Lynnwood Link’s Debut

The previous post questioned whether the new Megaproject hire, Terri Mestas, would recognize Sound Transit’s biggest problem is the Board doesn’t recognize 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak. 

That the Board compounds the lack-of-capacity problem by using it to replace bus routes. The result is the money and time spent implementing their transit expansion will result in a product that doesn't reduce congestion, it only increases transit operating costs. Adding to what area residents will be required to pay off\ the bonds that funded that failure, far beyond 2046.

This post details why the Lynnwood debut detailed in the April 5^th Seattle Times front page article typifies Traffic Lab failure to recognize that failure.  For example, it reports “thousands who currently transfer to trains at Northgate will take the whole way from the four new stations to the University of Washington and beyond”. The Traffic Lab apparently doesn't recognize using light rail to replace buses at Northgate reduced transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to reduce I-5 GP congestion.

It included a Sound Transit spokesman’s forecast the Link will add 5,000 to 35,000 riders to the 1 line’s 72,000 daily trips in late 2023.  The 5000-rider prediction, a substantial “adjustment” to the Sound Transit website’s 25,300 to 34,200.  The spokesman explained Sound Transit was “hedging their bets” in response to changing conditions. 

Their “hedging” resulted in adding a special Route 515, continue routing ST510 into and out of Seattle. They also doubled Sounder routes from Everett, another example of their “field of dreams” approach that if they provide it riders will come.

Again, neither Sound Transit nor Traffic Lab apparently recognize the Sound Transit goal should be to reduce I-5 travel times into Seattle.  An April 9^th WSDOT Travel Time reported the average travel time on the 15.2-mile Lynnwood-to-Seattle route at 7:30 was 40 minutes. That those on the HOV lanes did so in 28 minutes. Clearly Travel times for those riding buses into Seattle wasn’t the problem.

Sound Transit could have reduced the average Lynnwood-to-Seattle travel time by providing increased access to additional bus routes with minimal increase on HOV lane travel time. Instead, Sound Transit will spend $3.3 billion to allow those riding buses on HOV lanes to ride light rail into Seattle. 

Any travel time benefits for former bus riders will “likely” be offset by the need to egress and access in DSTT rather than multiple designated stops in Seattle. That access in DSTT for the return trip along with those with shorter routes will be a particular problem.  That the cost of providing that service will dwarf any savings in bus operating cost. Especially during off-peak operation with fewer riders in either 4-car train or bus.

The bottom line is the Traffic Lab Lynnwood Link article typifies their failure to recognize the folly of Sound Transit using 4-car light rail trains to replace bus routes into Seattle.  They’re apparently unaware those riding buses on HOV lanes are already traveling 30% faster than GP lane riders. That Sound Transit has spent $3.3 billion extending light rail that will add $200,000 to daily operating costs for light rail trains of dubious benefit to riders and no help for GP lane commuters.