My Candidacy For U.S. Senate

 It’s time for New Year’s resolutions so this year it’s to file as a candidate for the U.S Senate.  It culminates a decade of attempts to use the Voters’ Pamphlet, primarily to expose the failure of those responsible to reduce the area’s congestion.  As with the previous nine, this filing is with no expectation or desire to win but primarily to provide Puget Sound area residents with details of an inept Sound Transit Board and WSDOT.  

Filing for U.S Senate also allows me to provide residents throughout the state the option of voting for someone who shares their concern with Democrats dominating state and local governments and most of the media.  Doesn't believe "white supremacy is the country's top security threat".  Doesn't believe the country is systemically racist or that teaching the 1619 Project or Critical Race Theory benefits the country.  Who also recognizes the futility of the state's attempt to reduce CO2 emissions when the entire country only emits 15% of the total. That any CO2 savings from Electric Vehicles is largely offset by the emissions from the fossil-fueled power plants needed to provide the energy to charge their batteries.  (More on those concerns on later posts.) 

However, the most immediate goal is to inform area residents the Sound Transit Board continues its decade of failing to understand what’s needed to reduce congestion into Seattle. That reducing congestion requires attracting commuters to public transit with access to routes to their desired destination. That a decade ago they could have done so by adding parking with BRT routes along limited access bus routes into the city.  Instead Sound Transit plans to use Prop I extensions to replace current routes into Seattle, despite the fact many commuters don't like transferring to and from light rail for their ride into and out of Seattle. Reducing the number of buses on I-5 and I-90 reduces transit capacity into the city, does little to reduce HOV lane congestion, and nothing for GP lane congestion.  

The Northgate Link debut in October “likely” demonstrated that result. Sound Transit’s website had predicted 41,000 to 49,000 riders in 2022 and the Seattle Times Traffic Lab had heralded the debut as “Transit Transformed”, anticipating 42,000 to 49,000 riders with the Link's three stations.  Yet neither has released any Northgate Link results. The “likely” reason, without added parking for access, ridership is a fraction of predictions.  

The Sound Transit Board’s Dec 16th meeting to approve the 2022 Budget and 2022 Transit Improvement Plan (TIP) seemingly ignored the Northgate Link results.  (The Board stopped archiving videos of their meetings last February and there’s no indication the Seattle Times Traffic Lab watcher the meeting.)   Again, the likely reason, the October debut demonstrated that without added access, Prop 1 extension ridership will be a fraction of Sound Transit predictions.  That lack of ridership, along with higher operating costs with Prop 1’s longer routes, will dwarf farebox revenue, reducing operating cost recover to a fraction of Sound Transit 40% target. 

However, the lack of access is only part of the Prop 1 problem.  They are all routed through a DSTT which a 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, limited capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, a fraction of what’s needed during peak commuter.   Thus, during peak commute those with access to Northgate Link will reduce capacity for University Link riders.  Once access ends, the trains will be empty, exacerbating farebox revenue shortfall. 

Yet the Board’s Dec 16th meeting debut’s response was to continue the current 125 trips a day, approve $1.7 billion extending Prop 1 in 2022, and authorize $22 billion on TIP; completing the extensions with no money in either for parking. It’s a debacle they’ll continue to add $1.7 billion to the ~$8 billion already spent. lt’s a disaster they intend to spend $22 billion completing them without  adding any significant parking for access to even its limited capacity.  Especially with a Northgate Link debut portending similar results with all Prop 1 extensions. 

 It’s appropriate my candidacy this year is for the US Senate. The FHWA has been one of Sound Transit’s Lynnwood Link extension enablers. The "Federal Highway Administration Center for Innovative Financial Support"  provided a December 19, 2018, $1.17 billion grant with a $1.991 contingent commitment for the $3.12 billion Link.  It included a Sound Transit, “Project Profile: Lynnwood Link Extension” referring to a Lynnwood Link Extension Project Website with “Projected Ridership:  47,000 – 55,000 daily riders by 2026”. 

I'd previously emailed Senator Cantwell blog posts detailing Sound Transit's Lynnwood ridership projections were not only delusional they may be grounds for legal action for fraud.  Senator Cantwell ignored them as I’m sure Senator Murray would have. The Northgate Link debut results, when released, will demonstrate the lack of access reduced ridership to a fraction of 41,000 to 49,000 projections.  The Lynnwood Link extension does nothing to increase DSTT capacity and adds a mere 1000 parking stalls at North and South Shoreline Stations, a tiny fraction of added access needed for even its limited capacity.  

One of my goals as a candidate for US Senate is to expose how the Northgate Link debut portended Sound Transit's Prop 1 failure.  

Sound Transit's "Pretend Board" Incompetence

 Every resident within the Sound Transit service area should be concerned with the Sound Transit Board's Dec. 16th approval of the 2022 Budget and Transportation Improvement Plan (TIP).  It typified the actions of elected officials who've spent a decade pretending to be directors of a transit organization without understanding what constitutes effective public transit.  They've never asked questions and unanimously approved any requests.  (The Board no longer archives videos of meetings, minimizing exposing their "compliance".)

It's this "Pretend Board" incompetence that prompted this blog's ten-year attempt to expose.  That they never recognized reducing congestion required attracting commuters by increasing access to transit routes to their desired destination.  Central Link succeeded because large numbers of commuters lived within walking distance of stations or had access to bus routes to the stations.  (The Board refused to implement a transfer station at UW stadium that would have benefitted thousands of commuters from both sides of the lake with a 520BRT/light rail connection.)  They've delayed the Ballard to West Seattle Link that would've benefitted from commuter access to stations. 

However, all of the Prop 1 extensions beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge, and beyond SeaTac require parking for access.  Yet the Board has refused to add significant parking despite a 2016 WSDOT "Park and Ride Inventory" indicating lots with access to Prop 1 stations have been "fully in use" for years.  That without added parking transit ridership can't increase.

The "Pretend Board" also never recognized transit capacity is limited by the number of vehicles per hour and the number of riders in each vehicle. A 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded DSTT limited the number of vehicles and capacity in each vehicle to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. Prop 1 extensions beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac do nothing to increase that capacity.  Yet the Board approved a "2019 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget" predicting Link ridership would increase from 26 million in 2019 to 162 million in 2041.

Multiple blog post have opined the Northgate Link debut would finally demonstrate the validity of these concerns.  That Northgate Link ridership would be a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 predicted on the Sound Transit website.  The Seattle Times Traffic Lab had heralded the debut as "Transit Transformed" primising its "3 stations attracting 42,000 to 49,000 riders". Both should've been eager to report on the initial results, yet neither has done so.  The likely reason they haven't was the Link's ridership was a small fraction of predictions.

Prior to the Dec 16th meeting, I'd emailed the Board members the previous post detailing these concerns.  They denied  ever receiving any "Public Comment".  (There's no indication the Seattle Times Traffic Lab project that "digs into thorny transportation transportation issues" even watched the meeting.) Instead they proceeded to approve Resolution No. R2121-21 detailing the '"2022 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget" and 2022 Transit  Improvement Plan (TIP).  The budget included a $615 million loan and $1,767 million spending on Link.

The budget's list of system expansion projects neglected to include any additional parking. The budget also neglected to include a "Service Provided" section with predictions for trips provided, ridership expected, cost per rider, or farebox recovery.  The 2022 TIP included spending $22 billion on "authorized projects".  The resolution also claimed the "Proposed 2022 Budget and 2022 TIP are fully affordable within the agency's current financial projections".  The entire process took less than 15 minutes.  Again no questions were asked and R2121-21 was unanimously approved.

The bottom line is the entire area has already paid a heavy price for the "Pretend Board's" decade of failing to add parking with access to BRT routes into Seattle.  That the billions they've already spent on Prop 1 extensions will do nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  The Board's Dec 16th meeting chose to ignore Northgate Link's debut results that "likely" demonstrated that failure. 

It's already a debacle the "Pretend Board" has allowed Sound Transit to spend another $1.767 billion next year extending the Link; adding to the $8-10 billion already spent.  It's a "disaster" they've been allowed to authorize spending $22 billion more over the next 5 years completing the extensions.  The former being enabled by an equally inept Seattle Times Traffic Lab with no indication they're interested in the later.

Sound Transit Board Ignores Northgate Link Debacle

The previous post detailed why a Seattle Times article resulting from the paper's Traffic Lab project "digging into" the Northgate Link debut's ridership would result in a headline "Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle".  That the lack of access to the Link from parking near light rail stations or from near bus routes to stations limited ridership to a fraction of the 42,000 to 49,000 the paper had heralded as "Transit Transformed" prior to the debut.

That even if they added access with parking, the DSTT would limit ridership to a fraction of what's needed to reduce I-5 peak commute congestion with nearly empty light rail trains during the rest of the commute.  That the Link debut demonstrated, what posts on this blog have been predicting for nearly a decade, that Sound Transit Prop 1 extensions through DSTT won't reduce congestion into Seattle.

That light rail routed through DSTT should have never been extended beyond UW station, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTAc.  The Northgate Link debut's ridership will demonstrate predictions for those extension in the Sound Transit 3 Map voters approved in 2016 were delusional.  That ST3 should have been limited to funding Ballard-to-West Seattle light rail with ridership within walking distance of stations.

Instead Sound Transit refuses to release Link ridership data.  Their October and November board meetings, during which initial Link results were presumably presented, were "off-air".  The November 18th Board meeting approved continuing the current 125 daily round trips in 2022, apparently satisfied with the result.  The agendas for the December 16th Sound Transit Board Finance and Audit Committee meeting and subsequent Board meeting show Sound Transit has chosen to ignore the Link debut's results.

The Finance Committees agenda included the following:

8 Business Items                                                                                  For Recommendation to the Board:                                                         B Resolution No. R2021-21: Adopting an annual budget for the period from January 1 through December 31, 2022.

The subsequent Sound Transit Board meeting agenda included the response:

7 Business Items                                                                                       C.  Resolution No. R2021-21: Adopting and annual budget for the period from January 1 through December 31, 2022.

 Clearly, Resolution No. R2021-21, adopting the 2022 Financial Pan and Proposed Budget, is destined for approval on December 16th.  The resolution was included in a 10-page summary entitled:

Adopting the Proposed 2022 Budget and 2022 Transit Improvement Plan

It detailed the proposed 2022 budget will spend $1,767.1 million on Link extensions, with $615 million for a TIFIA loan.  The 2022 Transit improvement Plan (TIP) will spend $22.2 billion on "authorized project allocations".  Again, projects that won't increases transit ridership into Seattle rather than on Ballard-to-West Seattle that would.  Yet the 2022 budget ignores Link results with predictions ridership will increase from 22 million in 2019 to 60 million in 2021 with TIP and to 160 million in 2046 with ST3.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board approval of Resolution No. R2021-21 will show they've ignored the Northgate Link results. Sooner or later they'll be forced to release the Link's ridership.  However, the Traffic Lab has shown no interest in "digging into" the Link ridership.   (Sound Transit's refused to release any ridership data since the Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report.).  Until they do Sound Transit will "likely" continue spending billions on Prop 1 extension that won't increase transit ridership into Seattle rather than on Ballard-to-West Seattle that will.

Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle

 (The below post was prompted by the Seattle Times request for headlines readers would like to see in 2022)

Prior to the October 2nd Northgate Link debut, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab heralded it as "Transit Transformed" claiming it will "attract a combined 42,000 to 49,000 riders a day".  However, since the Link's debut, Sound Transit has yet to publicly release any ridership data.  In fact the Board has refused to release any ridership data reports since the Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report.

The Sound Transit Board held the October and November meeting "off-air" so the presumed presentation of the Link's initial results wasn't available to the public.  A Sound Transit presentation at the November 18th Board meeting maintaining the current 125 Link round trips in 2022 Service schedule was approved for implementation. A clear indication they were satisfied with the debut.

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab should use its purported responsibility to "dig-into" whether the Northgate Link debut's results support the Board's assessment.  Sound Transit would presumably feel "compelled" to give them access to the data.  When they do the likely result will be a Traffic Lab headline, "Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle"

The reason being the article would "likely" report ridership was only a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 riders the Sound Transit Northgate Link extension website continues to predict for 2022.  The problem, a lack of access to the Link.  Not enough commuters live within walking distance of the three stations.  Those forced to drive to stations for access were limited to the 1525 parking stalls at Northgate.  

Sound Transit increased Link access by terminating bus routes at Northgate and Roosevelt stations.  However even those commuters needed access to parking near bus stops.  The lack of access to parking near bus stops or at Link stations limited ridership to a fraction of predictions.

It's only a question of when Sound Transit or the Seattle Times acknowledge the Northgate Link debut portends a Prop 1 debacle.  That it finally demonstrated Prop 1 won't attract the number of commuters needed to reduce roadway congestion. Not enough commuters live within waking distance of stations, could park near stations, or can be dropped off at stations.  That commuters dropped off at stations by bus routes also needed access to buses by walking to, parking near, or dropping-off at bus stops.

The vast majority of  riders will access Link from parking at light rail stations or from parking near connecting bus routes.  Yet Sound Transit has neglected to add significant parking for a decade.  The latest WSDOT "Park and Ride inventory" for the Sound Transit service area is for Oct-Dec 2016.  It indicated lots with access to Prop 1 light-rail stations or connecting bus routes not only didn't have the needed capacity, they were already "fully in use".  Publlc transit ridership can't increase without  added public parking for access.

The bottom line is Sound Transit should have never extended Prop 1 extensions routed through DSTT beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac.  That without added access to parking the extensions won't increase ridership. Even with increased access the extensions won't have the capacity needed for peak commutes and during off-peak train cars will largely be empty.  The result, Prop 1 extension operating costs will dwarf farebox revenue.  

A competent Traffic Lab article headlined "Northgate Link Debut Portends a Prop 1 Debacle" from lack of access could expedite Prop 1 demise.