The previous post, “Why ST Should Release the Service Delivery Performance Report Q4 2021”, opined the quarterly report was needed to provide Sound Transit’s Northgate Link debut results. Their Northgate Link website had predicted 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022. The Seattle Times Traffic Lab had heralded the debut as “Transit Transformed” with the Link’s 3 stations adding 42,000 to 49,000 riders.
The Q4 2021 report would have provided ridership added by each of the Link stations, the cost per rider, and the farebox recovery of operating costs. However, Sound Transit stopped releasing the reports after the Service Delivery Performance Report Q1 2021.
The debut results would also have “normally” been included in Sound Transit’s 2022 “Financial Plan and Proposed Budget” as part of “Link Performance Statistics”. Year 2021 Budget and Actual “Service Consumed”, “Total Boardings” and “Average Weekday Boardings” would have been reported for the year. “Financial Performance Measures” would have compared 2021 Link Budget and Actual “Cost/Boarding.” Yet Sound Transit’s 2022 budget didn’t include any “Link Performance Statistics” for 2021.
Lacking a 4th quarter service delivery report or a 2021 “Link Performance Statistics” in the 2022 budget, a chart, “Link Non-Fare Boardings, 2019 –2021" presented during Sound Transit Board’s March 24th meeting, was used to estimate total Northgate Link ridership. As the chart title implies, the chart was intended to provide numbers of those not paying fares. However, the chart also included monthly “Total Ridership” from Mar 2019 to Jan 2022.
The increase in monthly “Total Ridership” between Sep 2021, ~1.1 million and Jan 2022, ~1.3 million, was assumed to reflect the riders added by Northgate Link. Assuming “25-day months,” daily ridership increased from 44000 to 52000 or 8000 riders, a fraction of both Sound Transit and Traffic Lab predictions. The “likely” reason, the lack of commuters living near light rail stations and lack of parking with access to light rail stations or bus routes to stations.
None of the Prop 1 “spine” extensions will have large numbers of commuters living near light rail stations. Parking with access to light rail stations or to bus routes to stations has been limited by Sound Transit’s decade-long refusal to add significant parking in their entire service area. Instead, they’ve chosen to provide riders by using light rail to replace bus routes. But even those riders were limited by lack of parking near bus stops.
The result was the lack of access limited Northgate Link to 8000 riders. A clear indication Prop 1 spine ridership will also be limited to those with access to parking. Without added parking, spine Link riders won’t increase public transit. That using light rail to replace existing bus routes for riders reduces access for current Link riders, reduces transit capacity into Seattle, does nothing to increase public transit, and nothing to reduce freeway congestion: portending a Prop 1 ridership debacle.
The Northgate Link debut also portends a ridership cost debacle for the extensions. Again, ridership costs would normally be provided in the Service Delivery Performance Result Q4 2021 and 2021 Link Performance Statistics in 2022 budget. Instead, Sound Transit’s 2021 budget for light rail costs, $30.17 per vehicle revenue mile was used.
Each mile of extension adds 8 revenue vehicle miles for a 4-car train, adding $241.36 for a 4-car round trip. The 4.2-mile Northgate Link added $1,013.71 for each trip from UW Station to Northgate and back or $126,714 for Sound Transit’s 125 weekday Link schedule. Portending high operating costs for the 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension and beyond, the 5.3-mile extension to Federal Way and beyond, and the 14 miles across I-90 to Bellevue and beyond.
The $126,714 daily costs for the Northgate Link’s 8000 riders results in a $15.84 cost per boarder, a high price for a 4.2-mile ride. Those costs per boarder will be dwarfed by the Prop 1 extensions longer-route costs and access limited by lack of added parking.
The bottom line is earlier posts have opined 4-car light rail trains don’t have the public transit capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway congestion. That their limited capacity means any riders added by extensions will reduce access for current riders. This post opines the Northgate Link debut demonstrated ridership will be limited to those with access to parking near light rail stations or near bus stops on routes to stations. That without adding parking 4-car train operating costs over the longer Prop 1 routes will dwarf farebox revenue costs.
Portending a debacle in both ridership and operating costs for the Prop 1 extensions, yet ignored by Seattle Times Traffic Lab.
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