WSDOT HOT Lane Debacle Continues

The Oct 1^st Seattle Times B1 page article concerning the failure of the I-405 HOT to meet the 45mph requirement is another example of the WSDOT showing more concern for increasing revenue rather than for reducing congestion.  The criteria for whether HOT lanes sufficiently reduce congestion should be some percent of vehicles are required to average the 45 mph.   Instead the WSDOT legal requirement is the HOT lanes “move traffic at least 45 mph on average at peak hours, 90 percent of the time”.

What’s absurd is they chose to define “peak commute” as being from 5:00 to 9:00 am.  Only a small percent of commuters do so between 5:00 and 6:00 am.  Yet the WSDOT can use the resulting higher speeds to raise their “peak-commute” average velocities.    That allows them to claim the 81% success rate despite the probability most HOT commuters don’t average the 45 mph.    While the WSDOT might not be able to determine the percentage of vehicles that do average the 45 mph they could get a more relevant level by averaging velocities between 6:00 and 9:00 am.  Doing so would substantially drop the 81% “success” level. 

According to the article, “state law requires toll lanes meet the 45 mph standard and collect at least enough money to meet operating costs or they must be terminated as soon as practicable.”    Only the WSDOT would construe that as meaning “the toll lanes must fail to meet both requirements before they be terminated”.   Even their claim they meet the operating cost requirement is “dubious” since they had to spend $484 million implementing HOT lanes that “raked in $24 million in the first 21 months”. 

According to a February 5^th Seattle Times front-page article, “Life in the Toll Lane”, even the WSDOT has changed its prime HOT goal from "financing more road capacity to managing congestion”.   However, their approach to “managing congestion” is exemplified in the Oct. 1^st article claiming, ”whenever general lanes are added they soon fill up again”. They’re clearly far more interested in extracting tolls from those “that really need to get to…” than in reducing congestion. 

For example, the article shows that between 5:00 and 9:00 am the GP lanes between Lynnwood and N.E 160^th.average only 24 mph.  (Again, GP lane velocities for most commuters will be even slower.)  Yet the WSDOT approach to “managing congestion” is “looking into spending around $450 million on a second HOT lane”.    The ignore transportation committee chairman Sen. King’s suggestion the added lane be a GP lane. 

Another example of WSDOT “managing congestion”: It frequently takes more than an hour to commute along I-405 between Renton and Bellevue.  There the WSDOT is planning to spend $1 billion extending HOT on both the 4^th lane they’re adding and the current HOV lane.  Allocating two of the 4 lanes to HOT for those “that really need to...” along with making it more difficult to carpool will only increase congestion on GP lanes. 

In 2007, the joint Sound Transit/WSDOT “loss of mobility” negotiations with Mercer Island included plans for implementing HOT on HOV lanes: “presumably” in anticipation of heavy congestion.  Yet they later convinced a federal judge the I-90 Bridge center roadway wasn’t needed for vehicles in the Freeman lawsuit, allowing Sound Transit to proceed with plans to install light rail.  The WSDOT recently allowed Sound Transit to close bridge center roadway despite 2004 FHWA conclusion it was still needed for vehicles, a sure precursor for HOT and more WSDOT revenue.

Despite all these obvious problems the Times article concludes “by some measures, I-405 is doing fine”.  (But then several of their earlier Traffic Lab” articles have advocated for tolls as the way to reduce congestion.)  The Times claims the 81 per cent of time they met the 45 mph compares favorably to the 62% two years ago.  Since then they've added another lane in each direction  between Bothell and Bellevue so it’s not clear where the improvements came from.  However, a PSRC “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report” included a figure, “I-405 Delay: Lynnwood to Tukwila” showing southbound delays didn’t even begin until Bothell.  The fact HOT implementation has resulted in GP lanes averaging only 24 mph from 5:00 to 9:00 am along that portion of the route is hardly a case for concluding “I-405 is doing fine”.  

The bottom line is tolls only reduce congestion when commuters have an alternative.  The HOT alternative only reduces congestion on the HOV lane because more drivers are unable to meet the +3HOV requirement than are willing to pay the tolls.  Those former HOV drivers increase GP lane congestion causing more drivers to pay HOT fees.  That "forces" the WSDOT in increase tolls to limit the number of HOT vehicles to meet the 45 mph "requirement".  

The WSDOT uses the need to increase tolls higher than $10.00 to meet the 45mph requirement to justify adding a second HOT lane between Lynnwood and Bothell.  Typical of their approach to "managing congestion" they ignore the "possibility" adding an additional GP lane might increase velocities, reducing the incentive to pay tolls and the need to raise them.  (I'll leave it to others to decide if the loss in toll revenue affected their decision there, as well as the decision to use the added lane between Bothell and Bellevue, and the new lane between Bellevue and Renton as second HOT lanes affected their decision.)  As it is, adding another HOT lane will do nothing to increase the current 24 mph between Lynnwood and Bothell.  

The House and Senate Transportation Committees need to use their WSDOT oversight responsibility to end this HOT debacle.