A previous post detailed how the initial Sound Transit Starter Line ridership for August showed 1695 riders, a fraction of 4000-5700 predictions. That plans to use Line 2 to provide half the trains to Lynnwood would require Sound Transit double the number of light rail cars in the Starter Line area. The result being operating costs will dwarf any rational farebox revenue. Subsequent Ridership—Ridership reports neglected to include the August results.
The September 26th Sound Transit Board meeting presntations included reports the light rail extension had 68,000 residents living within a mile of the 4 new Line 1 Lynnwood stations. That “71,000 rode the system just on opening weekend”.
The initial October release of Ridership—Ridership data indicated very few of those residents chose to ride Lynnwood Link. It included the September ridership from the August 30th debut for each of the four link stations and total boardings are listed below:
Lynnwood T/C 5094
Mountlake Terrace 1353
Shoreline North 947
Shoreline South 1002
Total Boardings 8395
Again, subsequent Ridership—Ridership reports neglected to include either August or September results. Thus, the ridership data detailed here is limited by what was recorded prior to deletion.
The 8395 ridership was "good news" for Line 1 riders because those using downstream stations won’t be “crowded out” by Lynnwood Link riders. (Sound Transit concerns resulted in their implementing a 515 route from Lynnwood to Seattle and an additional Sounder route from Everett.)
The “bad news” for Sound Transit was the 8395 riders were far less than the 25,333 to 34,200 Sound Transit predictions and a tiny fraction of the 71,000 who rode the system on opening weekend. Clearly, 8395 riders using light rail each day for the commute into and out of Seattle does little to reduce I-5 congestion. Especially since most of the Lynnwood Link riders previously rode buses.
For example, the Initial release of those boarding at Northgate dropped from 8007 in August to 4085 in September. A clear indication many of the 5094 Lynnwood T/C boarders previously rode buses to Northgate for the commute. Some of those boarders were the result of Sound Transit’s decision to terminate ST512 there rather than continue into Seattle. However, the number of ST512 boardings for September in the initial release wasn’t recorded prior to it being deleted.
Also, many of the Lynnwood Links 8395 total boardings were presumably the result of Community Transit’s decision to use the Link to replace all the 400 routes into and out of Seattle. Commuters from Stanwood, Marysville, Lake Stevens, Mukilteo, Edmonds, Mill Creek and others were all routed to one of the Link’s 4 stations.. However there’s no information about how many or where they transferred or how many were dissuaded from using transit because of the need to transfer to and from light rail for the commute.
The ”bad news” resulting from only 8395 riders is also the cost of providing those rides. The 8.5-mile extension essentially doubles trip length and cost from Northgate to Westlake. Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30.00 per revenue vehicle mile. Thus, the 8.5-mile extension from Northgate to Lynnwood adds $2040 for each 4-car train’s round trip.
Sound Transit’s current Line 1 schedule shows trains every 10 minutes from 5:07 am to 8:47 pm, 12-minute intervals to 10:23, 15 until12:08 and a final train at 12:50 am. The resulting 107 trips add $218,280 to Line 1 daily 4-car operating costs. That next year when Line 2 trains are also routed to Lynnwood, enabling Sound Transit plans for routes every 4 minutes during most of the day. The costs of operation will more than double but do little to increase riders.
The “really bad news” for Sound Transit is the Lynnwood Link ridership again demonstrates the fallacy of its "field of dreams" approach that “if we build it riders will come”. That extensions to Everett and Federal Way are not only unlikely to reduce I-5 congestion, their operating costs will be a huge financial burden for the entire Sound Transit service area.
One can only hope the Sound Transit Board recognizes that reality rather than continue to hide the debacle.
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