l looked forward to viewing the November 18th Sound Transit Board meeting in hopes of seeing initial Northgate Link debut results. Countless posts on this blog had opined Sound Transit should have never extended light rail routed through DSTT beyond UW station. However, prior to the debut, the Seattle Times Traffic Lab had heralded it as "Transit Transformed", claiming it "will attract a combined 42,000 to 49,000 riders a day".
The November meeting could have answered how many had ridden the Link daily since October 2nd debut. It might also have provided the Board's response to the October 29th release of the "2022 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget".
The 2022 budget review had been included in the September and October meeting agendas. However the November meeting agenda neglected to include any Northgate Link ridership results and replaced the 2022 budget review with the following:
7. Business Items
A. Resolution No. R2021-19 Adopting the 2022 Service Plan, and authorizing the chief executive officer to implement recommended service changes in 2022.
The October 29th 2022 budget hadn't included any service plan. The Board was presumably referring to a 2022 Service Plan in an August 12th Transit Development Plan. It included a schedule requiring eighty-four 4-car-train round trips from UW to Northgate and back. (A substantial reduction from earlier 117 Central Link scheduled trips, increasing delay times between trains for commuters) An October 11th post on this blog had used Sound Transit 2021 budget light rail car operating costs to estimate the 8.4-mile round trips would add $84,152 to daily operating costs.
Again, the November meeting could have answered how many of the 42,000 to 49,000 riders did the Northgate Link add, what prompted the 2022 service changes, and what were the recommended changes. Whatever the answers they remain "unavailable" as the meeting itself was "off-air".
The Northgate Link results should not have been a surprise. The Board should have been aware a "Sound Transit Service Delivery Performance Report 2021 Q1" concluded Northgate Link ridership was 58.7% lower than 2021 budget predictions, clearly portending ridership was a problem prior to Link debut.
The latest financial results prior to the debut, the "Quarterly Financial Performance Report Q2 2021" confirmed the result was a large increase in costs per rider. Actual 2021 June YTD operating costs per rider were $25.82, 43% higher than $18.10 budget predictions.
The Board should have been concerned a 4-mile University Link trip into Seattle or 10-mile trip from Angel Lake would cost an average of $25.82 per rider. It's not clear how many miles the "average" boarder rode the link or the cost per mile for the ride.
The bottom line is the 4.2-mile Northgate Link doubled the University Link operating cost, adding $85,152 to daily operating costs with the 2022 Service Plan. The Sound Transit Board's decision to have the November meeting for discussing changes to service plan "off-air" indicates the Link failed to meet ridership predictions.
That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab was correct with its claim the debut would be a "Transit Transformation". Not because it would attract riders to light rail but because it didn't. A clear warning for future Prop 1 extensions results.
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