Avoiding the East Link Debacle

 

Previous posts have detailed the June 9^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee meeting had included a chart showing the Lynnwood Link debut “Target Date” had been delayed for at least two years.  That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, who were asked to “dig into” why, had instead chosen to ignore it.  That, as a result, Sound Transit could delay another demonstration of the Northgate Link problems; the inability of 4-car light rail trains to reduce multi-lane freeway congestion during peak congestion and costing too much during off peak.  

Sound Transit still refuses to release their quarterly Service Delivered Performance Report 2021-Q4 and Quarterly Financial Performance Report 2022-Q1.  They would have provided how many of Sound Transit’s projected 41,000 to 49,000 riders actually used the 3 stations, how much did each boarding cost, and the farebox recovery of operating costs with the longer routes.

The best indication is the lack of parking with access to light rail stations or access to parking near bus routes to stations limited Link ridership to only 8000.  The Lynnwood Link exacerbates both problems by not adding capacity or parking for access during peak commute operation, and doubles operating costs, slashing fare box recovery,.  Again, delaying Lynnwood Link delays exposing Prop 1 light rail spine problems to Everett

However, the Lynnwood Link delay does nothing to delay the far bigger problems with the East Link debut in 2023. The July 7^th release of the May Agency Progress Report included a debut delayed from a June 30,2023 to Oct 20, 2023.  Whatever the date, the East Link debut will finally demonstrate that Sound Transit should have never been allowed to confiscate I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail. That Sound Transit’s 2008 East Link DEIS claims for benefits were sheer fantasy.  

The Link’s confiscation of bridge center roadway precluded 2-way BRT routes with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost.  Sound Transit violated Revised Code of Washington RCW 81.104.100 (2 )by failing to consider that far less expensive BRT option.

 

Sound Transit also essentially ignored Section 4(f) of the Department of Transportation's environmental policy. It “Precluded approval of a transportation project that adversely affects waterfowl and wildlife refuges unless the impact is de minimis”.  Sound Transit spent millions shielding homes across Bellevue Way but nothing to protect the quiet solitude of the Mercer Slough Park. The route into Bellevue needlessly destroyed the city’s persona as “the city in the park”.

The East Link debut will confirm the debacle.  Rather than add transit capacity Sound Transit chose to use the $3.6B spent on East Link to replace all the I-90 Bridge bus routes.  They refuse to acknowledge the only way to reduce I-90 corridor congestion is to attract more commuters to public transit.  That attracting more riders requires providing commuters with local bus routes to transit stations with BRT routes into Seattle and Bellevue.

Instead, Sound Transit’s “bus intercept” agreement with Mercer Island terminates I-90 corridor bus routes on the island.  The agreement limits the number of corridor buses and requires those commuters to endure the hassle of being forced to transfer to light rail for the commute into Seattle.  The return trip will require they wait on the island for a bus back to their P&R.  Both a sure recipe for far fewer transit commuters when East Link debuts.  Avoiding that debacle requires most I-90 corridor buses bypass Mercer Island and route instead into Seattle.

Another East Link debut problem is Sound Transit plans to make the Link part of Line 2 and share tracks with Line 1 from Angel Lake through DSTT to Northgate and eventually to Mariner P&R near Everett.  Line 1 currently operates with 10-minute headways for 16 hours and 20-minute headways for 4 hours; 108 round trips daily.  Prior to East Link the 108, 8.4-mile round trips from UW to Northgate and back will add 3628.8 vehicle revenue miles for the 4-car trains. Sound Transit’s 2021 budget $30.17 cost per vehicle mile, so the link will add $109,481 daily.

  

When East Link debuts, maintaining the Line 1 schedule from Angel Lake and for Line 2 will double the number of routes through DSTT to Northgate, doubling the daily operating cost to $218,962.  When the Lynnwood Link does debut routing Line 2 the additional 8.5-mile extension will increase costs per trip from UW to Lynnwood and back to $3077 per trip, or $664,705 per day for the 216 trips. (It "may be" why Sound Transit has made the decision to delay if for two years)

  

The bottom line is Sound Transit's "bus intercept" plan will do nothing to increase the transit capacity needed to reduce I-90 corridor congestion.  That extending East Link though DSTT to Northgate and beyond will increase transit capacity and costs but nothing to increase access for riders.  Thus, costs for the extensions will dwarf any rational estimate for farebox revenue.  

The way to avoid the costs is to terminate Line 2 at the International District/Chinatown station.  Doing so allows Sound Transit to schedule Line 2 to meet transit capacity needs on the route through Bellevue to Redmond.  I-90 corridor BRT routes into Seattle could grow to meet the public transit demand needed to reduce congestion. If not, the East Link debut will force even the Seattle Times to concede the "likely"results of their decade long abetting Sound Transit's "voter approved" extensions.

Ballard Deserves Better

The July 13 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “City Council goes public with light-rail line plans” indicates well-founded disagreements with Sound Transit plans with the “$13 billion West Seattle-to-Ballard” line.  Ballard residents deserve better than having construction that “will likely last until nearly 2040.” 

The “Program Schedule of Baseline Projects” for Light Rail Program in Sound Transit’s latest Agency Progress Report, the June 9^th release for May show light rail construction from Lynnwood to Federal Way and beyond Bellevue to Redmond are essentially complete by the end of 2024.  Ballard residents should not have to wait another 16 years for their link. 

 It’s also “unlikely” many Ballard residents will need to use the second tunnel under downtown Seattle to reach SeaTac.  Sound Transit could expedite a tunnel from 15^th and Market to near Seattle Pacific University, under North Queen Ann to near Seattle Center Parking Garage, to South Lake Union and terminate at Westlake light rail station.  It could include shuttle bus routes or a short tunnel for trains from Freemont area to Seattle Pacific. 

The total distance is something like the 4.4-mile Northgate Link tunnel whose estimated final cost is $1.9B. There is no need for a 2^nd tunnel as those wishing to go beyond Westlake can transfer to Central Link.  There would be no disruptions for Chinatown and Ballard residents could have light rail access 10 years sooner, at a fraction of the $13 billion.

 

Traffic Lab Ignores 2-year Lynnwood Delay

The previous post opined the Seattle Times Traffic Lab should “dig into” Sound Transit Machinations regarding Lynnwood Link.  Instead, the July 14^th edition article “Sound Transit bets on isolated North Seattle station” epitomizes a decade of abiding if not abetting Sound Transit incompetence.  The paper continues to ignore the fact the $54 billion approved in 2016 for “voter approved” extensions has grown to $142 billion.  

In this case abiding Sound Transit's decision to “budget $240 million to accelerate a North Seattle station surrounded  by minimal housing and jobs".  It’s similar to the Sound Transit Board’s January 27^th decision to authorize spending “an amount not to exceed $287,260,000" for a NE 85^th St Stride Bus Rapid Transit station along I-405 into Bellevue, also without parking for access.

 

 

 

The July 14^th article justifies the 130^th station on the basis of a Sound Transit Board member’s claim “is a matter of social equity for the north side’s influx of people of color and lower-income families.”  It’s unclear how many will choose to live withing walking distance. Sound Transit is planning to spend $15 million improving 85^th St in Kirkland to facilitate bus routes for access from downtown Kirkland.

The article claims the “station estimates rose from $80 million to $144 million in 2020 and to $223 million this spring. The authors were apparently unaware it wasn’t until a June 9^th System Expansion Committee meeting the cost increase was approved with the following: 

 Resolution No. R2022-17: Adopting the NE 130^th Street Infill Station project baseline schedule and budget by (a) increasing authorized project allocation by $203,738,000 from $36,417,000 to $240,155,000, (b) increasing the annual project budget by $9,883,027 from $6,584,030 to $16,417,057, and (c) establish an open for service date of Q2 2026.

Also, Sound Transit’s June 7^th release of the April Agency Progress Report, and several earlier reports, had included an Estimated Final Cost (EFC) of $36.4 million.  One would think an article about the station would include information  about what prompted the $204 million increase and how the $10 million annual increase will fund the $204 million cost.   

Even more “interesting” is the fact the Traffic Lab article continues to describe the Lynnwood Link as “Open for Service: 2024”.  They chose to ignore rather than “dig into” why the June 9^th Sound Transit announcement delaying Lynnwood Link debut for at least 2 years.

One reason could be Sound Transit has recognized that the Traffic Lab ridership claims in the article are overly “optimistic”.  They're quoted as being based on a “Lynnwood Link Final Environment Statement, April 2015”.  They reflect the same “optimism” the Traffic Lab had when they heralded the Northgate Link debut as “Transit Transformed" with 42,000 to 49,000 riders added by the Link’s three stations.

Yet they abide Sound Transit not releasing the quarterly “Service Provided Performance Report 2021-Q4 that would have provided the data.  The best estimate is the change in total ridership with the debut was 8000 daily, a fraction of Sound Transit's 41,000 to 49,000 prediction.  The reason, the lack of access with parking near stations or near bus routes to stations. 

Since the Lynnwood Link adds little access, its debut will do little to add riders.  What riders it adds will reduce access for University Link riders and the longer route operating costs will further reduce farebox revenue recovery.   Portending even more debacles with all the light rail spine extensions.  The later that happens the better for Sound Transit.

Again, the Traffic Lab needs to “dig-into” the delay, not ignore it.

 

 

 

Traffic Lab Should “Dig Into” Sound Transit Machinations

The Seattle Times promotes their Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues, spotlights promising approaches to easing gridlock, and helps readers find the best ways to get around.”    Yet they continue their failure to “dig into” a decade of Sound Transit Board and CEO public transit system incompetence. 

They’ve allowed Sound Transit to spend billions on light rail extensions for 4-car light rail trains that don’t have the capacity to reduce multi-lane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate during off-peak commute.  They’ve allowed Sound Transit to use delusional ridership claims for “voter approved” extensions yet ignored the extensions' need for “motorized access”.

The paper’s Traffic Lab heralded the Northgate Link debut as “Transit Transformed” with the three Link stations adding 42,000 to 49,000 riders.  Yet they’ve “neglected” to “dig into” how many riders the three stations actually added.  Instead, abetting Sound Transit’s refusal to release the 2021 Q4 Service Delivery Performance report. It would have provided the riders added by each of the three stations and the cost per boarding for the Link.   (Sound Transit stopped publishing the reports with the July 12^th, 2021, Q1 edition) 

They’ve also abetted Sound Transit’s delay in publishing a Quarterly Financial Performance Report for Q1 2022.  The report would have shown the Year-to-Date (YTD) Link Boardings, Fare Revenue, Budget Performance, and Cost Per Boarding for Q1 2021 and predicted and actual for Q1 2022. The year-to-year comparison would have included the effect of the Northgate Link operation. Again, it's something the Traffic Lab should “dig into” but hasn’t.

A September 9^th, 2018, Traffic Lab article, “New bus station in Kirkland will be a $300 million gamble” detailed concern it funded an NE 85^th St Stride Bus Rapid Transit station along I-405 that lacked parking for access.  Yet, they’ve ignored a June 9^th, 2022, Sound Transit System Expansion Committee plan to spend “an amount not to exceed $287,260,000" on a NE 130^th St Infill Station that also lacks parking.  That funding is an increase from the $34.6 million in Sound Transit’s June 7^th April Agency Progress Report.  The Traffic Lab should “dig into” why the $204 million increased cost, especially for a station without parking for access.  

An April 28th Traffic Lab article announced, “Sound Transit’s light rail project to the Eastside is running late”.  The April Agency Progress Report details the Link’s Revenue Service Window had been extended from July to October 2024.  Yet they’ve ignored a June 9^th Transit System Expansion Committee meeting disclosure that the Lynnwood service date had been delayed for at least two years.  That a chart in the meeting showing the schedule for the 130^th station included a “star” indicating the July 2024 “target date” for Lynnwood Service Date was “subject to change” that extended beyond Q2 2026.  

Yet the June 7^th April Agency Progress Report’s Lynnwood Project Schedule showed LLE Master Schedule “Finish” 30-Feb-24, Revenue Service Preparation Finish, 17-Jul-24 and Revenue Service-FFGA 17-July 24.   The two-year difference surely merits Traffic Lab “digging”.

The bottom line is Sound Transit refuses to release quarterly Service Delivery Performance and Financial Performance Reports showing the results of the Northgate Link debut.  The best information available indicates the ridership was only ~8000, a fraction of the Link website predictions of 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022.  The “likely” reason the lack of parking for access.  The resulting loss in fare box revenue along with the increased costs for longer routes raised cost per boarding and reduced farebox recovery well below targets.  

Even more important, like all the light rail spine extensions, the Northgate Link did nothing to increase light rail capacity into Seattle.  That riders added by the Link reduced access for University Link riders.  Using the Link to replace buses reduced total transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to reduce GP lane congestion. 

The Lynnwood Link exacerbates all the Northgate Link problems. It adds little parking for access, doubles the operating costs, and any riders added further reduce University Link access, a precursor to similar problems with all the light rail spine extensions.  The Seattle Times Traffic Lab needs to “dig into” whether the two-year delay is an attempt to delay exposing the debacle.  

 

Lynnwood Link’s 2-Year Service Delay?

A previous blog post detailed Sound Transit’s June 9^th System Expansion Committee approval of the NE 130^th St Infill Station on I-5 and a NE 85^th St  Bus Rapid Transit station along I-405, continued Sound Transit’s decision to ignore the light rail spine’s need for “motorized access.  That the nearest parking to 130th station was more than a mile away.  

This post details how the two meetings not only approved spending $204 million more on the station than what Sound Transit's June 7th April Agency Progress Report, they also included charts showing the Lynnwood Link debut had been delayed by at least two years from that shown in the Progress Report.  Both meeting agendas included the following Business Item:

Resolution No. R2022-17: Adopting the NE 130th Street Infill   Station project baseline schedule and budget by (a) increasing the authorized project allocation by $203,738,000 from $36,417,000 to $240,155,000, (b) increasing the annual project budget by $9,833,027 from $6,584,030 to $16,417,057, and (c) establishing an open for service date of Q2 2026. 

Yet the April Agency Progress Report’s Link Light Rail Program Overview for NE 130^th Street Infill Station included the Estimated Final Cost (EFC) of $36.4 Million. What prompted the $204 million increase?  It's also not clear how an annual $10 million increase will fund the added $204 million cost.

Even more “questionable” was the need for the station’s Q2 2026 Service Date.  Both meeting included Resolution 2022-17 with the following Key Features Summary: 

This action advances timely construction of station superstructure and platform work to be completed prior to activation of the Lynnwood Link Extension overhead catenary system. Completing this work earlier reduces construction risks, single tracking, and shutdowns of revenue operations for Lynnwood Link that may otherwise be necessary when working adjacent to a live system. 

One would have thought a 2-year delay in Lynnwood Link service was worthy of some "public notification".   Instead, the only mention of the delay in the June 9th meeting was a “star” in a chart for 130^th St, "Baseline Project Schedule" with the following:

 Lynnwood Link Revenue Service                                                                                     (original plan, subject to change)

Yet Sound Transit’s April Agency Progress Report showed the Lynnwood Link revenue service date as July 2024. That 64.3% of the major construction contracts had been completed.  The report's Link Project Schedule showed all the task completion dates were consistent with the July 2024 service dateRail Program.   

Apparently between a June 7^th Agency Progress Report and a June 9^th System Expansion Committee meeting  Sound Transit decided to delay the Lynnwood Link debut for at least 2 years.  The obvious question is "Why?  Whatever the reason  the result will be a two-year delay in Lynnwood Link demonstrating Prop 1 extensions ability to reduce congestion. 

It may be Sound Transit finally recognized the results of the October 2^nd Northgate Link debut. That 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multi-lane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate during off-peak commutes. Sound Transit has yet to release a quarterly Service Provided Report for Q4-2021. It would’ve provided the riders added by each of the 3 Northgate Link stations as well as the cost for adding those riders   

The best indication of Northgate Link ridership was the 8000 daily increase in total link riders between September 2021 and January 2021, a fraction of Sound Transit's predicted 41,000 to 49,000.   The “likely” reason the lack of added “motorized access” along the I-5 to the three Northgate Link stations.  

The Lynnwood Link plans call for adding 500 stalls at the 148th and 185th Shoreline station by Q3 2023.  Presumably those commuters will have access to ST 511-513 routes to Northgate station and Link.  When Lynnwood Link does debut  it will only change where these riders access light rail, doing little to increase transit ridership.  

The bottom line is Lynnwood Link does nothing to increase capacity, little to increase access for new riders, reduces access for current riders, and doubles the operating cost.  Delaying that demonstration allows them to continue spending additional billions for another two years on fatally flawed extensions  

They should be forced to justify the delay.  Yet the Sound Transit Board asked no questions and unanimously approved the 130th St station budget and 2 year Lynnwood Link delay.  Typical of Seattle Times, their Traffic Lab, who previously hailed the Northgate Link debut as "Transit Transformed" has ignored both the increased spending on a station without motorized access and the Lynnwood Link delay.  

My candidacy for U.S Senate is an attempt to expose both.

The WSDOT Needs New Secretary

The Sound Transit Board has included the Washington State Secretary of Transportation to provide guidance to a board of elected officials chosen to represent their constituents transit concerns but with “limited” experience regarding public transit issues.   Yet, Roger Millar, the current WSDOT secretary, and his processor, Lynn Peterson, have abetted a Board whose actions reflect a failure to understand what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit requires providing commuters with access to the transit capacity to and from their desired destinations.

 Yet during their tenures as WSDOT Secretary, Sound Transit Board failed to add parking for access to transit or to recognize the limited capacity of 4-car light rail trains.  They ignored the light rail spine’s need for “motorized access” and made delusional ridership claims to garner ST3 “voter approved” extensions in 2016.  The result’s been billions spent on light rail extensions that when completed won’t have the access or capacity needed to reduce congestion on multilane freeways during peak congestion, will reduce access for current riders, and will cost too much to operate during off-peak commute.  

 

Their WSDOT leadership for I-405 has been even more “problematic”.  They spent to $484 million implementing HOT between Lynnwood and Bellevue.  The "standard" premise for HOT being fees can be set to reduce HOV traffic from those in carpools to the 2000 vehicles per hour (VPH)) needed to assure 45 mph.   Between Bothell and Bellevue, the WSDOT attempted to get more revenue by implementing HOT on 2 HOV lanes but limited fees to $10.00.    

 

Using the second lane for HOT increased congestion on remaining GP lanes to where during peak commute more than 2000 drivers an hour were willing to pay the the fees on the two HOV lanes.  The result was  many of those paying the fees didn’t achieve the 45 mph travel times and the loss of the GP lane further increased congestion on remaining lanes

 

A Dec 25, 2017, Seattle Times article indicated WSDOT had similar plans for reducing I-405 travel times between Renton and Bellevue: 

  

In 2019, work crews on Interstate 405 will start building a new lane in each direction between Renton and Bellevue, as part of a series of changes that aim to improve traffic flow on what officials call Washington’s worst corridor for congestion.  

Then, five years later, the Washington Department of Transportation (WSDOT) will open the new lanes, and an existing one each way, to traffic as express toll lanes, extending the interstate’s current tolling system between Lynnwood and Bellevue that opened in 2015. 

WSDOT will spend $1.22 billion on the upcoming project, funded by the statewide gas-tax increase approved by the Legislature in 2015. 

 

Thus, as of Dec 2017, the WSDOT had the funds for adding a 4^th I-405 lane between Bellevue and Renton.  Again, the WSDOT persisted with plans for 2 HOT lanes with an April 12, 2019, WSDOT and FHWA notice announcing a “Finding of No Significant Impact” (FONSI) for the I-405, Tukwila to I-90 Vicinity Express Toll Lanes Project.  The WSDOT apparently not recognizing implementing HOT on 2 of 4 lanes would exacerbate Bothell-to-Bellevue problem. 

 

The bottom line is WSDOT Secretary Millar has abetted years of Sound Transit Board incompetence, 2 HOT lanes on I-405 that increase I-405 revenue, but don’t reduce travel times. He's failed to proceed with plans to “improve traffic flow on what officials call Washington’s worst corridor for congestion."  

Both Sound Transit and WSDOT need new leaders. The WSDOT's decision to no longer provide a 2 page listing of  current travel times for all the major routes in the area or an update on the Oct-Dec 2016 Park and Ride Inventory  just add to the reason.   

 

 

ST Doesn’t Recognize the Need for " Motorized Access"

The video of the June 9^th Sound Transit System Expansion Committee planning to implement the NE 130^th Street Infill Station exemplifies Sound Transit failure to understand the need for “motorized access”.  That the ST3 Map of “Voter Approved” extensions included the proviso 60-85% of riders would need “motorized access” from either parking near stations or access to bus routes to stations.  

 

However, a November 2016 Seattle Times article reported the 51 existing park and ride facilities next to express bus or trains stations in Snohomish, King, and Pierce County were already 95% full with 19,448 cars.   Sound Transit continues to ignore the Northgate Link debut showing the lack of “motorized access” limited ridership to a fraction of their website predictions.  (Sound Transit has stopped releasing the quarterly Service Delivery Reports, the Q4-2021 that would have detailed the ridership added at each of the 3 Link stations) 

 

Instead, a May 5^th video showed Sound Transit’s System Policy was to “maximize efficient use of available transit parking resources”.  The June 9^th video depicted the latest result, approving the NE 130^th Street Infill Station.  The Project Timeline detailed that spending $240 million on the station toward a Q2 2026 delivery was consistent with the “Affordable Schedule”.  Yet a map of the area shows the nearest parking was at Northgate, more than a mile away.  Still the proposal was unanimously approved without any of the board members asking how many commuters were expected to use the station for access or egress to and from light rail.

 

An April 28^th Board of Directors meeting approved giving WSDOT $141 million to implement “in-line” stations near Canyon Park and Brickyard P&R’s on I-405 into Bellevue. Again, no parking was added. An earlier example was a video of a January 27^th Sound Transit Board of Directors. It detailed plans for NE 85^th St Stride Bus Rapid Transit station along I-405 into Bellevue. It included a Funding Amount chart authorizing WSDOT “an amount not to exceed $287,260,000” for construction of the station, but nothing for parking.  

 

Sound Transit would also fund improvements to NE 85^th St to facilitate access but no bus routes from downtown Kirkland. That the board needed action today to authorize contract to avoid the “likely push delivery into 2027".  In both meetings the board asked no questions and unanimously approved project.

 

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board doesn’t seem to recognize commuters need “motorized access” to both light rail and bus stations.  At this point, the costs of ending Sound Transits decade-long failure by adding parking far exceed any benefits.  (e.g. the $167,000 cost for each of the 500 stalls in Puyallup garage.)  

Thus, the only way to provide “motorized access” is local bus routes through areas where commuters live to existing light rail and bus stations.  Sound Transit should divert the nearly $700M for new stations toward funding those bus routes to existing stations. That the stations have access to BRT into Seattle to avoid having riders limiting access for current commuters on the route.