More Traffic Lab Incompetence With I-405

Recent posts have detailed how Sound Transit has spent a decade spending billions on light rail extensions that don’t increase transit capacity on I-5 or I-90 corridors, but nothing on added parking and bus service that would.   That prior to the ST3 vote they lied about what it would cost and how many riders it would add. That the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, whose purported objective is to “dig into problems” continues to ignore those realities, allowing Sound Transit to continue to spend years and billions of ST3 funds on a light rail spine that does nothing to reduce congestion. 

Two recent articles exemplify the Traffic Lab also doesn't seem to recognize Sound Transit or WSDOT failure to address I-405 problems. The first, a Sept 9^th headlined “New bus station in Kirkland will be a $300 million gamble” details Sound Transit plans to provide Kirkland commuters access to express bus service into Bellevue.   For years Kirkland residents only access to transit has been between a T/C in the city and a South Kirkland P&R near SR 520.  All of the buses serving the route go across SR520 to University or into Seattle.  Thus one wonders about Sound Transit’s claim Kirkland commuters “need the 85th St station for people to catch a bus in the 5- mile gap between Totem Lake and downtown Bellevue”.

The Sound Transit 3 map for funding I-405 BRT shows the 2 other new stations will have parking, as do all the existing stations except for the Bellevue T/C.    The P&R lots near existing bus stations along I-405 have been full for years.   While ST3 adds 400 stalls to the Totem/Kingsgate station, it’s not clear how many stalls will be added to the 2 new stations near Renton.   Meanwhile, for years Sound Transit bus service between Lynnwood and Bellevue has been limited to eleven 535 bus routes that begin in  Lynnwood at 3:18 am and end at 9:18 am.  The nearly 1000 commuters who, per Sound Transit quarterly ridership reports, ride the 11 buses during the morning hours "suggests" more buses would be welcome.

Rather than add parking or bus service currently needed along the route Sound Transit has decided that by 2024, they'll spend $300 million on a three-tiered interchange with a transit station that doesn’t have any parking. For Traffic Lab to call it a “gamble” doesn’t do justice to the fact Sound Transit, for a fraction of the $300 million, could begin adding thousands of parking spaces and additional bus routes to existing lots along I-405 corridor that will increase transit capacity rather than wait 6 years for a station that won’t.   Kirkland commuters deserve additional parking in South Kirkland with bus service to Bellevue now rather than an I-405 station with no access in 2024.

The second Traffic Lab article “Can $3B finally fix I-405 gridlock” exemplifies their failure to recognize the WSDOT plans to implement 2 HOT lanes between Lynnwood and Renton will either require a huge increase in tolls or fail to achieve 45 mph average on HOT lanes.  Neither the Traffic Lab nor WSDOT recognize HOT lanes are normally based on the premise fares can be set to limit the number of vehicles to what’s required to achieve the desired HOT velocity; e.g. achieving 45 mph requires limiting traffic to 2000 vehicle per hour (vpr).   HOT avoids the problem HOV lanes have when the number of 2 person carpools exceeds the 2000 vph limit needed to average 45 mph.

Instead, the WSDOT apparently bases their plans for 2 HOT lanes on their project director’s “unique” claim, “toll lanes often carry 35 percent more cars per hour than general lanes. That’s because rising prices prevent toll lanes from being clogged.”  The article opines, “Express toll lanes flow better” while “GP lanes will be clogged from the start”. 

They ignore the fact the 2 HOT lanes between Bothell and Bellevue have failed to meet the 45 mph for 90% of the peak commute time, despite the fact they assume peak commute begins at 5:00 am.  Only about 50% of current HOT commuters likely average the 45 mph.  The problem being, limiting GP to only 3 lanes between Bothell and Bellevue increases congestion to the point where more drivers are willing to pay the current HOT tolls than the 2 HOT lanes can accommodate and still achieve the 45 mph average. 

WSDOT plans to limit GP traffic to only 2 lanes on the rest of the route will surely exacerbate the problem there.  Again, the increased GP lane congestion with 2 HOT lanes will require WSDOT to either dramatically increase the tolls or allow HOT lanes to fail to achieve the 45 mph.  Future growth will increase GP lane congestion and either force higher tolls or slower HOT lane velocities. 

The WSDOT could minimize HOT fees and reduce GP lane congestion by limiting HOT to one lane, with fees set to what’s required to limit number of vehicles to achieve 45 mph.  The added lane would reduce congestion for GP vehicles, despite WSDOT claims to the contrary, potentially reducing HOT fees needed to restrict usage. 

The single HOT lane’s 45 mph would assure reliable bus schedules, satisfying the articles concern, “Sound Transit needs the state to ensure its toll lanes flow at 45 mph”.  (Typical of Sound Transit CEO Rogoff, he claims BRT along the route will attract 18,000 riders despite refusing to add any significant parking for access.)  The WSDOT is already making plans for spending HOV revenue from the two HOT lanes, “suggesting” they're anticipating the revenue from the two HOT lanes.    

Clearly, the answer to the Traffic Lab question "Can $3B finally fix I-405 Gridlock?" is an emphatic No!  The two recent Traffic Lab articles concerning I-405 exemplify years of failure to dig into and expose Sound Transit's and WSDOT's incompetent response to the area’s transportation problems.