Federal Funding Doesn't Fix Lynnwood and Federal Way Problems

 An earlier post responded to the Seattle Times request for what headline readers would like to see with “Seattle Times Concede 'Voter Approved' Extensions Won’t Reduce Congestion”.  That’s not likely to happen since the year ended with a December 28th Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Feds give Sound Transit a cash advance for 2 light-rail projects”.   

 The article heralded Senators Patty Murray and Maria  Cantwell efforts resulting in the $3.2B Federal Way extension getting $329M and the $3.3B Lynnwood Link getting $254M in 2023. A  substantial increase from the anticipated $282M Federal Grant for the year in Sound Transit’s 2023 Financial Plan and Proposed Budget.  

The headline failure and the added federal funding indicate neither the Traffic Lab nor the senators recognize that 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity for the ridership needed to reduce multi-lane freeway peak hour congestion.  Also, that the Sound Transit service area doesn’t have the parking needed to make up for the lack of access from those living within walking distance of light rail stations.   

The Northgate Link debut demonstrated the lack of access limited ridership to a fraction of Sound Transit’s 41,000-49,000 daily ridership projections.  Whatever ridership it did attract reduced access for University Link riders.  Thus, neither of the two extensions will add the transit ridership needed to reduce I-5 peak-hour congestion into or out of Seattle.  That operating costs for the longer route lengths will make them too expensive to operate during off-peak.   

For example, the Northgate Link’s 4.2-mile extension from UW Stadium added  $1012 per trip, dwarfing fare box revenue during off-peak operation,  Those costs will be doubled by the 8.4-mile Lynnwood Link and 7.8-mile Federal Way Link, further reducing off-peak fare box revenue recovery.    The Lynnwood Link ridership will be limited by the fact that the Northgate Link already provided transit into Seattle for most of the those with access to parking and bus routes.    

Thus, while the link added 1000 stalls at the two Shoreline stations, ridership added will be a tiny fraction of the 37,000 to 57,000 projections. Again, any riders the extension does attract will further limit peak-hour University Link access.    

The Federal Way Link will add to the loss of Link 1 Line capacity from the decision to route half of the DSTT trains across I-90 Bridge.  While its opening date has been delayed, the lack of parking for access limit ridership to a fraction of projected 29,000 –34,000 by 2026.  Again, whatever riders the three stations add further reduces Central Link peak-hour access  

The bottom line is the added Federal Funds may reduce any problems in funding the Lynnwood and Federal Way extensions.   However, Sound Transit and the Seattle Times Traffic Lab need to recognize the funds do nothing to change the fact that neither extension will do anything to reduce congestion, they’ll only increase their operating costs.