Sound Transit Board’s Biggest Problem

A previous post opined the Sound Transit Board’s decision to ignore the failure of the Northgate Link to meet expectations for ridership was more of a problem than finding places to store and maintain light rail cars when Lynnwood Link begins operation.  

This post details Sound Transit’s biggest problem is a Board of Directors made up of elected officials who don’t understand the basics of effective public transit.  That their goal should be to provide transit for those who can’t or don’t choose to drive in sufficient numbers to reduce congestion for those who do. And do so in a cost-effective way.

A transit system board should consist of people with the competence needed to oversee the creation of a transit system aimed at meeting that goal.  Instead, Dow Constantine’s board consists of those who've approved implementing light rail on I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail and willing to approve a light rail “spine” that won't.  

For example, a competent transit board would have never approved Sound Transit confiscating the I-90 Bridge center roadway for light rail.  That doing so precluded 2-way, BRT-only with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost.  Sound Transit compounded that failure by choosing to route trains through DSTT, halving the number of trains for Central Link.  

They add to the problem by using light rail to replace cross-lake buses, reducing transit capacity into the city.  Forcing I-90 corridor commuters to endure the hassle of transferring to and from light rail trains for the commute into and out of Seattle.  As the last station on east side, they’ll be sharing light rail train's remaining limited capacity with Mercer Island commuters: a particular problem during peak commute.  

The board has used the delay needed to redo track attachments to approve spending $47 million to implement an East Link Starter Line (ELSL).  Routing 2-car light rail trains every 10 minutes for 16 hours a day from Redmond Technology Center to South Bellevue Station.  At least initially, sharing access to transit with Rapid Ride E to Bellevue and ST 550 to South Bellevue.  The lack of access along route and the need to transfer to and from ST 550 at South Bellevue will limit ridership to far less than the 7000 initially predicted and operating costs that will dwarf fare box revenue.

The Board’s plan for the Lynnwood Link Extension (LLE) debut this fall is the next demonstration of the Board’s most expensive blunder. Their failure to recognize the light rail “spine” won’t reduce I-5 congestion into or out of Seattle. That 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.   

Instead, the Boards used the ST3 approval to spend $54 billion from 2017 to 2041 to currently plan to spend $160 billion from 2017-2046 primarily on extending the spine.   A competent transit board would have never extended light rail beyond the UW stadium station.  The Northgate extension's October 2021 debut demonstrated the lack of access limited ridership to a fraction of 41,000-49,000 riders they’d predicted.  Rather than add parking to increase ridership Sound Transit used the link to replace bus routes into and out of Seattle.

Still ridership was far less than predicted and since the link did nothing to increase capacity, riders added reduced access from UW station.  Using the Link to replace bus routes into Seattle reduced transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce I-5 GP lane congestion.   

Sound Transit plan for the Lynnwood Link Extension increases all the Northgate Link problems, replacing more bus routes, reducing transit capacity, and further limiting UW access. It also exacerbates the Northgate Link's high costs of operating light rail trains.

Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs at ~$30 per mile, more than twice that of a bus.  It’s unclear how many trains will have 3 or 4 cars or what their peak hour and off peaks schedule will be. However, the operating costs for the 8.5-mile extension and a reasonable schedule would add $200,000 daily to the Northland Link operating cost.  Dwarfing the operating costs of the bus routes its replacing and any fare box revenue from added riders.  Especially during off-peak operation.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board's biggest problem is their continued  failure to recognize that light rail trains on I-90 Bridge or the light rail "spine" on I-5 won't reduce roadway congestion into or out of Seattle. That the Board's hiring the Transit Advisory Group and private consultant improve the "process" for implementing those extensions will do nothing to improve the "product". The East Link Starter Line and Lynnwood Link Extension debuts this year will "likely" demonstrate that failure. The question remains whether the Seattle Times Traffic Lab will "dig into" that failure.