Another Year of ST Approving Financial Plan and Proposed Budget Folly

The agenda for the Dec 8th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee Meeting includes the following: 

6. Business Items

For committee final action:

B. Motion No. M2022-95: Recommending that the portions of the Proposed 2023 Budget and Transit improvement Plan reviewed by the System Expansion Committee be forwarded by the Finance and Audit Committee to the Board with a do-pass recommendation.

The motion personifies a decade of a Sound Transit Board made up of “well minded” elected officials with no understanding of what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit should be used to provide transit for those who can’t drive or choose not to drive to destinations and to reduce congestion for those who do.  That doing so requires providing those seeking to use transit with access to transit capacity to desired destinations.   

Instead, the Sound Transit Board apparently perceives its job is to implement Prop 1 and ST3 “Voter approved extensions”.  They’ve chosen to ignore the fact both voter approvals were the result of delusional extension ridership projections.  That Sound Transit refuses to add parking to increase access to transit or acknowledge light rail spine extensions don’t increase transit capacity into the city.  Thus, ridership added by extensions will only reduce access for current commuters.  

The October 2021 Northgate Link debut exemplified those failures.  Sound Transit’s website had projected the Link would add 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022.  Prior to the debut, the Seattle Times Traffic had heralded the Link as “Transit Transformed” promising the Link’s three stations would add 42,000 to 49,000 riders.  

 

Yet Sound Transit has yet to release the ridership added, no longer providing any quarterly service delivery performance reports.  Ending reports for service provided, riders added at each light rail station, and riders added by each bus route. Also ending reports for costs per boarder and fare box recovery of those costs for each transit mode.    

Instead, the result was reflected in Sound Transit’s 2022 budget prediction only 43,000 “Average Weekday Boardings” for the entire Link, less than the 48,600 predicted for 2021 budget, prior to Northgate debut.   The budget predicted the Link extension added costs, with $14.92 cost per boarding, a 30% increase over $11.67, 2021 prediction.  Both, presumably the result of Sound Transit’s recognition of the Link’s failure to provide commuters with increased access and transit capacity into Seattle.  

Sound Transit’s October 2023 Budget doesn't include any comparable “Link Budget Highlights”, “Service Provided, Boardings, Costs per Boarding, or Farebox Recovery.  Thus, it’s unclear what their year-over-year predictions with Northgate Link operation.  Yet, the budget’s Long Range Financial Plan, Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart still shows Link ridership increasing from 18 million in 2022 to 62 million in 2026.  Presumably because of extensions to Lynnwood, Federal Way, and Redmond.   

However, none of those extensions significantly increase parking for access, the number of transit vehicles per hour, or the capacity of those vehicles.  Sound Transit plans to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle reduces transit capacity into the city.  Sound Transit waits until 2032 for the West Seattle and 2037 for Ballard extensions to add transit capacity into downtown.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee on Dec. 8th will recommend approving the 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget.  A budget that reflects Sound Transit’s apparent goal to implement “voter approved” link extensions rather than reduce area’s congestion.  A budget that ignores the Northgate Link demonstration of the need for access and transit capacity.  Another year and billions spent on extensions that increase operating costs, do nothing to reduce congestion into the city, and reduce access for current riders.