Sound Transit’s Lynnwood Capacity Problem

Sound Transit recently began implementing the $3.00 fare for all riders from 19 to 64 presumably hoping to increase the farebox recovery of operating costs.  Higher light rail train operating costs led to the initial goal for fares to provide 40% of operating costs. They later reduced the goal to a minimum of 17% with a 22% target and set adult fares ranging from $2.25 to $3.50 based on distance traveled. 

A December 15, 2023, Sound Transit News release reported, “46% of Link passengers pay adult fares with the remainder using employer-funded passes or reduced fare products.  Youth 18 and under ride free”.  Yet the latest available Quarterly Financial Report for Q1/2024 details that 6,036 thousand riders paid $6,993 thousand in fares, or $1.109 in fares per rider. 

The report included an average $11.37 cost per rider for a 9.75% farebox recovery, slightly more than half the minimum 17% recovery.  Presumably the employer-funded fares provided the required fares for the trip. Thus, most of the 46% adults riding apparently didn’t pay fares.  The idea that the July average 6767 Capitol Hill daily boarders who rode to Westlake or all those along the route from Sodo to CID who didn’t pay the $2.25 would somehow pay the new $3.00 fares seems “dubious” at best.

The 8,5-mile Lynnwood Link extension exacerbates the cost part of the farebox-recovery problem, Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30.00 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, the 8.5-mile extension adds $2040 for each 4-car train’s round trip from UW stadium. Sound Transit’s current Line 1 schedule shows trains every 10 minutes from 5:07 am to 8:47 pm, 12-minute intervals to 10:23, 15 until12:08 and a final train at 12:50 am. The resulting 107 trips add $218,280 to Line 1 daily operating costs. 

Providing 22% of the $218,280 cost with $3.00 tolls will require 16,000 daily boardings, about half  Sound Transit’s 25,300 to 34,200 predicted riders.  The July Northgate ridership averaged 14,721, a third of Sound Transit’s pre-debut 41,000 to 49,000 predictions.  

Presumably the 16,000 Lynnwood and 14,721 Northgate Link riders are all into Seattle, so 30,721 will reach the UW Stadium.  If 75% do so during the 3-hour peak morning commute, 7680 riders will do so each hour, 

Sound Transit assumes each 74-seat car can accommodate 150 riders or 600 riders on each 4-car light rail train.  With 10 minute intervals between trains, capacity is limited to 3600 riders per hour, less than half the 7680 rider needed if the number of Lynnwood boarders paying $3.00 fares were sufficient to provide 22% of the Link’s operating costs.  The University of Washington Stadium’s daily July 4030 riders just adds to the problem at Capitol Hill, particularly gauling for those now forced to pay $3.00 fares.

Community Transit attempts to reduce “crowding” by adding an ST515 route from Lynnwood into Seattle with stops at Montlake Terrace, presumably keeping the fares. A high capacity bus can accommodate 115 riders, so an ST515 route every 10 minutes could accommodate 690 riders, far from what’s needed to end “crowding” at UW station.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit’s projections for 25,300 to 35,200 additional Lynnwood Link riders dwarfs Line 1 peak hour capacity into Seattle.  Thus, unless actual riders added during peak commute are limited to a  fraction of projections, UW Station and Capitol Hill riders will lose access to Line 1 trains.  

It’s not clear how Sound Transit will limit Lynnwood Link peak-hour access, but the costs of providing 107 daily light rail trains to and from Northgate will dwarf any fares they pay.