The Seattle Times Sept 2nd editorial, "Speak up on Sound Transit Plans" response to Sound Transit 30-minute comment period regarding their Transit Development plan 2020-2025 included the following:
"The comment period will provide an opportunity for a broad conversation about transit plans going forward, as Sound Transit decides which projects to delay and possibly shelve"
The editorial concluded:
"Concerned residents should review and comment on what's in the works'. Consider it the start of a vital, regional discussion"
The Times was clearly concerned about Sound Transit's 5-year TDP. Yet they've ignored the upcoming December 17th Sound Transit Board meeting to approve CEO Peter Rogoff's budget for 2021 and his latest proposals for 2017-2041. They continue to ignore Rogoff delusions about light rail ridership, failure to increase bus transit capacity, and long-term finances.
Rogoff's "2019 Financial Plan & Proposed Budget" should have been a "wake-up" call for the entire region. It proposed spending most of $96 billion between 2017 and 2041 on a light rail spine that will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.
The budget included a "Summary of Revenues, Expenditures and Borrowing" showing $2.7 billion in expenditures and $1.2 billion in debt service payments in 2041. The budget also included "Ridership by Mode" predictions with 160 million link light rail riders out of 190 million total. Thus, in 2041, the 2019 budget projected spending $3.9 billion in costs for 190 million riders, $20.53 per rider. The "Fare revenue" for the modes totaled $480 million or $2.53 for each of the 190 million riders.
A competent transit board would have recognized the folly of spending more than $1 billion in 2019 as the year's installment on plans to spend $96 billion extending a light rail system that will cost more than $20 per rider. Especially if they were competent enough to recognize actual ridership in 2041 will be less than half Rogoff's projection, doubling costs per rider and halving fare revenue.
Extending the light rail spine results in a transit system, not only too expensive to operate, it results in a $15 billion debt in 2041, with no means to pay after ST3. All could have been avoided with bus routes using limited access lanes on existing roadways, adding far more capacity than the spine at a fraction of the operating cost
Instead the Sound Transit Board responded to Rogoff's 2019 budget by renewing his contract for three years with a hefty raise. Apparently the Seattle times Traffic Lab, a project that "digs into the region's thorny transportation issues" either didn't "dig into the ridership cost" or chose to ignore the issue and board approval. The result being two more years and hundreds of millions spent extending the spine.
The December 17th "likely" Sound Transit Board approval of Rogoff's 2021 budget response to COVID-19 exacerbates the problem. A competent transit board would have recognized the way to respond to the pandemic downturn would be to divert funds from the light rail spine to the West Seattle-to-Ballard link.
It adds transit capacity into downtown Seattle at a fraction of the cost of spine construction and operation. Transit capacity into Seattle and Bellevue would be increased if spine funds were used for local bus routes providing access to existing stations with added bus routes along I-5, I-90, and I-405.
instead the board will "likely" approve a 2021 budget that delays the West Seattle-to-Ballard link for 4 years and still results in an additional $2 billion in debt in 2041, adding to the cost per rider. The Sound Transit Board needs to explain how they intend to pay for transit system debt service and operation in 2042. Until they do the 2021 budget plan to spend $1.5 billion extending the spine simply adds to the problem.
It's time the Seattle Times, so concerned about Sound Transit's 2020-2025 TDP, expose the 2021 budget and light rail spine debacle.
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