Sound Transit Board Incompetence Continues

The video of the May 12^th System Expansion Committee typifies a Sound Transit Board made up of elected officials who have no understanding of how to use public transit to reduce roadway congestion.  The first requirement is commuters need access to the transit system.  The Northgate Link debut demonstrated that failure with only 8000 riders, a small fraction of Sound Transit’s website 41,000-49,000 predictions. That the Link lacked access with parking near stations or near bus routes to stations for those unable to walk to stations.  A requirement that should have been obvious has instead been ignored.  

All the Prop 1 and ST3 “voter approved” extensions face similar problems. Sound Transit “sold” the extensions as the way to reduce freeway congestion into Seattle.  That the Prop 1 and ST3 “voter approved” extensions would attract a total of between 238,000 and 282,000 commuters to the Prop 1 and ST3 light rail spine along I-5 and I-90 for the ride into Seattle.  

However, the 2016 Sound Transit 3 Map “More Project Details” included the following;

Percent of non-motorized access.            20-35%

The Northgate Link debut ridership, 8000 of the Sound Transit’s 41,000-49,000 prediction, attests to the need for that “motorized access”. Providing access for the remaining 65-80% of Sound Transit’s claimed ridership would require adding between 154,700 and 225,600 parking stalls near transit stations or with access to routes to stations.  

However, Sound Transit has no plans to add any significant parking.  A November 2016 Seattle Times article reported the 51 existing park and ride facilities next to express bus or trains stations in Snohomish, King, and Pierce County were already 95% full with 19,448 cars.  

Yet, a May 5^th video showed their Sound Executive Council approving a System Access Policy Update that “manages parking demand” by “maximizing efficient use of available transit parking resources”. They neglected to even mention the  option of providing access with local bus routes.

The Executive Council not only ignored the ST 3 Map identifying the need for motorized access, they ignored the Northgate Link debut that demonstrated that need.  Spending billions on light rail extensions but nothing on parking for access. The result will be the Prop 1 and ST3 extension ridership will all be a small fraction of Sound Transit's claims.

The second public transit system requirement the Sound Transit Board seeming ignored was the need for capacity. 4-car light rail trains lack the capacity needed to attract the number of riders required to reduce peak hour multi-lane freeway congestion.  That riders added by extensions reduce access for Central Link riders.  

During peak commute, the 4-car trains limited capacity will result in riders added by the extensions ending access for Central Link riders before ever significantly reducing freeway congestion. During off-peak commute the operating costs with the longer routes will dwarf farebox revenue from added riders.

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board apparently doesn’t recognize that “managing existing parking” won’t provide the “motorized” access for the 65-80% of Prop 1 and ST3 extension riders.  That the only way to provide that access is with local bus routes from where commuters live to stations with transit routes into Seattle.

The Board apparently also doesn’t recognize that spending billions on the Prop 1 and ST3 extensions does nothing to increase the capacity of 4-car light rail trains.  They only increase operating costs and reduce access for Central Link commuters.  

The only way to increase transit capacity into Seattle is to implement BRT routes on I-5 and 1-90.  They can be scheduled to meet demand and routed along limited access freeway lanes for reliable travel times.  They can require fare payment on entry, minimizing the fare avoidance problem for the longer, more expensive routes.

If instead, Sound Transit Board’s decade of incompetence is allowed to continue, more of their $135B expansion plan will be spent on light rail extensions with a fraction of ridership projections.  Peak hour freeway congestion won’t be reduced and Central Link riders will lose access.  The costs during off-peak extension operation will dwarf fare box revenue added by riders  

It’s only a question of how long it will take and how many billions will be spent to recognize that realty.  With this Sound Transit Board and Seattle Times continuing to abet them it could take some time. Especially since Sound Transit has delayed the East Link debut that will demonstrate the folly of diverting half the trains across I-90 and using the trains to replace all I-90 bus routes.