The WSDOT presentation to the
Bellevue City Council concerning I-405 HOT status can best be described as, at
least for most commuters, attempting to make a “silk purse out of a sow’s ear”. While HOT is a “silk purse” for transit riders, vanpoolers, carpoolers,
and those willing to pay the tolls it’s a “sow’s ear” for the vast majority of
commuters who are getting very little out of the $484 million the WSDOT spent
implementing HOT between Lynnwood and Bellevue.
The number of transit riders benefitting
is severely limited by the lack of P&R stalls and bus routes during the
peak commute hours. It’s not clear
how many are vanpoolers, but the
+3 HOV requirement has made carpooling far more difficult. The WSDOT “silk purse” approach was to “maximize”
the purported velocity improvements with HOT and “minimize” the number of those paying the tolls and the
amount they had to pay.
For example they averaged the
velocity improvements over the 5:00 – 9:00 am morning commutes and 3:00 -7:00
p.m. evening commutes instead of the two hours when traffic was heaviest in
both directions. They chose
to attribute the improvements to HOT despite the fact that additional lanes had
been added in both directions between Bellevue and Bothell, the area with the
most congestion.
Their “silk purse” approach
averaged the tolls paid over the entire year to assert 56% of HOT users only
paid 75 cents and that only 3.5 % paid $8.00 and 3.3% paid the maximum $10.00
tolls. The “sow’s ear” reality was
that average tolls increased from $1.75 to $2.99 during the year, a 70%
increase. Obviously
commuters paid far higher tolls over the last quarter. The number of those paying tolls
quarterly increased from 3,000,000 to 3,550,000, about 18% during the
year. The fact that an 18%
increase in those paying the tolls increased average fares by 70% exemplifies
the HOT “sow’s ear” reality, “the more paying the toll the more they each pay”.
What’s clear is the WSDOT needs to
provide both HOT and GP velocities during the peak two hour morning and afternoon commutes and the percentage of those paying the different tolls for the last quarter of
2016. They’re surely needed
for the legislature to decide “whether HOT is a good thing or not”. The enabling legislation also required HOT revenue “pay
for itself and achieve 45mph over 90% of the time during daily commute".
The “silk purse” approach heralded
the fact toll revenue had exceeded operating costs sufficient to fund a “peak
shoulder lane”. The “sow’s ear”
reality was whatever the unspecified profit, it was not likely to meet the
payments required for the $484 million spent on I-405 HOT. To conclude “profitability" isn’t a problem “suggests” legislators
are willing to accept far more commuters being forced to pay higher fares in
the future.
While the average HOT lane
velocity along the entire route achieves the 45 mph 89% of the 4-hour morning
and afternoon “peak periods”, the Bothell-to-Bellevue section did so less than
80% of the time. Again the WSDOT “silk
purse” used average velocities for the full year and for their 4-hour peak
periods. The “sow’s ear” reality would have shown the
results over the last quarter available and the one or two hours when most
commuters are using the lanes.
What’s “disappointing” is the
legislatures purported “requirements” didn’t include any benefit for I-405 GP
lane commuters. They were
also promised benefits from HOT, apparently on the assumption the anticipated numbers of
commuters willing to pay HOT fees would be greater than the loss of +2HOV carpoolers
due to the +3HOV requirement. Yet
GP velocities Northbound only increased from 28 to 29 mph despite the fact another
lane had been added. Surely
using one of the northbound HOT lanes for GP would have substantially increased
average velocities, especially during peak commute.
Unfortunately Rep. Clibborn, the chairwomen
of the House Transportation Committee, apparently doesn’t understand the “sow’s
ear” reality of the I-405 HOT “pilot program”. She refuses to “look at bills to end tolling between
Bellevue and Lynnwood” claiming the tolls are “the only unallocated source of
revenue generated in the state”.
(I suspect her Mercer Island constituents, as well as others using the I-90 Bridge, will be “less than pleased” if
her HOT support allows the WSDOT to proceed with their 2006 plans to initiate
HOT on the bridge when Sound Transit closes the center roadway.)
Fortunately Sen. King, the
chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, is at least waiting until the “experiment
is scheduled to end in September”.
Hopefully he and others will recognize the disparity between the likely
WSDOT “pink purse” assessment and the “sow’s ear” reality of HOT. Commuters throughout the area will pay a heavy price if they
don’t.
