The Lynnwood Link Debut Benefit

Previous posts have detailed the March 24 East Link Starter Line “benefit”.   It will demonstrate the lack of access along route to South Bellevue T/C will limit ridership to a fraction of what’s needed to justify operating 4-car trains along route.  It will also demonstrate the need to limit train velocity to meet Bellevue Noise Code with 2-car trains and the need for even slower velocities with 4-cars.  The March 24 debut provides time to facilitate 2-car train operation by terminating East Link at CID prior to East Link debut

 

The 8.5-mile Lynnwood Link Extension (LLE) debut in Fall 24 will be even more “beneficial”.  Like the Starter Line, the LLE debut will demonstrate it lacked access along route. Sound Transit, who previously predicted the extension beyond Northgate to Lynnwood T/C would add 35,000 to 57,000 riders, now estimates the LLE will add 25,300-34,200 riders to Line 1 link ridership.  But then Sound Transit had predicted the Northgate extension would add 41,000-49,000 daily riders.  Yet the October 2021 debut demonstrated ridership was a fraction of predictions.

 

What makes the LLE more beneficial is it will demonstrate Sound Transit’s failure to recognize 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. That extending light rail tracks does nothing to increase light rail train capacity it only increases its operating cost. 

 

Whatever riders the LLE does attract reduces capacity for current Line 1 Link riders, especially during peak commute.  For example, if 80% of the 25,300 riders they predict as the minimum, did so during the 6-hour-peak commute, 20,240, more than 3373 would do so each hour.  With 8 minutes between trains, each of the 7.5 LLE trains per hour would have 445 riders, nearly 75% of Line 1 Link train’s 600 rider capacity.  If 80% of the 34,200 rode LLE, 27,360, the 4560 riders per hour the 608 riders per train would end Line 1 access. 

 

Yet even the 4560 light rail riders per hour won’t significantly reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion.  Especially since nearly all those previously rode buses. Thus, the LLE debut will demonstrate Sound Transit’s response to ST3 approval is to implement “voter approved” extensions whose riders will displace Line 1 Link riders and nothing to reduce freeway congestion.

 

Again, another benefit of the fall 24 LLE debut includes a demonstration of the high operating costs of 4-car light rail trains on the 8.5-mile extension.  Sound Transit intends to operate a 50/50 mix of 3 and 4 car trains, every 8-9 minutes during peak commute, and 10-15 minutes off-peak for 20 hours a day. 

 

 Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30 per mile.  Each 17-mile, light-rail-car-round-trip will cost $510. They intend to have a 50/50 split between 3 and 4 car trains for an average of  $1785 per trip.  (By comparison a bus costs ~$13 per mile or $221 for 17-mile round trip.) Assuming an average of 8.5-minutes between trains for 10 peak hours a day will cost $126,000.  The 10 hrs. of off-peak 12.5-minute intervals adds $85,680, for total during or an average of $211,680 daily.  All to replace bus routes to Northgate. 

 

The bottom line is the Fall24 LLE debut demonstrates the folly of Sound Transit using “voter approved’ extensions to replace bus routes.  That 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off-peak. That Sound Transit predictions for LLE riders will reduce if not end access for current riders during peak commute.  

 

At this point the best that can be said about the LLE debut is it will expose the even greater folly of the extension to beyond Lynnwood to Everett.  A “benefit” one can hope Sound Transit will acknowledge.