Traffic Lab Ignores 2-year Lynnwood Delay

The previous post opined the Seattle Times Traffic Lab should “dig into” Sound Transit Machinations regarding Lynnwood Link.  Instead, the July 14^th edition article “Sound Transit bets on isolated North Seattle station” epitomizes a decade of abiding if not abetting Sound Transit incompetence.  The paper continues to ignore the fact the $54 billion approved in 2016 for “voter approved” extensions has grown to $142 billion.  

In this case abiding Sound Transit's decision to “budget $240 million to accelerate a North Seattle station surrounded  by minimal housing and jobs".  It’s similar to the Sound Transit Board’s January 27^th decision to authorize spending “an amount not to exceed $287,260,000" for a NE 85^th St Stride Bus Rapid Transit station along I-405 into Bellevue, also without parking for access.

 

 

 

The July 14^th article justifies the 130^th station on the basis of a Sound Transit Board member’s claim “is a matter of social equity for the north side’s influx of people of color and lower-income families.”  It’s unclear how many will choose to live withing walking distance. Sound Transit is planning to spend $15 million improving 85^th St in Kirkland to facilitate bus routes for access from downtown Kirkland.

The article claims the “station estimates rose from $80 million to $144 million in 2020 and to $223 million this spring. The authors were apparently unaware it wasn’t until a June 9^th System Expansion Committee meeting the cost increase was approved with the following: 

 Resolution No. R2022-17: Adopting the NE 130^th Street Infill Station project baseline schedule and budget by (a) increasing authorized project allocation by $203,738,000 from $36,417,000 to $240,155,000, (b) increasing the annual project budget by $9,883,027 from $6,584,030 to $16,417,057, and (c) establish an open for service date of Q2 2026.

Also, Sound Transit’s June 7^th release of the April Agency Progress Report, and several earlier reports, had included an Estimated Final Cost (EFC) of $36.4 million.  One would think an article about the station would include information  about what prompted the $204 million increase and how the $10 million annual increase will fund the $204 million cost.   

Even more “interesting” is the fact the Traffic Lab article continues to describe the Lynnwood Link as “Open for Service: 2024”.  They chose to ignore rather than “dig into” why the June 9^th Sound Transit announcement delaying Lynnwood Link debut for at least 2 years.

One reason could be Sound Transit has recognized that the Traffic Lab ridership claims in the article are overly “optimistic”.  They're quoted as being based on a “Lynnwood Link Final Environment Statement, April 2015”.  They reflect the same “optimism” the Traffic Lab had when they heralded the Northgate Link debut as “Transit Transformed" with 42,000 to 49,000 riders added by the Link’s three stations.

Yet they abide Sound Transit not releasing the quarterly “Service Provided Performance Report 2021-Q4 that would have provided the data.  The best estimate is the change in total ridership with the debut was 8000 daily, a fraction of Sound Transit's 41,000 to 49,000 prediction.  The reason, the lack of access with parking near stations or near bus routes to stations. 

Since the Lynnwood Link adds little access, its debut will do little to add riders.  What riders it adds will reduce access for University Link riders and the longer route operating costs will further reduce farebox revenue recovery.   Portending even more debacles with all the light rail spine extensions.  The later that happens the better for Sound Transit.

Again, the Traffic Lab needs to “dig-into” the delay, not ignore it.