The Sound Transit Board decided to replace a review of the 2022 "Financial Plan and Proposed Budget" on the November 18th meeting agenda with the following:
7. Business Items A. Resolution No. R2021-19 Adopting the 2022 Service Plan, and authorizing the chief executive officer to implement recommended service changes in 2022.
The 2022 Service Plan schedule for October 2 2021--March 19, 2022 included 125 trips from Northgate. A significant increase from the 84 trips the board had approved during the November 19th 2020 meeting. The new schedule has trains every 8 minutes during the 3 1/2 hour morning and afternoon peak commutes, 10 minutes during ~ 9 hours off-peak, and 15 minutes during early morning and late night. The Board chose to have the meeting "off-air" so there was no way to learn why they implemented the 2022 service plan changes.
Several posts on this blog have opined the Northgate Link debut would demonstrate Sound Transit should have never extended Central Link beyond UW station. The PSRC in 2004 concluded the DSTT limited capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction, far less than needed to reduce I-5 congestion during peak commute. Spending $2.7B over 5 years to reduce congestion on 5 lanes of I-5 with 4-car trains every 8 minutes has always seemed absurd. Light rail car operating costs will result in the extension from UW to Northgate adding ~$1000 to round trip costs
The only access for the vast majority of commuters is parking near light rail stations. Sound Transit has spent a decade refusing to add significant parking. Instead choosing to provide riders by terminating bus routes at light rail stations. Without added parking for access, many of the trains will have few riders, exacerbating average costs for those who ride. Thus, if the Board wanted to reduce operating costs the 2022 service plan change could terminate many routes at UW. Instead they chose to reduce frequency for several ST Express routes.
Their dilemma will be how and when they choose to expose that the additional $125,000 in operating costs for the extensions attracted only a fraction of the 42,000 to 49,000 predicted. The problem being only a fraction of that number had access to parking near stations or chose to ride buses requiring they transfer to and from light rail for their commutes into and out of Seattle.
The bottom line is over the short term Sound Transit should have continued with the routes needed to accommodate the vast majority of those riding the Link. Replace early morning and late night routes and some of the off-peak routes with bus routes to reduce operating costs. (A round trip from 5th&University to Northgate would cost less than $200.) Instead they chose to reduce far less expensive ST Express routes doing little to reduce operating cost. The meeting being "off-air" there's no way of knowing why the Board's decision.
Over the long term Sound Transit needs to recognize DSTT limits on Line 1 capacity prevent it from ever having the capacity needed to reduce I-5 congestion during peak commute. That extension to Lynnwood does nothing to increase that capacity, it only increases operating costs. It's only a question of when the Board acknowledges the Link debut's implications for all of the Prop 1 extensions. The Seattle Times Traffic Lab has shown no interest in doing so.
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