Sound Transit’s Perpetual Financial Black Hole.

A previous post detailed why Sound Transit’s Northgate operation in 2021 will demonstrate light rail routed through the DSTT won’t have the transit capacity needed to reduce congestion.  That Sound Transit compounded that problem by using the extensions to replace bus routes rather than add transit capacity.  That billions spent on Prop I extensions will reduce transit capacity into Seattle, increasing congestion for the vast majority of commuters.  

This post details why East Link operation will demonstrate the operating costs of the extensions will create a financial “black hole” extending well beyond 2041. In 2021, the 4.3-mile Northgate operation in 2021 will add 8.6 miles to the current Center Link 40-mile round trip.  The longer route will require more trains and increases operating costs.   Sound Transit’s 2019 budget included $24.82 per mile costs for light rail cars but “neglected” to include any costs for any of the transit modes in 2020 budget.

Assuming $25 per mile costs, adding 8.6 miles to each 40-mile round trip will increase the trip cost for each car from $1000 by $215 or $645 for 3-car trains.  Sound Transit currently schedules the trains every 6 minutes during much of the day with a total of 180 round trips each weekday. The 180 round trips will add $116,100 to daily operating costs for 3 car trains.

East Link operation in 2023 will increase both the number of daily round trips and the number of cars in each train.  The reason being East Link will have only half the Northgate trains or trains every 12 minutes.   

Safe operation requires a minimum of 4-minute headways between trains.  Thus Northgate headways can safely be reduced from 6 to 4 minutes, allowing East Link trains every 8 minutes.  During off-peak operation Northgate train every 5 minutes can provide 10-minute headways for East Link and Central Link south trains.  Assuming 10 hours of 4-minute and 12 hours of 5-minute headways, East Link operation will increase Northgate train routes from 180 per day to 300. 

However, maximizing capacity with 8-minute headways for both East Link and Central Link trains requires adding a 4^th car.   Adding the 4^th car will increase costs from $645 to $860 per trip.  East Link operation will increase Northgate daily operation from 180 3-car to 300 4-car trains; increasing daily operating cost from $116,100 to $258,000. 

The 8.5-mile Lynnwood extension will add 17 miles to the 48.6-mile trip or $1700 per trip along with the need for more trains.  In 2024 the 300 daily Lynnwood round trips will add $510,000 to the weekday operating costs.  The 5.3-mile Federal Way extension will add $1060 to Central Link south round trip costs.  When operation begins in 2024 the 150 routes will add $159,000 daily.

It’s not clear how many riders the extensions will add. Sound Transit claims for 41,000 to 49,000 for Northgate, 47,000 to 57,000 for Lynnwood and 38,000 to 58,000 for Federal Way. However, Sound Transit makes no attempt to add parking or local bus routes for access so those numbers dwarf ridership extensions can attract by replacing bus routes. 

Whatever riders the $258,000 per day Northgate, the $510,000 Lynnwood, and $159,000 Federal Way extensions operating costs per day will result in current Central Link riders losing access to former bus riders.   During peak commute the loss could be especially egregious since other posts have detailed a 2004 PSRC study, funded by Sound Transit, concluded the DSTT limited light rail capacity to 8880 riders per hour in each direction.

The operating costs for the extensions to Northgate, Lynnwood, and Federal Way are precursors for Sound Transits light rail spine.  Sound Transits 2019 budget portends the future operating cost problem with ST3 funding ending in 2041, but expenditures “unlikely” to end. 

The only way to avoid a perpetual operating cost deficit is to avoid extending light rail.  Route existing I-5 bus routes into Seattle, avoiding the capacity loss for University Link riders.  Add bus routes into Seattle to match transit capacity with demand, avoiding the lack of light rail capacity during peak commute and high costs during off-peak operation.  Use light rail funds to add parking and local bus routes to stations for increased access.  Lynnwood and Federal Way funds could expedite Ballard-to-West Seattle routes with high ridership low operating costs as well as the more bus routes. 

Sound Transit has already wasted billions constructing light rail extensions beyond UW station and across I-90 Bridge that increase peak commute congestion.  It’s time they acknowledge the billions they’ll spend on light rail spine will not only increase congestion their operating costs will create a perpetual financial back hole.