Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle

 (The below post was prompted by the Seattle Times request for headlines readers would like to see in 2022)

Prior to the October 2nd Northgate Link debut, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab heralded it as "Transit Transformed" claiming it will "attract a combined 42,000 to 49,000 riders a day".  However, since the Link's debut, Sound Transit has yet to publicly release any ridership data.  In fact the Board has refused to release any ridership data reports since the Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report.

The Sound Transit Board held the October and November meeting "off-air" so the presumed presentation of the Link's initial results wasn't available to the public.  A Sound Transit presentation at the November 18th Board meeting maintaining the current 125 Link round trips in 2022 Service schedule was approved for implementation. A clear indication they were satisfied with the debut.

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab should use its purported responsibility to "dig-into" whether the Northgate Link debut's results support the Board's assessment.  Sound Transit would presumably feel "compelled" to give them access to the data.  When they do the likely result will be a Traffic Lab headline, "Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle"

The reason being the article would "likely" report ridership was only a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 riders the Sound Transit Northgate Link extension website continues to predict for 2022.  The problem, a lack of access to the Link.  Not enough commuters live within walking distance of the three stations.  Those forced to drive to stations for access were limited to the 1525 parking stalls at Northgate.  

Sound Transit increased Link access by terminating bus routes at Northgate and Roosevelt stations.  However even those commuters needed access to parking near bus stops.  The lack of access to parking near bus stops or at Link stations limited ridership to a fraction of predictions.

It's only a question of when Sound Transit or the Seattle Times acknowledge the Northgate Link debut portends a Prop 1 debacle.  That it finally demonstrated Prop 1 won't attract the number of commuters needed to reduce roadway congestion. Not enough commuters live within waking distance of stations, could park near stations, or can be dropped off at stations.  That commuters dropped off at stations by bus routes also needed access to buses by walking to, parking near, or dropping-off at bus stops.

The vast majority of  riders will access Link from parking at light rail stations or from parking near connecting bus routes.  Yet Sound Transit has neglected to add significant parking for a decade.  The latest WSDOT "Park and Ride inventory" for the Sound Transit service area is for Oct-Dec 2016.  It indicated lots with access to Prop 1 light-rail stations or connecting bus routes not only didn't have the needed capacity, they were already "fully in use".  Publlc transit ridership can't increase without  added public parking for access.

The bottom line is Sound Transit should have never extended Prop 1 extensions routed through DSTT beyond UW, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTac.  That without added access to parking the extensions won't increase ridership. Even with increased access the extensions won't have the capacity needed for peak commutes and during off-peak train cars will largely be empty.  The result, Prop 1 extension operating costs will dwarf farebox revenue.  

A competent Traffic Lab article headlined "Northgate Link Debut Portends a Prop 1 Debacle" from lack of access could expedite Prop 1 demise.