Northgate Link Results Should "Inform" Lynnwood Funding

(I emailed Sound Transit the following post prior to their March 10th System Expansion Committee meeting on increasing Lynnwood extension funding)

The previous post detailed the Northgate Link debut results were important because they had demonstrated Sound Transit’s inability to reduce congestion on freeways into Seattle.   Their Northgate Link website had projected 41,000 to 49,000 riders by 2022 and the Seattle Times Traffic Lab had called the debut “Transit Transformed” with 42,000 to 49,000 riders added by three stations. It’s been more than 5 months since the Link’s debut, yet Sound Transit has yet to release to the pubic the riders added by the three Link stations. None of the Board’s monthly agendas since the debut have included any mention of Northgate Link ridership and costs per rider. 

The concern in the previous post was the Link debut “likely” validated a 2004 PSRC study limiting capacity to 8880 riders per hour, far less than needed to reduce I-5 congestion. Riders added by Link reduced access for University Link riders. That Link ridership was a fraction of projections because of lack of access to light rail trains from Sound Transit’s decade-long failure to add parking near transit stations. Their decision to use light rail to replace bus routes reduced transit capacity into Seattle and little to reduce I-5 congestion. That the 4.2-mile extension to Northgate added $1013.72 costs for a round trip, $126,715 for Sound Transits 125 trip weekday schedule dwarfing any daily farebox revenue. 

The Lynnwood extension would seem to exacerbate the Northgate Link problems. It does nothing to increase light rail capacity into Seattle, yet the Sound Transit Lynnwood Link website claims 47,000 to 55,000 riders by 2026. Those with access to existing parking near light rail stations and to parking with access to bus routes to stations presumably already rode Northgate Link into Seattle.  Lynnwood operation will simply change where those routes are terminated. The only additional access for Lynnwood extension is the 500 stalls at both the Shoreline North and Shoreline South light rail stations.  

Thus, as with the “likely” Northgate results, the new riders added by Lynnwood Link will be a fraction of Sound Transit claims. Even more likely, the operating costs for the 4 station, 8.5-mile extension will add the costs of operating 4-car trains the 17-mile round trip from Northgate to Lynnwood and back. With Sound Transit’s 2021 budget of $30.17 per Revenue Vehicle Mile the Lynnwood Extension adds $2051.56 for each trip. If Sound Transit maintains the Northgate Link schedule for 125 weekday trips, operating the Lynnwood extension will add $256,445 to weekday Central Link costs, again dwarfing any fare revenue from riders added by Lynnwood extension.  

The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut should "inform" Sound Transit System Expansion Committee 4-car light rail trains don’t have the capacity to reduce multi-lane freeway peak hour congestion, that the Link lacked access for even its limited capacity, and cost too much to operate during off peak hours. The Lynnwood extension adds nothing to capacity, very little to increase access to transit, and triples daily operating costs. The Sound Transit System Expansion Committee should consider those realities before approving additional funding in their December 10th meeting.