Inslee's "Dire Situation"?

The Seattle Times November 25th edition front-page article, "Inslee: State faces dire situation as virus cases skyrocket," portends an eminent disaster.  That 3,482 new cases and 35 new deaths "shattered previous records".  That, "hospitalizations for the new virus mean hospitals could have to delay treatment".

However if one bothered to look at the actual data on page A6 the 3482 cases and 35 deaths were preceded by 2 days with no cases and no deaths.  Virus hospitalizations were a tiny fraction of the total and total hospitalizations were 3000 below the 11,362, 80% capacity level.

It's unclear how many people were tested during the 3 days however the 28-day average positive test rates increased from 4% on November 1st to 12% on the 23rd.   Meanwhile, from November 17th, when directives began, the 14-day averages for positive cases increased from 1710 to 2215 per day and for deaths from 13 to 15 per day.  Those resulted in overall mortality rates declining from 0.76% to 0.67%.  However it's not enough to look at the overall rate.

The A6-page pie charts show those under 60 had 83% of the 2215 cases but only 10% of the 15 deaths.  Thus the mortality rate for Washingtonians under 60 was 1.5 deaths/1838 cases or 0.08%.  (For those under 20 the mortality rate was 0.)  However the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2018 mortality rates for those 15-64 was 1.69%.  Thus approximate 20 times the number of people under 60 who died from virus did so from over causes.

For those over 60 the 17% of cases but 90% of deaths the mortality rate was 13.5 deaths/376 deaths or 3.6%.  Again the NCHS mortality rate in 2018 for those from 65 to 84 was 6.26%, 74% higher.

By comparison an estimated 61,000 out of 45 million U.S. residents who had the flu in 2017-2918 died, a mortality rate of 0.135%.  Comparable numbers in 2018-2019 were 34,157 out of 35.5 million died, 0.095% mortality.  And this was with a vaccine.

Clearly COVID-19 is no more serious for those under 60 than the common flu.  Yet Inslee's directives fall far more heavily on the 80% of Washingtonians  under 60.  They are the ones who either work at or patronize the restaurants and bars, gyms, bowling lanes, movie theaters and gyms.  Limiting their access to religious service and forbidding weddings and funerals adds to their loss.  All of the limitations on schools, social gatherings, travel, and sporting events will have little impact on mortalities for the 80% of Washingtonians under 60.

Meanwhile Inslee's directives will have less impact on the 20% of Washingtonians over 60.  Many  will be retired,  less active socially, have pre-existing conditions, or in nursing homes, so its unlikely his directive will significantly reduce their mortality.  However, for the ones most impacted by the directives, the 80% under 60,  for the 1 person out of 1000 who dies from the virus, 19 will die from other causes.

The bottom line is Governor Inslee (and apparently the Times) refuses to recognize that COVID treatments have improved to where more than 999 out of 1000 of those under 60, and 96 out of 100 of those over 60 will survive the virus.  The entire state will pay a heavy price if he continues to do so.  On December 15th residents can make their own decision as to whether the reduction in cases or deaths per day was worth the lives disrupted if not devastated by the directives.