is the reason for the delay and if so how they intend to "mitigate" the problem.

Why Northgate Link Debut Should End Prop 1

The previous three posts questioned why the Sound Transit Northgate Link extensions Revenue Service dates have been delayed until Sept 26th 2022 for the last 8 months of Agency Progress Reports. This post details why the debut either this September or next will demonstrate Sound Transit should not have routed Prop 1 light rail extensions through the DSTT.  That using the extension to replace bus transit capacity will reduce total capacity into Seattle and limit access for current Central Link riders during peak commute.  During off-peak operation, without added access, the ridership won't justify the high operating costs.

Reducing roadway congestion requires reducing traffic volume.  The standard being limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour (vph) provides 45 mph velocity.  Sound Transit made a major blunder a decade ago in not recognizing light rail routed through the DSTT Northgate Link does not have the capacity to accommodate the number of drivers needed to reduce I-5 traffic to that level during peak commute.

They could have added Northgate Link capacity with 100 bus routes an hour without spending a dime on light rail extensions.  The bus's capacity for 10,000 riders an hour would have added the equivalent of 5 lanes of capacity into Seattle on I-5. And more could be added!!  They could have been assured of 45 mph HOV lane velocity by using tolls to limit total traffic to the 2000 vph.  

Instead the Northgate Link will demonstrate, like all the Prop 1 extensions, riders added will reduce access for Central Link riders.  Sound Transit spent a decade refusing to add significant bus transit capacity into the city.  CEO Peter Rogoff's 2019 long term budget for 2017-2041 budget demonstrated his incompetence by continuing the refusal to increase bus capacity for the next 20 years.  Instead making delusional light rail ridership estimates that ignore DSTT limits.

The debut will also demonstrate the results of Sound Transit's decade long failure to increase access to public transit.  Parking with access to transit has been full for years yet Sound Transit limits additional parking to 1000 stalls at Northgate Link stations, a fraction of what's needed.  

Instead Sound Transit will use the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle.  The debut will demonstrate reducing the number of buses when parking is available does little to reduce I-5 traffic volume and congestion.  It will also demonstrate once lots are full the Northgate Link trains will be largely empty.

This lack of ridership for later buses prompted Sound Transit's 2018 "new parking management strategy" reserving parking for late arrivals.  Yet without increased access bus transit ridership didn't increase and transit ridership won't increase with Northgate Link.   

What will increase is light rail operating costs.  Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs as ~$25 per mile.  Routing a 3- or 4-car light rail train the 8.4 miles to Northgate and back will add $645 to $860 to the operating costs.  (By comparison a bus costs Sound Transit ~$10 per mile. Routing the bus the 15 mile round trip from 5th and Union to Northgate and back costs $150.)

The November 19th video detailed Sound Transit plans for initial Northgate Link operation. Weekday intervals between trains were 8 minutes during 3-hour morning and afternoon peak commutes, 10 minutes during 10 hours off peak, and 15 minutes during 2 hours of late evening.  The 113 weekday round trips from UW station to Northgate and back will add between $73,000 and $97,000 depending on how many are 3 or 4 car trains.  However, without added access, the 60% of off-peak trains will be nearly empty.

The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate extending light rail lines routed through the DSTT doesn't have the capacity to reduce congestion during peak commute.  That without added access the off-peak trains won't have the ridership to justify the operating costs. If allowed to continue congestion will increase and operating costs will create a financial black hole for the area's transportation funds.  

Delaying that recognition just adds a year of  CEO Rogoff's long-term plan to spend $96 billion over the next 20 years on a transit system expansion resulting in a $17 billion in debt,  $1.5 billion in annual operating and maintenance costs, and no ST3 funds to pay for either.