Lynnwood Link Costs

The previous post detailed the Traffic Lab didn’t "get it" that the ST/SCT plan to use the $3.3 billion Lynnwood extension to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into Seattle and do nothing to reduce I-5 GP congestion.  This post details how much that service, public transit along I-5 corridor into Seattle, will add to the cost. 

 Sound Transit budgets light rail car operating costs at ~$30.00 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, the 8.5 mile extension adds $510 for each car’s round trip. Sound Transit’s current Lynnwood plans call for 3 or 4-car trains every 8 minutes for 20 hours a day.  The resulting 150 round trips of 3 or 4 car trains, 450 to 600 car trips, will add $229,500 to $306,000 daily to Line 1 link operating costs: $11,445 and $15,300 per hour, double the current costs from Northgate into Seattle.

 

The other cost is the loss access for current Line 1 riders. Assuming each light rail train car can accommodate 150 riders, 3 and 4 trains every 8 minutes can accommodate 3375 to 4500 riders an hour.  Sound Transit claims the Lynnwood-to-Northgate extension will add 25,300 to 34,200 daily boardings.  If 80% did so during the 6-hour peak commute, the extension would add 3373 to 4560 riders per hour, essentially ending Line 1 riders' access during peak commute.

The Sound Transit/Snohomish Community Transit response to the “crowding” is to implement the 515 bus route between Lynnwood and Seattle.  While they haven’t released a schedule, a bus every ten minutes could only accommodate ~600 commuters an hour, doing little to reduce  Line 1 “crowding”.  The 14 hours of off-peak operation will still add $160,230 to $214,200 to daily operation costs with few riders to pay fares.

 

The bottom line is the Lynnwood extension will double the cost of public transit along I-5 corridor into Seattle. Again, using it to replace bus routes will reduce transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce I-5 GP lane congestion.  Current Line 1 riders are fortunate the Lynnwood debut, despite recent Traffic Lab claims it will be a "magnet" for growth near stations, will “likely” demonstrate ridership far less than Sound Transit projections and far less fare revenue.  

That subsequent plans to route  Line 2 trains to Lynnwood will double the train frequency and end potential crowding, but also double the operating costs, an especially heavy burden during off peak operation.

 

Look forward to seeing the actual Lynnwood ridership results, if and when Sound Transit releases them. Something they still haven”t done since the last quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports were released for Q1/2021.