Seattle Times Abets Link Lynnwood Debacle.

The Seattle Times May 25^th B2 page Traffic Lab article, “Cost estimate up again for Link Lynnwood extension” typifies their approach to the extension.   The Lynnwood extension was originally approved and supposedly funded by voters in 2008 as part of Prop 1, extending Central Link all the way to Mill Creek.  At the time, Sound Transit officials hailed it as “A gift to our grandchildren”.   Sound Transit initially used the “slow economy” to justify no longer going to Mill Creek.  Now they're using the area’s “hot economy” to question whether they can even get to Lynnwood. 

The Sound Transit Board’s unanimous approval of the $3.2 billion budge means even if they manage to get $1.1 billion in federal money local tax payers will still be on the hook for $2.1 billion.  The question is “what will they get for their money?”  The Transit Lab article cites Sound Transit claims Link Lynnwood “would add 68,500 daily passengers to the light-rail network”. 

Yet less than a year ago, a 6/19/17 Times Traffic Lab, front-page article, “Here’s why I-5 is such a mess” was far less “optimistic”. It not only identified the problem,  “increased daily vehicle volume”, it concluded the following regarding the benefits of Link Lynnwood;

 Sound Transit 3’s light-rail system, as it expands over the next 25 years, will do little to ease I-5 traffic, but it will give some commuters an escape hatch to avoid it”.

Thus in less than a year the Times Traffic Lab has gone from Link Lynnwood  “doing little to ease I-5 traffic” to giving credence to Sound Transit’s claim it would “add 68,500 daily passengers to the light-rail network”.   They apparently “forgot” Link Lynnwood was routed through a Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) the Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) concluded in 2004 limited total ridership to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.

Accommodating 68,500 daily riders through the DSTT would take nearly 4 hours every morning and afternoon, eliminating access to those currently using Central Link’s University extension as well as the additional 15,000 daily riders Sound Transit “expects” for Northgate extension.   (The additional 37,000 daily riders Sound Transit promised voters to justify spending ST3 funds extending light rail to Everett further reduces access.)

However, it’s “unlikely” the Lynnwood and Everett extensions will ever have more than a fraction of the promised ridership.   Sound Transit recently reported the combined express bus routes from Everett and Lynnwood (510-513) averaged 8461 daily riders during 2018 1^st Quarter.   While 2040 is a long ways away, some 50,000 commuters are going to have to decide to live within walking distance of the light rail stations since Sound Transit makes very little provision for parking needed for access.  (And when they do those currently riding will no longer have access for much of the day.)                                                     

In the meantime, the 8-mile extension will significantly increase light rail operating costs.   Sound Transit budgets light-rail-operating cost at about $25 per mile.   Thus the 8-mile extension will add ~$1600 to a round trip.  Assuming 180 round trips a day (4 minute headways for 8 hours with 8 minute headways for 8) the Link Lynnwood will $288,000 to daily operating costs, approximately $90 million annually,  dwarfing potential fare box revenue for years.

Rather than spending $2.1 (or $3.2 billion) on the Link Lynnwood extension over the next 6 years Sound Transit could spend $350 million over the next 3-4 years creating five 1000-stall parking lots between Lynnwood and Everett with access to I-5 bus service to Seattle.  Commuters could pay a monthly or yearly parking fee to assure access to a stall and bus route to cover operating costs, allowing others to ride free. The 12/03/17 post detailed how the parking fees would provide capacity for 20,000 more commuters each day. 

If 20,000 commuters, who previously drove cars during the 2-hour morning and afternoon peak commutes, rode buses, the five Pay-to-Park lots could reduce traffic volume by up to 10,000 vehicles per hour; equivalent to adding 5 lanes of freeway.  With Link Lynnwood the likely result would be those currently riding buses will be transferred to trains, doing nothing to reduce congestion.  

A debacle the Seattle Times abets.