Starter Line and Lynnwood Link "Benefits"

The previous post detailed why Sound Transit and the Board needed to do a cost/benefit analysis of the Everett Link extension before proceeding with plans to implement the extension in 2037.  This post details why Sound Transit plan to implement an East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood Link extension in 2024 will demonstrate problems with Sound Transit’s approach to providing the benefits. 

 

The cost part of the problem is Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs as ~$30 per mile, $60 per mile for each car for the round trip.  The 7-mile Starter Line will cost $420 per car for the trip.  

 

The June 8^th Sound Transit Expansion Committee detailed plans for Starter Line operation of 2-car trains with 10-minute headways, for 14, and potential 16 hours, 84-96 round trips.  Thus, in 2024, the Starter Line debut will add $70,560, and potentially $80,640 per day to operating costs.

 

The June 8^th meeting also detailed Sound Transit’s plan for the 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension in 2024.  That a mix of 3 or 4 car trains, would be routed every 8 minutes for 20 hours. The 150 round trips will add  $229,500 to $306,000 to daily Line 1 Link operating costs. 

 

Sound Transit’s problem is the lack of benefits.   For example, Starter Line access, except for parking at Redmond T/C and Bel-Red/130^th station, is limited to those within walking distance of 5 stations along route. A fraction of the number of stops for access along Rabid Route B into Bellevue and on ST550 to South Bellevue P&R. 

 

Sound Transit compounds that problem by forcing Starter Line riders to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle.  Thus, any benefit from adding Starter Line from Redmond T/C to Bellevue will be limited at best.  The lost access in Bellevue and the need to transfer to and from bus routes are a strong disincentive to even ride transit.

 

Sound Transit's claim for Lynnwood Link “benefit", 37,000 to 57,000 riders, is limited by the fact it only increases access by adding 500 new parking stalls at the Lynnwood T/C and North and South Shoreline Stations. (It does include spending $240B for a NE130th St Infill Station by 2026 but doesn’t include any parking for access.)  Instead choosing to require commuters with access to bus routes to transfer to light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle. (It's not clear how STC riders will pay fares)

 

It's the same approach Sound Transit used for the Northgate extension.  They terminated ST512 and 513 at Northgate, ST522 at Roosevelt, and replaced KCM41 into the city.  However, they continued to route ST510 into Seattle during the peak commute with an additional stop at Montlake Terrace. 

 

Still, Sound Transit, relying on those with “non-motorized access (i.e. Parking) predicted the extensions three stations would add between 41,000-49,000 riders.  However, Sound Transit refuses to release quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports with the results of the October 2021 Northgate debut.  

 

It would have “likely” included data showing riders added by each of the Link’s three stations was a fraction of projections.  How many riders chose ST512, ST513, and ST522 routes that require they transfer compared to ST510 that continued into and out of Seattle. 

 

Ridership on both the Starter Line and Lynnwood extension will depend on the disincentive to transfer.   Starter Line riders will be forced to transfer to ST550 at South Bellevue P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle. The Lynnwood extension operation will require all ST510 and Snohomish Community Transit SCT400 riders transfer to the link for the commute into and out of Seattle.

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has limited light rail “benefits” by failing to add parking for access.  The Northgate Link demonstrated the  “benefits” of ridership, even for those with access, are diminished by the need to transfer between bus routes and trains.  Next year the Starter Line and Lynnwood extensions will "likely" confirm that result, negating much of the purported "benefits'.