This post was prompted by the fact it’s over a year since the Oct 2, 2021, Northgate Link debut. It was the first demonstration of Sound Transit’s ability to use Prop 1 funded light rail spine trains to reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion into Seattle. ST’s website had predicted the 4.3-mile, $1.9B link would add 41,000 to 49,000 riders. The Seattle Times Traffic Lab had heralded the debut as “Transit Transformed” claiming 42,000 to 49,000 commuters would be added by the Link’s three stations.
Yet neither Sound Transit nor the Traffic Lab have provided any Link ridership results. (ST no longer releases the Quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports with ridership added by each station.) Like all the extensions, the Northgate Link did nothing to increase the number of train cars per hour or the number of commuters who could ride in each car. Thus, like all the spine extensions, the Northgate Link did nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.
Sound Transit also did nothing to increase access to transit. An Oct-Dec 2016, WSDOT “Park and Ride Inventory” reported all the parking with access to transit was essentially already “in use”. Rather than add parking Sound Transit chose to require those using the existing parking to ride bus routes into Seattle to use the Northgate Link for the commute into and out of the city.
King County Metro ended KCM 41 from Northgate. Sound Transit’s ST511-513 from Everett was rerouted to Northgate and ST522 from Woodinville to Roosevelt Station. Ending the bus routes reduced total transit capacity into Seattle and nothing to reduce GP lane congestion. Those former bus riders also reduced access for University Link riders.
Again, without Q4 2021 or later service provided reports it’s not clear have many commuters chose to ride Northgate Link. However, the pre-pandemic ridership levels for the ST 510-513 and ST522 bus routes who rode the Link totaled less than 14,000 daily.
Thus, with all the available parking essentially “In use”, the maximum possible terminated bus route commuters riding the Link would have been a fraction of Sound Transit and Traffic Lab predictions. A precursor to a Lynnwood ridership access “problem” that only adds 500 stalls at the two Shoreline stations for Sound Transits claim for 37,000 to 55,000 riders.
The other Northgate Link problem is the loss in farebox recovery from longer route operating costs. Sound Transits 2021 budgets Light Rail Car Revenue Vehicle Mile costs as $30.17. Thus, every mile of extension adds two miles and $241 for a 4-car round trip. The Northgate Link’s 4.2-mile extension from UW Stadium adds $1012 per trip, $126,500 for their schedule of 125-weekday trips.
Thus, even if the Link had attracted pre-pandemic ridership the cost per boarder would have been $9.00. Whatever the costs per Northgate Link boarder, they’ll be dwarfed by those with Lynnwood extension. The 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension will add $253,000 to the for 125-weekday trips, yet add only 1000 stalls for access.
The bottom line is effective public transit requires providing the access needed to attract the number of commuters needed to reduce traffic for those driving. The Northgate Link did nothing to increase light rail transit capacity or add access to public transit. The debut demonstrated Sound Transit attempts to provide access by diverting bus riders to light rail reduced transit capacity into Seattle and still didn’t provide access needed for projected ridership claims.
What remains to be demonstrated is that light rail train’s limited capacity means commuters added by extensions will end access for current riders without significantly reducing multilane freeway congestion. What should have been obvious will apparently take billions and years for Sound Transit to "demonstrate".
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