Starter Line Debut Doubts

The April 21 Seattle Times Traffic Lab front page article “Eastside’s newest startup: Light rail line finally arrives” begins with claims it “will change how Eastsiders think about getting around”.  The “finally arrives” description reflects the East Link debut’s delay from its June 2023 service date due to need to redo track attachments.

 

The claim it “will change how Eastsiders think about getting around“  is similar to a Traffic Lab’s September 26^th 2021 “Transit Transformation” .headline. It heralded the Northgate Link, October 2^nd debut as “Lght rail ready to open at Northgate, changing more than just commutes".  It included the following regarding Northgate Link benefits:

Sound Transit has estimated the new Northgate, Roosevelt, and U-District stations that open Saturday will attract a combined 42,000 to 49.000 riders per day.

Yet the paper still abides ST not releasing data showing how many commuters used the three stations to access light rail. Total ridership increases from when Northgate link debuted indicate only a fraction of the projected riders were added.  The problem being not enough people had access to the three light rail stations. Despite attempts to boost ridership by forcing commuters who previously ride buses to transfer to light rail. Reducing transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to increase transit ridership.

The ST predictions for 4000-5700 Starter Link riders seem equally dubious. The 6.6-mile, 8-station route’s 2-car trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day would seem to suffice. Again, it’s that, except for 300 stalls at RTC and BelRed station, access is limited to those living within walking distance of the remaining stations.

Potential riders already have access to KCM Rapid Ride B. It provides 173 trips with up to 50 stops from 4:21am to 01:01am from Redmond Transit Center and Bellevue T/C.  Yet the article reported it only carries 4200 riders to and from Bellevue.  Its schedule shows it takes 26 minutes from RTC to Bellevue T/C, the result of it providing access at all the potential stops. (“a meandering. 25-minute ride”, per Redmond Mayor) 

The decision to route the Starter Line to South Bellevue presumably reflects the inability to reverse direction at Bellevue T/C.  Access to the Line is limited to those within walking distance of East Main station.  Those potential riders currently have access to 8 stops on ST550 from downtown Bellevue to South Bellevue every 10 minutes during peak commute with 15 to 30 minutes off peak from 4:54 am to 12:27 am.

The transit options already available would seem to limit Starter Line ridership. Even the Seattle Times recognizes the need to attract new riders. The April 26^th Traffic Lab details “What to expect when you try the Eastside’s eight light rail station” and a “how-to guide for the new Eastside light rail line”.  Clearly in hopes of adding new transit riders.

It's highly unlikely even downtown Bellevue Starter Line commuters will chose to transfer to Starter Line at South Bellevue on return trips. Routes from Bellevue T/C face another problem, light rail noise.  The Bellevue Municipal Noise Code limits levels to 55 dB in residential areas and 60 dB in commercial. Those limits resulted in ST spending millions to shield homes across Bellevue Way and along route into Bellevue. 

Yet ST makes no attempt to shield Starter Line route, limiting noise mitigation to what their CEO considers as “reasonable and feasible”.  They don’t even intend to monitor noise levels, instead relying on operators to limit velocity to reduce levels. Train noise level concerns would seem to limit those wanting to live within walking distance.

None of the Traffic Lab articles deal with Starter Line cost.  ST allocated $42 million for activation.  Their operating plans call for 2-car light rail trains every 10 minutes over the 6.6 route from RTC to South Bellevue and back.  The resulting 96 trips of 13.2 miles for 2-car trains will result in 2534.4 vehicle miles daily.  

ST budgets light rail cars ad ~$30 per revenue vehicle mile (RVM) or $76,000 per day. Thus, with $2.50 fares, likely ridership fare box revenue will be dwarfed by operating costs.

The bottom line is the Starter Line debut reflects the ST approach to public transit is “if we build it riders will come”.  The results been they've spent $42 million expediting a transit system costing $76,000 daily to attract 4000 to 5700 riders.  The question remains whether the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, so willing to abet  them will report if they did.