A previous post opined a public transit system CEO’s responsibility should be to oversee providing transit for those who can’t or don’t choose to drive and to reduce congestion for those who do. A competent transit CEO would recognize that spending billions on “voter approved” light rail spine extensions won’t do either. Instead, the new CEO’s leadership has resulted in a “2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget” that continues a decade of Sound Transit failure.
The 2023 budget’s “Long Range Financial Plan” continues expanding the funding requirements from the $54B voters approved in 2016 to $149.1B in 2046. It ends with a “Tax Backed Debt” of $29B in 2046 with ST3 taxes that “Backed that Debt” ending in 2041.
The long-range plan’s “Fare Revenue 2017—2046” chart claim Link Light Rail fares would increase from $20 million to $370 million in 2046 reflected delusional projections Link ridership would increase from 22 million to 150 million. It also showed Sound Transit’s failure to recognize the benefits of added bus service with no anticipated fare revenue or ridership increase.
The video of the November 10th System Expansion Committee meeting only addressed the new CEO’s 2023 budget. The 172-page budget was more about process than product, having extensive details on the process of how more than $3 billion will be spent on transit mode expansions and total operating costs but nothing on the product. The product being what service will each transit mode provide, how many riders do they expect, how much it will cost for each rider, and what is each modes expected fare box recovery?
A major portion of the 2023 budget is the ~$1,250 million spent funding “voter approved extensions” to Lynnwood, Redmond, and Federal Way. None of those extensions increase transit capacity with more light rail cars per minute or more riders per car. Yet, the 2023 budget in the “Ridership by Mode 2017—2046” chart predicts Link light rail ridership will increase from 24 million in 2017 to 62 million in 2026 when the extensions are completed.
The new CEO’s 2023 budget also exemplifies Sound Transit decade of failing to recognize reducing freeway congestion requires attracting more commuters with added access to transit. The access comes from stations within walking distance of transit stations, parking near light rail stations, or access to bus routes to stations.
None of the potential Link stations are within walking distance of the number of commuters needed to reduce congestion. All the parking with access to Link stations or bus routes to the stations is already "fully in use". The additional commuters needed to reduce congestion won’t have access without added parking, access to Link stations or bus routes to stations.
The Northgate Link debut exemplified Sound Transit's lack-of-access problem. As with all of the light rail spine extensions, they attempt to make up for the failure to add parking for access by requiring bus riders using existing parking ride Link rather than bus routes into Seattle. Replacing bus routes does nothing to increase transit ridership, reduce I-5 congestion, and reduces total transit capacity into Seattle.
The failure to provide access was presumably reflected in the Northgate Link’s failure to attract ridership. Yet, Sound Transit refuses to release a quarterly Service Delivery Performance Report that would have shown only a fraction of the predicted 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders were added by the three Link stations. Portending a lack-of-access problem with all the light rail spine extensions. In response the 2023 budget spends $13 million on a System Access Policy attempting to “manage parking demand” by “maximizing efficient use of available parking resources". A dubious process at best.
To be fair, much of the 2023 budget pre-ordained the new CEO’s arrival. However, the November 10th video of the 2023 budget presentation to the Board’s “System Expansion Committee indicates she’s willing to continue the debacle with this year's installment.
No comments:
Post a Comment