Traffic Lab Abets ST’s Biggest Blunder.

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab which began as a “project that digs into the region’s thorny transportation issues” has devolved into one that “explores the region’s policies that determine how we get around and how billions of dollars in public money are spent”.  It shouldn’t take much exploring about “how billions of dollars in public money are spent” to question Sound Transit’s ability to spend money wisely.  For example, they’ve abided Sound Transit using ST3 approval in 2016 to spend $54B between 2016 and 2041 to build out their ST3 map to spend $145B between 2016 and 2046 and leave a $28.4B debt in 2047 well after ST3 taxes ended in 2041.

The Traffic Lab “explored” the $2.7B Northgate Link prior its October 2021 debut. Predicting it would be “Transit Transformed” with 42,000 to 49,000 daily riders added by extension’s three stations. Yet they continue to abet Sound Transit no longer releasing a Quarterly Service Delivery Performance Report which would have revealed ridership was a fraction of predictions.. 

Any “exploring” would have concluded the limited ridership was due to lack of access to light rail stations for route into Seattle.  Prior to Northgate, ST510-513 routes had multiple stops on Stewart St and 5^th Ave on the route in on 4^th Ave and Olive way on the return.  King Country Metro routed KCM41 from Northgate to multiple stops on 3^rd Ave for egress and access.  

The Northgate debut ended routes ST511-513 and KCM41 into Seattle.  Since the Northgate extension did nothing to increase light rail capacity, the $2 billion spent extending light rail reduced transit capacity into the city.  Something surely worthy of Traffic Lab ”exploring".

The Traffic Lab “exploring” the East Link Starter Line resulted in an  April 21^st Seattle Times front page claim the East Link Starter Line debut would “change how Eastsiders think about getting around”.  Subsequent articles detailed how to pay the fares to ride and predicted how each of the 8 Starter Line stations would attract riders.  

Yet they haven’t “explored” why the $42 million Sound Transit spent expediting a transit system that costs $76,000 daily to operate attracted  less than the 4000-5700 riders predicted since its April 27^th debut.  That the likely reason was commuters had better access to KCM Rapid Ride B from Redmond to Bellevue and ST550 from Bellevue to South Bellevue.  That limited access along the entire corridor outweighed Sound Transit’s expectation “if we build it riders will come”.

The Traffic Lab continues abetting Sound Transit claims for increased ridership when Line 2 trains begin service across I-90 Bridge.  Yet, they plan to end ST550 when service begins, limiting access to transit in Bellevue to those within walking distance of Bellevue T/C and East Main station. They also terminate all I-90 corridor bus routes on Mercer Island, ending egress and access at multiple stops on 5^th and 4^th Ave in Seattle with light rail to and from stations in DSTT.  A disincentive to even use public transit.

Sound Transit exacerbates that loss by choosing to route Line 2 through DSTT to Northgate and beyond.  Again, spending billions on a project that limits both Line 1 and Line 2 links to trains every 8 minutes until 2039 when 2^nd tunnel debuts should merit “exploring”.

The most blatant example of Traffic Lab failure is there abetting Sound Transit spending $12.5 B on the Ballard to Sodo Link.  Competent "exploring" would conclude they could end the need of a second tunnel northward terminating Line 2 and West Seattle extension at the existing CID station. Those needing to go beyond CID could ride Line 1 through DSTT.  Line 2 and West Seattle extensions could be scheduled to meet local demand. Line 1 wouldn't loose half the DSTT trains to Line 2 and West Seattle riders would no longer reduce Line 1 capacity.

Competent "exploring" would also conclude there was no need for a southbound Ballard to Sodo tunnel.   KCM Rapid Ride C, D, and E and Routes 2-5 and 40 already provide the area with better access to transit. The bus stops cost a fraction of light rail stations and funding the routes operation a fraction of light rail train, especially during off-peak operation.  

The KCM buses are all routed to multiple stops on 3^rd Ave for egress inbound and access outbound. Construction will end KCM40 from Northgate and Rapid Ride C and Streetcar service from South Lake Union along Westlake Ave.  When the Ballard to Sodo light rail begins most commuters from Ballard and beyond to Crown Hill will continue to use the far better access to Rapid Ride D for the ride to 3^rd Ave than  Ballard-to-Westlake light rail 

The need for riders presumable influenced Sound Transit’s decision to select “Denny Shifted North + SLU 7^th/Harrison as the Preferred Alternative.  That King County Metro will terminate Rapid Ride E there forcing riders to use escalators to reach trains to and from a far less convenient Westlake station.  Ending  Ballard-to-Westlake light rail would allow those riders to continue into Seattle and avoid the years of disruption from Denny and Westlake closures.  Those needing to go from South Lake Union to Westlake and beyond can do so via existing DSTT.  

 The bottom line is Sound Transit is currently planning to spend $12.5 billion on a Ballard to Sodo extension that debuts in 2039.  Previous posts have detailed how terminating East Link and West Seattle at existing CID would end the need for a 2^nd tunnel northbound.  This post opines the Ballard to Sodo 2^nd tunnel south isn’t needed because KCM routes already provide better service along entire route.  

That Sound Transit blundered when it approved plans to spend $12.5B and more than ten years disrupting downtown Seattle boring a tunnel and South Lake Union with light rail construction. All on a transit system that not only doesn't increase capacity it ends  Rapid Ride E commuters’ better access in Seattle.

The Traffic Lab needs to stop abetting Sound Transit’s blunder.