The Settle Times refers to Traffic Lab as a "project that digs into the region's thorny transportation issues". It's not clear what "thorny issue" led to the December 17th Traffic Lab article "Sound Transit CEO will skip $21,000 pay boosts next year". It's also not clear how his decision to give 1100 employees $3000 for "successful performance" comports to "his agency working toward containing operating costs"
What the Traffic Lab article neglected to "dig into" was the debacle awaiting the area from the Sound Transit Board approval of Rogoff's 2021 budget, also on December 17th. The CEO they heralded for skipping a $21,000 raise was still going to get $379,000 next year for his plan to spend $2.5 billion as next year's installment of $96 billion by 2041 from ST3 approval.
More than $1.5 billion will be spent in 2021 on light rail spine extensions routed through the DSTT that will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle. The result in 2041 will be $20 billion owed in bonds and light rail extensions too expensive to operate.
Sound Transit's "Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021 Budget" was presented to the board's Finance and Audit Committee on October 14th so the Traffic Lab had ample opportunity to "dig into it". The budget can best be described as an "overview" with a series of charts showing the pandemic's impact on both the "Long Range Financial Plan" and the "Proposed 2121 Budget". The primary result of the "Long Range Financial Plan" will be a 4-year delay in the West Seattle-to-Ballard link and an increase in bond debt in 2041 from $17 billion to $20 billion when ST3 funding ends.
However the 2041 bond debt is just the "tip of the iceberg" regarding Sound Transit long-range financial problems. The 2021 budget did not include long-range forecasts for debt service payments, ridership, or operating costs for the transit modes. The first budget to do so was the 2019 Financial Plan & Proposed Budget". It included charts showing a "Summary of Revenues, Expenditures and Borrowing" and "Ridership by Mode" projections from 2017 through 2041.
The expenditures included costs for system expansion, transit mode capital purchases, and mode operating costs. The 2041 projections were $2.7 billion in expenditures and $1.2 billion in debt service payments. The 2041 "Ridership by Mode" predictions were 160 million link light rail riders out of 190 million total. Rogoff continued Sound Transit's decade-long refusal to add bus transit capacity for another 20 years.
The 2019 budget "iceberg" should have been the budget projections for 2041 to spend $3.9 billion in costs for 190 million riders or $20.53 per rider. Any transit board member with a modicum of competence would have recognized the folly of a budget spending billions on any light rail extensions that cost more than $20 per rider.
Operating costs for the light rail spine extensions far exceed any rational benefits from added riders, especially when they don't increase capacity through the DSTT. Any competent transit board member would recognize DSTT limited light rail ridership to a fraction of Rogoff"s 160 million, multiplying the cost per rider. Unless another light rail route was added the only way to increase transit capacity into Seattle was additional bus routes.
Even more important, a competent board member for any organization would've required some explanation as to how the expenditures would be paid in 2042 when ST3 funding ended. Instead the Sound Transit Board's response was to extend Rogoff's contract for three years with a hefty raise. The Traffic Lab either didn't "dig into the issue" or didn't consider the 2019 budget projections for 2041 and beyond a problem.
Rogoff's 2021 budget, after 2 years and $1.5 billion spent extending the spine to Lynnwood and Federal Way, exacerbated the problem. A competent transit CEO would have recognized the lost revenue necessitated diverting spending from high cost to construct and operate extensions to far lower cost West Seattle-to-Ballard link.
Instead Rogoff's 2021 budget delayed the less costly link for four years and borrowed an $700 million to increase system expansion funding with $1.5 billion spent on extensions beyond Northgate and Angel Lake.
As of December 20th there was no video of the December 17th Board of Directors meeting. I had submitted my rational for rejecting the budget and received the following response:
On behalf of the Sound Transit Board of Directors, thank you for submitting your public comment regarding the proposed 2121 Budget. Your comment will be provided to the Board of Directors for consideration prior to its Board Meeting tomorrow.
Please note that this submission is now a public record and the body of your comment will be posted to the Sound Transit website following the meeting for review by the public.
The board presumably approved the budget though I'm still waiting for the video of the meeting and for the Sound Transit website to post my submission. The Traffic Lab needs to follow-up the article heralding CEO Rogoff's "skipping his $21,000 raise" with a response to his October 14th plan for 2021.
Spending $2.5 billion as the year's installment for spending $96 billion expanding a transit system that will end up with a $20 billion debt and light rail extensions too expensive to operate is surely worthy of comment. Especially with no explanation for paying for after ST3 funding ends in 2041.
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