Let UW Determine Need for 2nd ST Tunnel

The March 24^th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Board favors superstation in Pioneer Square” includes the proviso

The vote Thursday is not a final decision

 

One of the reasons, an estimated $800 million more for the,” Fourth Ave Shallow” station.  Apparently, a new impediment since the March 6^th presentation to System Expansion Committee only included the following benefit for Pioneer Square:

 

 Construction duration of 6-7 years is less than 10-12 years and avoids disruption of major traffic spine 4^th Ave

 

The board rejected suggestions to continue to run the regional spine through the existing tunnel and later route Ballard and West Seattle Links though 2^nd tunnel. No one suggested continuing the “spine” from SeaTac to Everett and terminating the Ballard Link at the existing Westlake station and  West Seattle Link at existing Chinatown station. That combination along with terminating East Link at Chinatown could end the need for a second tunnel.

 

Doing so would not only save billions and years of disruption, it would also allow all three links to match their operation to local needs, rather than what's needed for Federal Way and Everett: savings millions in future operating costs.  Terminating East Link at the existing Chinatown station would also facilitate eastside-to-south and reverse commutes as well as connections for those riding Sounder trains.  

 

The question remains whether the existing tunnel can accommodate those wanting to go beyond Westlake and Chinatown.  Avoiding the need to integrate the East Link return routes minimizes the needed intervals between trains, increases tunnel capacity.  

 

Current ridership into Westlake and Chinatown is limited by the number of stations within walking distance or parking near light rail stations.  (A  November 1st 2016 Seattle Times article reported the 19,488 existing parking stalls with access to transit in the three-county area were already "at least 95% full".)    

 

The October 2021 Northgate Link debut demonstrated the lack-of-access problem”.  Rather than add parking Sound Transit chose to force bus riders using existing parking to transfer to light rail for the commute into and out of Seattle; reducing transit capacity into the city and nothing to reduce I-5 congestion.  Yet they still refuse to release the quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports that would have told us how many of the 41,000- 49,000 predicted riders used the three stations.  

 

The East Link's need to redo track attachments has delayed demonstrating similar problems with Sound Transit’s 50,000 ridership prediction from June 2023 to Q1 2025.  Thus, the 2024 Lynnwood link debut will be the next to demonstrate the validity of their prediction for 37,000 to 57,000 riders.  Sound Transit’s past estimates for ridership into Seattle have been beyond optimistic to delusional.  

They've never acknowledged the need for additional parking for access or that extending light rail does nothing to increase a light rail train's capacity.  For example, since 2019, Sound Transit's staff and the Board have approved yearly Financial Plan and Proposed Budgets with Long Range Plans.  The latest, Sound Transit's 2023 budget's Long Range Plan, predicts annual Link ridership would increase from approximately 20 million in 2022 to 150 million in 2046.  Thus any Sound Transit estimate for Link ridership into Seattle is of "dubious" value.                              (The increase in cost from the $54B approved in 2016 for "voter approved" extensions $149.1B in 2023 budget also raises questions about financial acumen.)

 

The question remains as to how many will choose to continue beyond Westlake and Chinatown stations. The best indication is to assume commuters use the same route for return as arrival. The Westlake and Chinatown Stations had the biggest number of boardings reducing the need for capacity through tunnel. 

 

The bottom line is terminating West Seattle and East Seattle Links at existing Chinatown Station will save billions and years, invigorating the area rather than devastating it.  Terminating Ballard Link will similarly benefit Westlake area.  The three links will be able to set operation as needed to meet local demand.  Someone other than Sound Transit  needs to determine the viability of doing so.  

They should include those in UW Transportation Planning as well as other "outside" consultants. The first step, force Sound Transit release how many riders were added at the  three Northgate Link stations compared the 41,000-49,000 riders they predicted. (Something the Seattle Times Traffic Lab refuses to "dig into").

Any resultant delay is time well spent.