Sound Transit’s Big Cost Driver

The Sound Transit Board May 25^th meeting included the 2023 Annual Program Review.  The “key takeaway” was the program remains affordable on the “affordable schedule” but the “target schedule” remains unaffordable.” That capital costs have increased $472M since 2022, that debt capacity is 15.9% higher than what’s needed to be affordable.

 

However, the project affordability gap, the ability to pay off the debt, DSCR, (Total revenue, minus operating cost divided by debt service) has decreased from 2.36x in 2016 when ST3 was approved, to 1.67x in Spring 2023, near 1.5X policy minimum.

 

The presentation included Sound Transit attempts to identify the “Cost drivers” reducing the affordability gap. That current cost drivers remain high but are plateauing and “Cost drivers are shifting to O&M cost to support a growing system with emerging and evolving needs".

 

Sound Transit chose to respond to the need to increase “affordability gap” (DSCR) by delaying the Ballard extension from 2037 to 2039. Yet the Ballard extensions “Cost driver” is not the 5-mile route from Ballard to Westlake, it’s the $12B needed to bore the second tunnel and to implement the four stations needed for access. Yet the Board concurred with the Sound Transit decision.

 

Prior to the Annual Program Review, Sound Transit had presented the Board with the status of the Everett Link extension. That the 16-mile, six-station extension had an “Affordable Schedule” for SW Everett Industrial as 2037. (Two years prior to Ballard Extension)

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit and the Board have chosen to give a higher priority to the 16-mile Everett extension than the 7-mile Ballard extension. They ignore the fact the Ballard extension will add transit capacity into Seattle while the Everett extension will be used to replace bus routes: Reducing transit capacity into the city and access for current riders.

 

That any rational “Cost Driver” assessment should include the nearly $4000 trip cost added by the 16-mile Everett extension for 4-car light rail trains from Lynnwood.  Sound Transit and Board could terminate Ballard extension at existing Westlake station, minimize operating costs as well as the $12B needed for 2^nd tunnel and stations. Doing so would provide an affordable Ballard extension in 2031, like the West Seattle extension.

 

Sound Transit service area residents, especially potential Ballard extension riders, deserve better.