The previous post detailed why a Seattle Times article resulting from the paper's Traffic Lab project "digging into" the Northgate Link debut's ridership would result in a headline "Northgate Link Debut Portends Prop 1 Debacle". That the lack of access to the Link from parking near light rail stations or from near bus routes to stations limited ridership to a fraction of the 42,000 to 49,000 the paper had heralded as "Transit Transformed" prior to the debut.
That even if they added access with parking, the DSTT would limit ridership to a fraction of what's needed to reduce I-5 peak commute congestion with nearly empty light rail trains during the rest of the commute. That the Link debut demonstrated, what posts on this blog have been predicting for nearly a decade, that Sound Transit Prop 1 extensions through DSTT won't reduce congestion into Seattle.
That light rail routed through DSTT should have never been extended beyond UW station, across I-90 Bridge, or beyond SeaTAc. The Northgate Link debut's ridership will demonstrate predictions for those extension in the Sound Transit 3 Map voters approved in 2016 were delusional. That ST3 should have been limited to funding Ballard-to-West Seattle light rail with ridership within walking distance of stations.
Instead Sound Transit refuses to release Link ridership data. Their October and November board meetings, during which initial Link results were presumably presented, were "off-air". The November 18th Board meeting approved continuing the current 125 daily round trips in 2022, apparently satisfied with the result. The agendas for the December 16th Sound Transit Board Finance and Audit Committee meeting and subsequent Board meeting show Sound Transit has chosen to ignore the Link debut's results.
The Finance Committees agenda included the following:
8 Business Items For Recommendation to the Board: B Resolution No. R2021-21: Adopting an annual budget for the period from January 1 through December 31, 2022.
The subsequent Sound Transit Board meeting agenda included the response:
7 Business Items C. Resolution No. R2021-21: Adopting and annual budget for the period from January 1 through December 31, 2022.
Clearly, Resolution No. R2021-21, adopting the 2022 Financial Pan and Proposed Budget, is destined for approval on December 16th. The resolution was included in a 10-page summary entitled:
Adopting the Proposed 2022 Budget and 2022 Transit Improvement Plan
It detailed the proposed 2022 budget will spend $1,767.1 million on Link extensions, with $615 million for a TIFIA loan. The 2022 Transit improvement Plan (TIP) will spend $22.2 billion on "authorized project allocations". Again, projects that won't increases transit ridership into Seattle rather than on Ballard-to-West Seattle that would. Yet the 2022 budget ignores Link results with predictions ridership will increase from 22 million in 2019 to 60 million in 2021 with TIP and to 160 million in 2046 with ST3.
The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board approval of Resolution No. R2021-21 will show they've ignored the Northgate Link results. Sooner or later they'll be forced to release the Link's ridership. However, the Traffic Lab has shown no interest in "digging into" the Link ridership. (Sound Transit's refused to release any ridership data since the Q1 2021 Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Report.). Until they do Sound Transit will "likely" continue spending billions on Prop 1 extension that won't increase transit ridership into Seattle rather than on Ballard-to-West Seattle that will.
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