The Lynnwood Link Debut Benefit

Previous posts have detailed the March 24 East Link Starter Line “benefit”.   It will demonstrate the lack of access along route to South Bellevue T/C will limit ridership to a fraction of what’s needed to justify operating 4-car trains along route.  It will also demonstrate the need to limit train velocity to meet Bellevue Noise Code with 2-car trains and the need for even slower velocities with 4-cars.  The March 24 debut provides time to facilitate 2-car train operation by terminating East Link at CID prior to East Link debut

 

The 8.5-mile Lynnwood Link Extension (LLE) debut in Fall 24 will be even more “beneficial”.  Like the Starter Line, the LLE debut will demonstrate it lacked access along route. Sound Transit, who previously predicted the extension beyond Northgate to Lynnwood T/C would add 35,000 to 57,000 riders, now estimates the LLE will add 25,300-34,200 riders to Line 1 link ridership.  But then Sound Transit had predicted the Northgate extension would add 41,000-49,000 daily riders.  Yet the October 2021 debut demonstrated ridership was a fraction of predictions.

 

What makes the LLE more beneficial is it will demonstrate Sound Transit’s failure to recognize 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. That extending light rail tracks does nothing to increase light rail train capacity it only increases its operating cost. 

 

Whatever riders the LLE does attract reduces capacity for current Line 1 Link riders, especially during peak commute.  For example, if 80% of the 25,300 riders they predict as the minimum, did so during the 6-hour-peak commute, 20,240, more than 3373 would do so each hour.  With 8 minutes between trains, each of the 7.5 LLE trains per hour would have 445 riders, nearly 75% of Line 1 Link train’s 600 rider capacity.  If 80% of the 34,200 rode LLE, 27,360, the 4560 riders per hour the 608 riders per train would end Line 1 access. 

 

Yet even the 4560 light rail riders per hour won’t significantly reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion.  Especially since nearly all those previously rode buses. Thus, the LLE debut will demonstrate Sound Transit’s response to ST3 approval is to implement “voter approved” extensions whose riders will displace Line 1 Link riders and nothing to reduce freeway congestion.

 

Again, another benefit of the fall 24 LLE debut includes a demonstration of the high operating costs of 4-car light rail trains on the 8.5-mile extension.  Sound Transit intends to operate a 50/50 mix of 3 and 4 car trains, every 8-9 minutes during peak commute, and 10-15 minutes off-peak for 20 hours a day. 

 

 Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30 per mile.  Each 17-mile, light-rail-car-round-trip will cost $510. They intend to have a 50/50 split between 3 and 4 car trains for an average of  $1785 per trip.  (By comparison a bus costs ~$13 per mile or $221 for 17-mile round trip.) Assuming an average of 8.5-minutes between trains for 10 peak hours a day will cost $126,000.  The 10 hrs. of off-peak 12.5-minute intervals adds $85,680, for total during or an average of $211,680 daily.  All to replace bus routes to Northgate. 

 

The bottom line is the Fall24 LLE debut demonstrates the folly of Sound Transit using “voter approved’ extensions to replace bus routes.  That 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. That Sound Transit predictions for LLE riders will reduce if not end access for current riders during peak commute.  

 

At this point the best that can be said about the LLE debut is it will expose the even greater folly of the extension to beyond Lynnwood to Everett.  A “benefit” one can hope Sound Transit will acknowledge.

 

 

Bellevue City Council Presentation,

(I went to the Bellevue City Hall to present the below to the City Council during their normal Monday night meeting only to find their next meeting isn’t until September 11th)

  Bellevue City Council Presentation,

My name is Bill Hirt and I’ve lived at 2615 170^th Ave SE since 1967.  More than a decade ago, I made several presentations to the council attempting to persuade them to disallow the 10 permits Sound Transit needed for East Link. 

 

The council chose to ignore me and I’m here tonight because of one of the results of your decision, the East Link Starter Line debut next March.  Sound Transit intends to operate 2-car trains between Redmond Technology Center (RTC) and South Bellevue T/C every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day.  

 

I’m here tonight to prevent Starter Line operation from being an environmental nightmare for those along the route, exceeding the noise level limits in the Bellevue municipal code.  It limits levels to 55 dB in residential areas and 60dB in commercial.   Those limits resulted in ST spending millions to shield homes along route into Bellevue. 

 

However, they’ve made no attempt to shield those along route between RTC and Bellevue. Instead, approving a memorandum that limits their need to mitigate noise levels to whatever their CEO considers “reasonable and feasible”.  I’m here tonight to publicly tell you that the only way for the Starter Line to meet the Bellevue noise code is to dramatically slow the trains.  That the Bellevue City Council should insist ST’s “reasonable and feasible” noise mitigation include limiting speeds to as low as 15-20 mph. 

Sound Transit Board’s Funding Approval?

The August 10^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee meeting agenda included the following: 

 For recommendation to the Board  

Motion No. M2023-67: Authorizing the chief executive officer to increase the agreement contingency for the construction agreement with the Washington State Department of Transportation for the design-build delivery of the I-405/NE 85th Street Interchange and In-line Freeway Station for the I-405 Bus Rapid Transit Project, in the amount of $16,259,000, for a new total authorized agreement amount not to exceed $303,519,000. 

4.   Motion No. M2023-68: Authorizing the chief executive officer to execute a modification to the contract with Jacobs Project Management Co. for on-call general engineering consultant services for the Stride Bus Rapid Transit program, in the amount of $81,000,000, with a 10 percent contingency of $8,000,000, totaling $89,000,000 for a new total authorized amount not to exceed $193,000,000, all within the approved Stride baseline budgets. 

Thus, the System Expansion Committee meeting which previously approved spending $500M on a Bus Base North that wasn’t included in ST3 for servicing 48 Stride buses just approved paying WSDOT $303.5M to “design-build delivery” of a 1-405/NE 85^th Street station that doesn’t have parking for access to buses.  They also approved increasing funding from $104M to $193M for “on-call general engineering services” for Stride Bus Rapid Transit program without any questions as to why cost nearly doubled. 

 

All this increased funding raised questions regarding as to what gave the Board the ability to increase “approved baseline budgets”.  Again, authorizing spending $500M for a Bus Base north not in ST3 and $300 million on a station without parking. Yet no longer funding parking at Kingsgate, 44^th St in Renton, and South Renton that was included in the ST3 map.

 

Even more important is what gave Sound Transit Board the authority to use light rail to replace bus routes into Seattle.  In 2016, voters approved Prop 1  ST3, funding a $54B transit system expansion between 2017 and 2041.  That approval was surely based on the assumption that a transit system expansion would add the capacity needed to reduce roadway congestion into Seattle.  

 

Instead, the Sound Transit Board is now planning to spend $145B between 2017 and 2046 on light rail extensions to replace bus routes.  The Northgate link was used to replace ST511-513, ST522 and KCM41 into Seattle.  The Lynnwood Link extension will replace ST510 and all the Snohomish Community Transit 400 series buses.  The Starter line will replace bus routes from South Bellevue P&R into Bellevue.  When East Link debuts, it will replace all I-90 corridor bus routes into and out of Seattle.  Reducing the number of buses reduces transit capacity and little to reduce congestion into the city

 

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board plan to use ST3 funded “voter approved” light rail extensions to replace bus routes won’t increase transit capacity.  It will increase costs and reduce transit flexibility.  The question remains what gave them the authority to spend so much for so little.

Another ST Starter Line Benefit

 

    An earlier post detailed a “benefit” of Sound Transit’s decision to implement an East Link Starter Line between Redmond T/C and South Bellevue P&R.  That Starter Line operation with 2-car trains would demonstrate the lack of access limited ridership to where Sound Transit will never be able to justify the costs of routing 4-car trains the 14-mile round trip from South Bellevue to Redmond T/C every 10 minutes for 14-16 hours a day.  Sound Transit will “benefit” because the 2024 result will provide the time needed to facilitate 2-car trains by terminating East Link at CID. 

 

    The recent July 27^th Sound Transit Board meeting agenda identified a second “Benefit” of the 2024 Starter Line regarding 2-car trains. Whether East Link operation will be limited to avoid exceeding Bellevue environmental noise limits. The below resolution was in the agenda as Business Item A. While I didn't see it discussed in the video, I'm presuming it reflects their approach.

Resolution No. R2023-15: Adopting a Noise and Vibration policy and superseding Motion. No. M2004-08.

The resolution included the following “Key Features” summary:

 Revising the existing Link Noise Mitigation Policy (Motion No. M2004-08) is appropriate because it is out of date, applies only to Link light rail noise and can be improved to reflect lessons learned from implementing Sound Move and ST2 projects.

While Sound Transit “learned" from implementing Sound Move and ST2 they also “learned” East Link noise levels from preliminary light rail tests in the Bel-Red area.  It was presumably those results that led to resolution including the following revisions:

 The chief executive officer (CEO) has discretion to assess and mitigate impacts to new development that are built after this date. 

And

Eliminates detailed procedures on how to implement the policy.

The resolution background included the following:

The intention behind this policy point is to avoid or minimize revisiting the design of noise and vibration mitigation late in the design or construction phase of projects. To ensure Sound Transit has flexibility in applying this proposed policy, the chief executive officer (CEO) is granted discretion to address new developments that occur after this date, considering project scope, schedule, budget, community concerns, and other factors as appropriate. 

And

Key policy points in the existing policy have been retained, such as the need for mitigation to be reasonable and feasible. Procedures and details deleted from the existing policy will now be documented in agency

However, contrary to Sound Transit claim, Motion No. M2004-08 did not include any mention of “the need for mitigation to be reasonable and feasible”.  What was included, the rationale for the motion the Board voted to replace, was detailed in the History of Project including the following”

Potential noise impacts from operation of the Initial Segment occur primarily along MLK Jr. Way S. and in Tukwila. Within Rainier Valley, there are projected to be 123 noise impacts. All of these include traffic noise impacts from widening MLK Jr. Way S. and 70 of them also include noise from the light rail vehicle. Of the 29 noise impacts in Tukwila, 24 are light rail generated and 5 are from buses at the station park-and-ride. Pursuant to the amended ROD for the Initial Segment, mitigation for these impacts shall consist of designing and operating the light rail vehicles and tracks to minimize noise, noise barrier installation and the implementation of a residential sound insulation program (RSIP). 

And

Many of these issues also apply to noise mitigation for the Link Light Rail project in general. This staff-recommended Link Noise Mitigation Policy on noise mitigation responds to these issues and the staff desire for guidance on noise mitigation implemenntation.

Thus, M2004-8 committed to minimizing train noise, noise barriers, and sound insulation to mitigate noise levels, presumably in response to Bellevue Municipal Code.  Section 9.18.030 of the Noise Code details the maximum permissible environmental noise levels for the environmental designation for noise abatement (EDNA).   The area within which maximum permissible noise levels are established by the Washington State Department of Ecology and this code.

No person shall cause or permit sound to intrude onto the real property of another person which exceeds the maximum permissible sound levels established by this chapter. The point of measurement shall be at the property boundary of the receiving property or anywhere within.

Class A property, residential, was limited to 55 dBA and Class B property, commercial, limited to 60 dBA. Between 10:00 p.m. and 7:00a.m. the maximum permissible levels were reduced by 10 dBA for Class A property.

Sound Transit concern with meeting those noise levels on the route into Bellevue presumably led to the “Shoreline Substantial Development Permit Application”. It included details about the extensive mitigation efforts for ~200 properties some distance from the tracks along the west side of the Bellevue Way into the city. (Though nothing to prevent train noise from ending the Mercer Slough’s “quiet solitude” on the east side of the tracks). 

Yet, Sound Transit has made no attempt to mitigate noise level along Bel-Red to Redmond.  Their approval of Resolution R2023-15 indicates their response to the lessons learned from implementing Sound Move and ST2 projects was to newly empower their own CEO to decide what is “reasonable and feasible”, ignoring the Bellevue Municipal Noise limits.   

The result of R2023-15 is Sound Transit’s efforts to mitigate light rail noise have devolved  from spending millions to insulate property along route in Seattle and to shield those living along the route into Bellevue, to empowering their CEO to decide what is “reasonable and feasible” for those living along light rail on the route between Bellevue and Redmond.

Again, the measurements from preliminary light rail testing along Bel-Red "likely" necessitated replacing M2004-8. (yet still claiming it also it included the "need for mitigation to be reasonable and feasible")   What makes R2023-15 so consequential is it demonstrates Sound Transit apparent belief that whatever the noise levels, all that’s required are “reasonable and feasible” attempts to mitigate the noise.         

Yet the only way to significantly reduce noise is slow down the train or reduce the number of cars. The Starter Line test of 2-car trains will provide environmental noise levels from half the noise source of 4 car trains.  If it exceeds Bellevue code limits, 4-car trains will exacerbate the problem.  The Starter Line train operation will presumably reflect what Sound Transit considers as "reasonable and feasible" to limit the noise.  R2023-15 suggests  they may not even measure Starter Line 2-car-train environmental noise.   

Thus, it will be up to “others” to determine whether Bellevue environmental noise limits are violated and force Sound Transit to limit the speed of East Link 2-car trains.  The problem is the Bellevue City Council has spent more than a decade of acceding to Sound Transit desires. 

This blog began because the council ignored multiple appearances at meetings as well as emails attempting to convince them they should disallow permits Sound Transit needed for East Link construction. That not only would it not reduce I-90 congestion, it precluded 2-way BRT I-90 routes on I-90 Bridge center roadway with 10 times the capacity, ten years sooner at I/10th cost.

The East Link Starter Line noise levels will provide another test of the council.  Will they require Sound Transit to provide environmental noise measurements or have the city fund their own measurements.  If the measured levels for 2-car trains indicate 4-car trains will exceed the limits will they require Sound Transit limit East Link to 2-car trains with speed limited to meet Bellevue Municipal Noise Codes.

The 2024 Starter Line benefit is it provides another reason and time for Sound Transit  to modify CID station to terminate East Link and facilitate operation with 2-car trains. 

 

The ST/WSDOT I-405 Debacle Continues

The video of the July 27^th Sound Transit Board Meeting typifies the actions of a transit organization willing to spend countless millions on projects that do nothing to increase transit ridership or reduce roadway congestion

 

In this case it’s their approach to delivering on the Sound Transit 3 proposal voters approved in 2016 for I-405 Bus Rapid Transit. They intend to spend hundreds of millions on a transit system that won't increase ridership or reduce I-405 congestion.  

 

What voters approved was detailed as Key Attributes in a Sound Transit 3, July 1, 2016, ST3 Map.  The 38-mile, 11 station route between Lynnwood and Burien was costed at $812--$869M (2014$) and was projected to have 15,000—18,000 riders when completed in 2024.  

 

The ST3 Map Details PDF included a Key Attributes list of 20 Project Elements.  it included a 600-stall parking garage at Kingsgate P&R, 200 stalls at NE 44^th St in Renton, and a 700-stall garage at South Renton.  That 34 coaches would be purchased with plans for 10-minute headways between trains during peak operation.

 

The Key Attributes also included the following as one of the 10 “Not Included” projects: 

 

Operations and maintenance facility not included

 

Yet the Sound Transit Board in the July 27^th meeting approved Resolution No. R2023-17 to spend $499,500.000 on a Bus Base North.  The SR522 Stride adds 14 coaches to the 34 planned for I-405 BRT. Thus most of the facility's 120-bus capacity will be used by Snohomish Community Transit to service SCT buses. . 

 

The meeting also included a Program Review detailing that what was promised in 2016 for 2024 will be delayed until Q3/2028 for S1 South and Q2/2029 for S2 North. That the I-405 portion, costed in 2016 as $812--$869M (2014$) had increased to $1,769M in 2023.  

 

What was also not discussed in the July 27^th meeting was the following as listed as “Not Included” in ST3

 

Operations beyond the I-405 and SR 518 BRT corridor

 

The ST3 map and Sound Transit Board version of I-405 BRT didn't include those currently riding ST560 from South Bellevue P&R to SeaTac with stops at Newport, Kennydale, and Renton T/Cs.  Those using ST532 from Alderwood Mall and ST535 from Everett Station, South Everett, and Ash Way P&R to and from Bellevue T/C and route through downtown Bellevue were also not included.

 

The Board also chose to reject what was included in the ST3 map, the parking at Kingsgate, 44^th St in Renton, and South Renton.   Instead funding a $300M NE 85^th station with no parking and millions to improve access to existing parking.   

 

For example, the Board approved Motion No M2023-55 to provide up to $74.8M of up to $215.99M for WSOT to, “Design-Build Delivery of the I-405 BRT Brickyard to SR 527 improvement Project”. Yet, the station only has 443 stalls. Just part of $1,269M the Board authorized with Resolution No R23023-18.  The lack of parking for access to I-405 BRT will limit ridership to a tiny fraction of the 15,000-18,000 claimed in 2016.

 

Any benefit from I-405 BRT travel time reduction from no longer stopping at some stations and improving access at others is dependent on the “Issues & Risks” in the 2016 ST3 Map Detailed PDF. 

 

Relies on WSDOT to maintain adequate speed and reliability of I-405 express toll lane system

 

The problem being the WSDOT I-405 express toll lane system requires 2-person carpools transfer to GP lanes, or like SOV drivers, pay HOT fees to travel on one of two HOV lanes.   The increased GP lane congestion increases the number of those willing to pay the fees. During peak commute, the large numbers of those willing to pay WSDOT's maximum  $10 fee increases HOV travel times for those paying the fees and BRT buses. Especially between Bellevue and Renton where WSDOT 2-lane HOT lanes will leave only 2 GP lanes. The increased travel times dwarf any savings from Sound Transit improving access to stations as well as those paying the fees. 

Both HOV and GP lane travel times could be reduced if WSDOT was "persuading" to limit HOT to one lane with fees raised to limit those willing to pay for faster commutes.  (Typically limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour assures 45mph)  The additional lane reduces congestion for GP lane commuters.

The bottom line is the July 27^th Sound Transit Board meeting was another example of incompetence.  They approved plans to spend $500M on a Bus Base North that wasn’t included in ST 3 and its 120-bus capacity will be used primarily to maintain SCT buses.  They refused to increase access by deleting the parking detailed in ST3 map PDF.

 

Instead. choosing to pay $74.8M as part of WSDOT plan to spend $216M to improve access to a Brickyard Station with 443 stalls and $300M on a NE 85^th station with no stalls at all.Their I-405 BRT route doesn’t include Everett or SeaTac and many stops between with thousands of current riders.

 

Yet any potential I-405 travel time reduction will be dwarfed by the increased congestion if WSDOT implements HOT on 2 HOV lanes.  If so, the ST/WSDOT I-405 debacle continues.

 

ST Ballard Link Bus/Train Transfer Incompetence

The previous post detailed the absurdity of Sound Transit plans next year to use Starter Line to replace ST550 routes from Bellevue to South Bellevue P&R and Lynnwood extension to replace ST510 and STC 400 riders into Seattle.  This post details how Sound Transit plans to require King County Metro riders transfer to Ballard Link for their commute into and out of Seattle carry that incompetence to a whole new level. 

The July 13^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee meeting agenda included the following as Reports to the Committee:

a.                  Ballard Link Extension-Denny Station Status Report 

T  

The Public Comment period earlier in the agenda was largely used to express opposition to Sound Transit current plans for Denny Station that required closing Westlake to traffic for four years. Sound Transit’s presentation concluded with a decision to shift Denny Station west, leaving Westlake Ave substantially open and a $440M cost savings due to consolidation of Denny and Harrison Stations.

That additional studies were needed to assess the Performance, (ridership, transit integration and passenger experience) for what was called the South Lake Union Station (SLUS).  The additional ridership assessment included Sound Transit’s decision to use bus-rail transfers to provide 32% of total boardings at station. That 80% of all bus-rail transfers were from E-Line, Route 5, Route 62, and Route 8/11.  Presumably meaning they intended to terminate those four routes as well as those that made up the other 20% at SLUS. 

Thus, all those riding on E-Line from Aurora Village, Route 5 from Shoreline Community College, or Route 62 from Sand Point and Route 8/11 from Seattle Center through Madison Park, or all those on the remaining 20% would all be forced to transfer to Ballard Link for the commute into and out of downtown Seattle.  

Presumably all those on the routes beyond SLUS would lose access to bus routes into Seattle.  Those forced to transfer would be limited to new Westlake Station for egress and access rather than the choice of multiple stops in Seattle.  A clear recipe for fewer transit riders into and out of Seattle.

The bottom line is the video of the July 13^th System Expansion Committee meeting exemplifies a Sound Transit and Board that fails to recognize forcing commuters to transfer to and from light rail is a disincentive for public transit.  They’ve ignored Northgate Link results that demonstrated that reality.  The East Link debut which would have confirmed those results this year in June has been delayed for two years.  Thus, it will take until next year’s Starter Link and Lynnwood Link debut to demonstrate that result. 

 

Another demonstration of  Sound Transit and Board incompetence

Starter Line and Lynnwood Link "Benefits"

The previous post detailed why Sound Transit and the Board needed to do a cost/benefit analysis of the Everett Link extension before proceeding with plans to implement the extension in 2037.  This post details why Sound Transit plan to implement an East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood Link extension in 2024 will demonstrate problems with Sound Transit’s approach to providing the benefits. 

 

The cost part of the problem is Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs as ~$30 per mile, $60 per mile for each car for the round trip.  The 7-mile Starter Line will cost $420 per car for the trip.  

 

The June 8^th Sound Transit Expansion Committee detailed plans for Starter Line operation of 2-car trains with 10-minute headways, for 14, and potential 16 hours, 84-96 round trips.  Thus, in 2024, the Starter Line debut will add $70,560, and potentially $80,640 per day to operating costs.

 

The June 8^th meeting also detailed Sound Transit’s plan for the 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension in 2024.  That a mix of 3 or 4 car trains, would be routed every 8 minutes for 20 hours. The 150 round trips will add  $229,500 to $306,000 to daily Line 1 Link operating costs. 

 

Sound Transit’s problem is the lack of benefits.   For example, Starter Line access, except for parking at Redmond T/C and Bel-Red/130^th station, is limited to those within walking distance of 5 stations along route. A fraction of the number of stops for access along Rabid Route B into Bellevue and on ST550 to South Bellevue P&R. 

 

Sound Transit compounds that problem by forcing Starter Line riders to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle.  Thus, any benefit from adding Starter Line from Redmond T/C to Bellevue will be limited at best.  The lost access in Bellevue and the need to transfer to and from bus routes are a strong disincentive to even ride transit.

 

Sound Transit's claim for Lynnwood Link “benefit", 37,000 to 57,000 riders, is limited by the fact it only increases access by adding 500 new parking stalls at the Lynnwood T/C and North and South Shoreline Stations. (It does include spending $240B for a NE130th St Infill Station by 2026 but doesn’t include any parking for access.)  Instead choosing to require commuters with access to bus routes to transfer to light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle. (It's not clear how STC riders will pay fares)

 

It's the same approach Sound Transit used for the Northgate extension.  They terminated ST512 and 513 at Northgate, ST522 at Roosevelt, and replaced KCM41 into the city.  However, they continued to route ST510 into Seattle during the peak commute with an additional stop at Montlake Terrace. 

 

Still, Sound Transit, relying on those with “non-motorized access (i.e. Parking) predicted the extensions three stations would add between 41,000-49,000 riders.  However, Sound Transit refuses to release quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports with the results of the October 2021 Northgate debut.  

 

It would have “likely” included data showing riders added by each of the Link’s three stations was a fraction of projections.  How many riders chose ST512, ST513, and ST522 routes that require they transfer compared to ST510 that continued into and out of Seattle. 

 

Ridership on both the Starter Line and Lynnwood extension will depend on the disincentive to transfer.   Starter Line riders will be forced to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle. The Lynnwood extension operation will require all ST510 and Snohomish Community Transit SCT400 riders transfer to the link for the commute into and out of Seattle.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has limited light rail “benefits” by failing to add parking for access.  The Northgate Link demonstrated the  “benefits” of ridership, even for those with access, are diminished by the need to transfer between bus routes and trains.  Next year the Starter Line and Lynnwood extensions will "likely" confirm that result, negating much of the purported "benefits'.