The July 10th Traffic Lab article, "Rail boosters tell Sound Transit: Just say no to any project delays," epitomizes the Seattle Times slavish support for Sound Transit. They continue allowing Sound Transit to claim ST3 passage was for "voter approved projects," not for ST3 taxes that end in 2041.
The need for delays is the result of Sound Transit not able to borrow the funds projects needed with current schedule. The delay allows them to proceed with light rail expansion plans resulting in "Tax Based Debt" in 2041 with no ST3 taxes to make payments in 2042. The latest "Realignment" exacerbates the problem.
The "Rail Boosters" would be wise to await the results of the Northgate Link debut this October. It will be the first demonstration of whether light rail routed through Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) will reduce I-5 congestion. Will it attract the public transit ridership needed to reduce the number of vehicles needed to do so?
The first ridership requirement is the need for added public transit capacity. A 2004 PSRC High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT stations limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction. Extending light rail to Northgate does nothing to increase that capacity. Thus riders added by the Northgate Link will reduce access for University Link riders. Its debut will demonstrate whether it has the needed capacity.
The second requirement for increased public transit ridership is added access to the increased light rail capacity. Commuters need to be able to walk to, drive to, or be dropped off near light rail stations. Yet Sound Transit has refused to increase parking near stations or provide local bus routes to drop off commuters near stations. Instead choosing to use Northgate to replace bus routes into Seattle, reducing total public transit capacity into the city. The Northgate Link debut will demonstrate the likely result.
The bottom line is Sound Transit made a monumental blunder with its decade of failure to add thousands of parking spaces with access to more bus routes along limited access highway lanes into Seattle. They failed to recognize the DSTT limited light rail capacity to a fraction of what's needed to reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion.
They compounded that problem by refusing to add parking for access, choosing instead to replace bus routes, doing nothing to reduce roadway congestion. Those forced to transfer may reject the hassle for their commutes into and out of Seattle. The likely result will be ridership a fraction of Sound Transit's projected 41,000 to 49,000 ridership by 2022, and a huge increase in fare-box revenue shortfall.
The Northgate Link debut will finally demonstrate that to "Rail Boosters".
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