My “campaign” for U.S. Senator ended August 2nd. As with all my previous candidacies, it’d never been for votes but to use the Voters’ Pamphlet Statement to inform residents. Those in the Sound Transit service area who read the statement are aware of my concerns that the Sound Transit Board and CEO don’t understand the basics of what constitutes effective public transit.
That reducing congestion on I-5 and I-90 requires attracting more riders to public transit. Yet Sound Transit has spent billions on light rail extensions for 4-car trains that don’t have the capacity to attract the number of transit riders needed to reduce peak hour multilane freeway congestion and cost too much to operate during off peak commute.
Attracting riders requires offering commuters access by living near stations, parking near stations, or have access to routes to the transit stations. A November 2016 Seattle Times article reported the 51 existing park and ride facilities next to express bus or train stations in Snohomish, King and Pierce County were already 95% full with 19,948 cars.
Yet Sound Transit plans for increasing access are to “manage parking demand” by maximizing efficient use of available transit parking resources”. Choosing instead to spend nearly $300 million on an 85th NE transit stations along I-405 and a 130th St Infill Station on I-5, whose costs have increased this year from $34 million to $270 million; both with no parking for access.
The Northgate Link debut demonstrated the results of Sound Transit decade long failure to add parking for access. Yet they refuse to release the Service Delivered Performance Report 2022 Q1. That doing so allows them to hide how many of their predicted 41,000 to 49,000 commuters were added by the Link.
Also, how many chose to ride ST510 into and out of Seattle rather than on routes that terminated at light rail station. That knowing the number of riders along with the additional $110,000 daily operating costs for the 108, 4.2-mile extension, 4-car round trips could be used to establish how much each added rider cost.
Sound Transit will have a far greater problem “hiding” the results when 10-station. 14-mile East Link debuts. It’s unclear when that will occur. The August 5th release of the June, Agency Progress Report included the following:
ST is currently working to determine a new target Revenue Date
Whenever it does, Sound Transit won’t be able to hide the results. First, is the problem of lack of access. Sound Transit recognized the 9 east side East Link stations didn’t provide the access needed to justify the cost of the 14-mile light rail extension and operating costs.
That led to a January 21, 2014, presentation to Mercer Island city council claiming 40,000 of the 50,000 East Link riders would come from terminating I-90 corridor bus routes at South Bellevue and Mercer Island parking. Sound Transit will use the Link to replace ST550 route from the 1500-stall South Bellevue and 474-stall Mercer Island P&R.
However, the parking at the P&Rs along I-90 corridor east of 1-405 is limited to 1614 at Eastgate, 874 at Issaquah, and 1000 at Issaquah Highlands. Thus, riders added by terminating the I-90 corridor bus routes and those added at South Bellevue and Mercer Island will be a fraction of Sound Transit 40,000 prediction.
The Link’s 14-mile extension adds 112 vehicle revenue miles for the 4-car light rail train round trip from Redmond Technology Center into and out of Seattle. Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs as ~$30.00 per revenue mile, so that portion of the trip adds $3360. Assuming the Link's schedule matches the current Northgate Link schedule, 10 minutes between trains for 16 hours and 20 minutes for 4 hours. The operating costs for the resultant 108 round trips to Redmond Technology Center and back is $360,000 daily.
However, as part of 2 Line the 4-car East Link trains continue through DSTT eventually to Mariner P&R near Everett. That portion of the 18.5-mile trip from International District/Chinatown through the DSTT to Northgate and in 2024 to Lynnwood and back adds 37 miles and 148 revenue vehicle miles for 4-car trains. The $4440 per trip and $475,200 daily for the 108, Link 2-Line trips will do little to add riders since those with access to transit were already riding Link Line 1. (ST's decision to delay Lynnwood Link "hides" that result for two years.)
The bottom line is Sound Transit doesn’t provide the access needed to justify routing Link Line 2 4-car trains from the Redmond Town Center to Lynnwood (and beyond to Mariner P&R) and back. They could save $475,000 daily by terminating East Link at the International District/Chinatown station.
They could also reduce the $360,000 East Link operating costs by limiting trains to size and frequency to meet demand on route to Redmond Town Center and use bus routes into Seattle for I-90 corridor commuters.
If not, they won’t be able to hide the Link Line 2 operating cost debacle.
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