A previous post questioned whether the increase in Washington COVID-19 cases constituted a "Dire Situation". Since then the increasing number of cases has resulted in demands from health officials and the media for more stringent lockdowns that will likely continue well into next year. Thousands of lives will be disrupted if not devastated as a result.
This post questions the "benefits"of Gov Inslee continuing to heed their advice. The Seattle Times "COVID-19 in Washington State" has included data during initial lockdown. The April 1st mortality for 14-day average deaths, 22, from approximately 350 14-day average cases was 6.28%. Clearly the early lockdowns reduced the spread and saved lots of lives.
However, the "benefits" from the current lockdown are far less. Comparable numbers as of 11:59 p.m., Dec 3rd were 22 fatalities from 2482 cases or 0.89%. That's up from those prior to the lockdown, Nov. 17th, 14-day average 15 fatalities from 2215 positive cases per day, 0.68%.
It's clear the current lockdown hasn't further reduced cases or fatalities. The Department of Labor November jobs report prompted the following regarding the "costs" of the lockdown:
"Progress in the labor market has slowed at the worst possible time". "We might be optimistic about the spring, but the winter could bring another round of economic pain".
Bank of America economists agreed, pointing out that the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more ticked up form 3.6 million to 3.9 million-- around 37% more unemployed people, largely workers in the hospitality sector.
Inslee's current lockdown has caused economic problems in our state. The question is what are the benefits from his current lockdown and likely decision to continue it. The Times reported the, "DOH doesn't track recoveries", however the WebMD website recently concluded
Experts also don't have information about the outcome of every infection. However, early estimates predict that the overall COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.
Their estimate limits both the fatalities and other long-term effects.
The problem has been Gov Inslee, health officials, and media pundits advocating for the lockdown have apparently ignored the Times COVID-19 "pie charts" detailing the ages of those who tested positive and those who died as a result. (While they don't provide comparable data for hospitalizations the fatalities surely reflect COVID-19 "cost" on hospitals and staff.) They've remained relatively constant for months.
The Dec. 3rd charts showed those age 0-19 had 15% of 2482 cases but no fatalities, 0.00% mortality, those 20-39 had 40% of cases but only 1% of fatalities, 0.022% mortality; those 40-59 had 28% of cases with 9% of fatalities, 0.28% mortality. The total morality for the 80% of Washington residents under age 60 was 0.11%. The mortality for those over 60, with 17% of case but 90% of fatalities, was 4.69%.
By comparison the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2018 mortality rates for ages 15-24 was 0.074%, ages 25-44, 0.328%, ages 45-64 1.29% and ages 65-84, 6.26% The total NCHS mortality rate for ages 15-64 was 1.69%. Thus for the one person out of the 1000 under the age of 60 who dies from COVID-19 14 others will die from other causes. For those over 60, 95 out of 100 will survive the virus.
More recently the COVID-19 data in the Dec 8th times reported the 14-day average number of cases increased from 1710 per day on November 17th when lockdown began to 2633 cases per day. Again 14-day average fatalities had increased, from 13 to 20 per day and those over 60 had 16% of cases and 90% of the fatalities.
Fatalities for those under 60, the 10% of 20 fatalities, 2.0 per day, from 84% of the 2633 cased, 2212, reduced the mortality rate to 0.09% Comparable rates for those over 60, 16% of cases and 90% of fatalities was 4.74%, more than 50 times the mortality rate of those under 60.
Yet it's those under 60 who are enduring the "cost" of the lockdown. They make up nearly all of the current 3.9 million long-term unemployed. They either work at or patronize the restaurants and bars, bowling lanes, movie theaters and gyms. They're also the ones enduring limitation on schools, social gatherings, travel and sporting events. Limiting their access to religious service and forbidding weddings and funerals adds to their loss.
By comparison many of those over 60 are retired, less socially active, in elder care facilities, or have some additional health problem. The lockdown hasn't changed their lives so it hasn't changed their mortality rate. The only way to reduce their fatalities is by vaccination, justifying the recent CDC priority decision. Eventually all those wanting vaccination will be able to do so. The questions is whether the benefit of extending the lockdown until they're vaccinated justify the cost.
The benefit of in-person teaching surely outweighs the cost of those under 20, with 0.0% mortality and teachers under 60 with 0.09% mortality. The lockdown costs for all those under 60 surely outweighs the benefits of reducing their 10% of fatalities until they're vaccinated, especially since continuing the lockdown will do little to reduce the cases or deaths for those over 60.
It's time Gov Inslee and all those advocating for continuing the lockdown recognized that reality.
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