Dear Chinatown, International District Preservation & Development Authority”

The February 23^rd Sound Transit Board meeting exemplifies a decade-long myth that a second tunnel is needed to reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion into and out of Seattle.  The meeting began with “Public Comment” from multiple speakers objecting to locations for the proposed light rail stations near CID and Westlake.  

They were followed by Sound Transit presenting a “Review of Community Feedback” included charts detailing attempts to garner support, “Engagement activities” and “Further studies corridor-wide engagement” 7/28/22-2/17/23.  They included 12 open houses, 100+ community briefings, 6 fairs, 8 posts, 200 businesses engaged though door-to-door outreach, and 180 residents engaged through in-language forums”. 

 

The response to the six months of “corridor-wide engagement” during those System Expansion and Sound Transit Board meetings has been nearly unanimous "Public Comment" opposing  the CID plan.  The fact so many objected to Sound Transit proposal resulted in a Seattle Times February 24^th editorial “Don’t skip Chinatown International District in light rail extension”.  It claimed the following:

 

“…a broad coalition of community members has repeatedly called for a light rail station in the neighborhood that makes our community and the region more connected, accessible, and vibrant”

 

The reason being:

 

“Moving a station outside the CID introduces more barriers for riders, especially those who need to transfer lines.  If transfers and connections are challenging, riders will be discouraged from using the system.”

 

While one can debate the merits of the CID station, neither Sound Transit nor the Seattle Times apparently recognize most of the objections were "likely" due to the devastating effect the years of disruption and devastation required to implement the station in their area.  

 

This post urges the Chinatown International District Preservation & Development Authority use their “authority” to “preserve” Chinatown.  Require Sound Transit use the existing tunnel and current stations at CID and Westlake for light rail egress and access.  That East Link be terminated at CID and Ballard extension at Westlake to facilitate doing so.

 

The bottom line is the lack of commuter access to light rail stations throughout Sound Transit service area obviates the need for a second tunnel. A  November 1st 2016 Seattle Times article reported the 19,488 existing parking stalls with access to transit in the three-county area were already "at least 95% full".  Ridership on both Ballard and West Seattle extensions will be limited by the number of stations within walking distance of commuters. (Sound Transit refuses to release Northgate Link results showing lack of access limited ridership to a fraction of the 41,000-49,000 predicted)l

Again, terminating Ballard and East Link at existing stations avoids the disruptions associated with constructing new stations and the need to spend billions and years disrupting whatever route is selected.  Both Ballard and East Link extensions could be scheduled to meet local demand.  Line 1 Link south wouldn’t loose half the capacity when East Link debuts to when second tunnel is completed.   

 

The Seattle Times needs to explain why a second CID station is needed to “make our community and the region more connected, accessible, and vibrant”.  Especially since it requires spending billions and years of delay and disruption associated with a second tunnel.  This post attempts to convince Chinatown International District Preservation and Development Authority to advocate for eliminating the second tunnel.

 

Seattle Doesn't Need A 2nd Tunnel?

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Will a new light-rail station land in Pioneer Square” typifies the paper’s failure to “dig into” the issues.  For example, does Sound Transit really need to build a second downtown transit tunnel to anchor a $15 billion expansion from Ballard to West Seattle?  Do the benefits of the tunnel offset the disruption of locating a second District/Chinatown station near existing light-rail station.

 

The Sound Transit 3 map voters approved in 2016 costed the Ballard-to- Downtown Seattle Light rail as $2,383-$2,550 (2014 $M) and Downtown Seattle to West Seattle Light Rail as $1,431-$1,531 (2014 $M), less than a third of the current $15B.  This would seem to raise questions as to why the increase in cost and whether Sound Transit has the authority to spend so much more than what they promised prior to 2016 vote.

 

Even more important is why the need for a second tunnel and station.  Sound Transit could terminate the Ballard extension at current Westlake station.  Riders that need to go beyond Westlake can transfer to Line 1 Link.  Sound Transit could also terminate East Link at existing International District/Chinatown station.  Again, those wishing to go further can transfer to Line 1 Link into Seattle or south to SeaTac.   The existing tunnel can surely accommodate Line 1 Link riders going beyond Westlake and Chinatown Station as well as those needing to transfer.

 

Eliminating the tunnel saves billions, avoids the need for a second station, 5 or 6 years of disruption along whatever route is selected, and shaves those years from the current 2037 debut.  Again, if the Traffic Lab “digs into” the issue it would likely conclude Seattle doesn't need a 2^nd tunnel and new Chinatown station.  

Sound Transit’s Operating Cost Debacle

The previous post detailed why Sound Transit Boards Jan 26^th plans for operating the Lynnwood expansion indicated they’d ignored Northgate Link’s failure to attract more than a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 riders they predicted. This post details what it currently costs Sound Transit to provide transit for those riders and what it will cost for their plans to operate the Lynnwood Link.   

Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs at ~$30 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, every extension mile adds $240 to the round-trip operating cost.  The 4.2-mile Northgate extension added ~$1000 to the round trip from and to Westlake Station. The current weekday schedule for headways between trains, 8-minute peak, 10-minute off peak and 15-minute late night requires 126 trips.  Thus, the Northgate extensions weekday operation currently add $126,000 to daily operating costs.

Sound Transit no longer provides quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports that would have included riders added by each of the three Northgate Link stations.   Assuming all the increase in ridership during the first three months after the debut were added by the three stations, ~8000 daily, gives $15.75 per rider.  The Northgate ridership did little to reduce congestion since most of the riders were commuters who previously rode bus routes into Seattle.

The Lynnwood Link’s 8.5-mile extension adds ~$2000 to the trip cost from Westlake and back.  The Jan 26th Board meeting approved a plan with Chinatown/ID to Lynnwood headways of 4-min. peak and 5-min. off-peak, essentially doubling the current Northgate trips per day. The combination of the longer routes and more frequent service resulted in the Lynnwood extension adding ~$500,000 to daily operating costs.

Typical of Sound Transit Board, no one asked how many additional commuters they expected with the extension.  Many of those along the route with access to transit were already riding on bus routes the Northgate Link replaced.  Replacing additional buses further reduces transit capacity into Seattle and doesn’t reduce I-5 congestion. The additional former bus riders also reduces access for current Line 1 Link riders.

The bottom line is, Sound Transit recently hired a new Chief Financial Official (CFO).  There is little the CFO can do about the $2.77B that will be spent extending light rail to Lynnwood.  However, the entire Sound Transit service area will benefit if he vetoes the Board’s Jan 26^th plan that requires spending $500,000 daily on operating costs and questions the financial viability of all the “voter approved” light rail spine extensions.

Sound Transit Ignores Northgate Link Debacle

Previous posts on this blog have opined the legislature’s Joint Transit Committee (JTC) should require an outside audit of Sound Transit plans for 522 Stride S3 though Lake Forest Park, the need for a 2^nd tunnel under Seattle, and a new CID station.  That Bellevue should take legal action to keep Sound Transit from implementing an East Link Starter Line.  That the east side and south Seattle should take legal action to force Sound Transit to terminate Line 2 Link at CID. 

 

This post opines the the January 26^th Sound Transit Board plan for operating the Lynnwood extension demonstrate they don’t’ recognize public transit’s goal should be to provide transit for those who can’t drive or chose not to drive and to reduce congestion for those that do drive.  Instead, Sound Transit has taken the position their goal is to implement “voter approved” extensions.  

 

The Board exemplified that failure by choosing to ignore the results of the first “voter approved” extensions, the October 2021 Northgate Link debut. Sound Transit has refused to release quarterly Service Delivery Performance Reports showing ridership added by the three link stations.  

 

However, the best indication is that ridership was a fraction of the 41,000-49,000 they’d predicted.  That using the Link to replace bus routes reduced transit capacity into Seattle, did little to reduce HOV traffic, nothing to reduce GP lane congestion, and added $1000 to operating cost for the round trip to and from Westlake station.

 

The January 26th meeting Sound Transit clearly ignored those results when they approved the Lynnwood extension operating plan. The “voter approved” 8.5-mile extension, costs $2.7B, and exacerbates all the Northgate Link problems. 

 

It doesn’t increase the capacity of the Line 1 Link, yet they use it to replace additional bus routes into Seattle, further reducing transit capacity into the city, little to reduce HOV congestion and nothing for GP lanes. The additional transferees further reduce access for other Line 1 Link commuters.  The 8.5-mile adds $2000 to the Northgate Link for the trip cost, to and from Westlake Station. 

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has refused to release Service Provided Performance results riders for the three Northgate Link stations.  The Jan 26^th Sound Transit Board decisions indicate they’ve ignored that data. The result will be a Lynnwood Link debut that dwarfs the Northgate Link debacle.  

It's unfortunate it’s going to take until summer/fall 2024 to demonstrate the result.  Hundreds of additional millions will be spent on "voter approved" light rail spine extensions that add to the problem rather than on Ballard and West Seattle extensions that would increase transit capacity and ridership into Seattle.

South End and East Side Cities Should Sue Sound Transit to Terminate Line 2 Link at CID.

The previous post urged Bellevue sue Sound Transit to prevent them from implementing an East Link Starter Line.  This post urges South End and East Side cities to take legal action to force Sound Transit terminate the East Link extension at the Chinatown/ID light rail station (CID).  The action is needed to prevent the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee from implementing plans to limit Line 1 Link from Angle Lake and Line 2 Link from Redmond to 8-minute headways for routes into Seattle during peak operation.  

 

It's never been clear why Sound Transit wanted to route both Line 1 and Line 2 Links from CID to Lynnwood.  Safe operation through Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) requires 4 minutes between trains (Per PSRC).  Limiting Line 1 and Line 2 Links to 4 car trains every 8 minutes limits light rail to 30 cars per hour. Sound Transit’s 74-seat light rail cars are rated as able to accommodate 148 riders. 

 

Thus, both transit Lines can only accommodate 4440 riders per hour.  A fraction of the capacity needed for Line 1 and Line 2 Links to reduce peak-hour I-5 and I-90 congestion into Seattle.  Sound Transit’s East Link website had predicted 50,000 daily riders.  (Their 2008 East Link DEIS had predicted 18,000 to 24,000 people per hour.)

 

The way to increase capacity is to terminate Line 2 Link at CID and allow Line 1 Link trains to operate every 4 minutes between Angel Lake and Lynnwood with capacity up to 8880 riders per hour. (It currently has 8 minutes between trains during peak operation.)  Line 2 Link could also have the 8880 riders-per-hour capacity across I-90 Bridge. Terminating the Line 2 Link at CID would also eliminate potential problems with safely merging on their returns from the two different routes.

 

Operating schedules including number of cars in each train and frequency of routes could be adjusted to meet both peak and off-peak demand.  A potentially significant operating cost savings for Line 2 Link since each car’s ~$30 per-mile light rail car adds $840 to 14-mile round trip.  Terminating Line 2 Link at CID would allow commuters to transfer to Line 1 Link for the route through DSTT to UW or beyond.  It would also make the return much easier for east side riders to access to Line 2 Link commuters at the CID station.

 

The bottom line is the current Line 1 Link schedule for 8 minutes between trains (and 4440 riders per hour) “suggests” that the lack of access to the Northgate extension has limited ridership to a fraction of Sound Transits 41,000 to 49,000 website prediction.  (Sound Transit refuses to release the ridership added by the three Link stations). The lack of access to the Lynnwood extension will likely limit ridership added to a similar fraction of the 37,000 to 57,000 predictions. Terminating Line 2 Link at CID would end sending un-needed and very expensive capacity for those riders. 

 

The need to redo light rail track attachments has delayed the June 30^th East Link debut demonstrating the problems with routing both Lines through DSTT.  South Seattle and east side cities should take legal action to “persuade” Sound Transit to use the delay to terminate Line 2 Link at CID.  It's something a competent Seattle Times Traffic Lab would do but hasn't.

Bellevue Should Sue Sound Transit

The video of the Sound Transit Board January 26^th meeting exemplifies the need for a transit performance audit.  This post details why the Bellevue City Council should take legal action to mitigate the effects of Sound Transit incompetence on eastside.

 They should sue to prevent Sound Transit from implementing the East Link Starter Line between Redmond Technology Center (RTC) and South Bellevue P&R.  There currently is a B Line Rapid Ride Route from Redmond to Bellevue. Metro describes it as:

 

Metro's all new RapidRide B Line brings a new world of rapid transit to the Eastside. This is Metro's fastest and easiest way to travel, with service so frequent you don't even need a schedule.

The route provides commuters within walking distance of 11 stops with access to transit between RTC and Bellevue TC.  Access to the Starter Line would be limited to 4 stops with parking available at 300 stalls at 130^th station.  The schedule currently calls for “10-min all day,” though its not clear what “all day” means.  

 

The Starter Line between Bellevue T/C and South Bellevue P&R includes a stop at East Main that lacks parking for access.  Starter Line riders would transfer to and from ST550 at the P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle.  ST550 is currently routed along 110^th Ave to Bellevue T/C through downtown Bellevue with access at 6 stops along route to P&R.  During peak commute the buses run every 5 minutes. 

 

A Sound Transit CEO Timms Dec 8^th blog post had stipulated that ST550 would continue along with Starter Line to and from P&R.  However, the January 26^thpresentation included the following:

 

Examining opportunities to partially restructure ST Express Bus service to complement Starter Line

 

Clearly an attempt to terminate ST550 at South Bellevue.  The result being the only commuters with access to transit from Bellevue would be those within walking distance of Bellevue T/C and East Main Station.  That all commuters would be forced to transfer from ST550 to Starter Line at South Bellevue for the ride into Bellevue.

The bottom line is the Starter Line needlessly duplicates existing transit service with far better access between RTC and South Bellevue P&R. The Bellevue City Council should take legal action to prevent Sound Transit from implementing a Starter Line that terminates RapidRide B Line at RTC, ST550 at South Bellevue P&R, and forcers riders to transfer from buses to light rail for the trip into Bellevue.

 

 

 

More Reasons for JTC ST Audit

The previous post urged the Washington legislature’s Joint Transportation Committee (JTC) require an audit of Sound Transit Board plans for reducing I-5 and I-90 congestion into and out of Seattle.  This post details why anyone with a modicum of transit system competence who viewed the video of the Boards System Expansion Committee’s January 12th meeting would recognize they need an outside audit.

The meeting video included several Lake Forest Park residents raising concerns with Sound Transit’s plans for a bus access to transit (BAT) lane for the 1.2-mile portion of SR522 Stride S3 Line through their residential area..   They thought the approximate 2 minute transit time reduction didn’t justify spending more than $200M (a 2021 estimate) that will change forever the Lake Forest Park persona.   

 

Sound Transit Staff later presented a chart showing the Stride S3 Line would reduce PM peak Shoreline to Bothell from 54 minutes to 39 minutes in 2042.  Other charts showed the plan  included removing more than 400 trees and confiscating portions of more than 20 private properties.  They estimated the Lake Forest Park BAT segment would save an average of 2.3 minutes on the Shoreline to Bothell PM peak weekday compute.  The System Expansion Committee unanimously approved Sound Transit proceeding.  

 

An outside auditor would “likely” conclude that the costs of adding the Lake Forest Park BAT far exceeds the “benefits” of not adding 2.3  minutes to 39 minute transit travel time from Shoreline or the far longer total travel time from Seattle. Especially since the time savings would be less in 2027 when the Stride S3 Line began.

Others expressed concern over the way Sound Transit was proceeding with plans for a tunnel under Seattle and a light rail station in Chinatown. They asked for additional time and to consider other options. The expansion committee didn't respond. An outside auditor would likely suggest the "option" of terminating the Ballard Link at Westlake and avoid the cost of a second tunnel and the need for light rail station at Chinatown.

The video included the expansion committee approving Motions No M2023-03 requiring Bellevue to share in a firefight access door in the Bellevue downtown tunnel and M2023-04 requiring Bellevue, Mercer Island, and Redmond to pay for emergency responder training needed for the startup of the East Link and Downtown Redmond Link Extensions.  An outside audit would likely ask why the 3-block long Bellevue Tunnel needs a fire access door since the 4-mile Northgate Tunnel doesn’t.  Also, why there’s been no mention of Seattle being asked to fund emergency responder training.

 

The video also exposed Sound Transit’s latest response to the need to delay East Link to redo light rail track attachments. That without access to Operation Maintenance Facility (OMF) East Sound Transit needed to limit Lynnwood Link trains to 8-minute headways.   That when East Link begins operation the Lynnwood Link would have 4-minute headways during peak operation, but both Link 1 Line and Link 2 Line will both have 8-minute headways. 

 An audit would "likely" conclude 4-car light rail trains every 8 minutes on either Line won't have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway capacity into Seattle.  Especially since they intend to use both Lines to replace bus routes.  That Sound Transit should use the East Link delay to enable terminating the route at the Chinatown Station that would allow both Link Line 1 and East Link to have 4-minute headways.

Instead the video showed the System Expansion Committee approving spending up to $6M to maintain the option to use the delay to spend up to $6 million  to implement a Starter Line between Redmond Technology Center and South Bellevue Park and Ride.  The final decision to authorize opening passenger service on East Link Starter Line was anticipated in October 2023.  That revenue service would start in Q2/2024 .

 

Again, none of the committee members asked questions as to how many riders they expected with the Starter Line.  An auditor would note  that those commuting from Redmond to Bellevue had better access with existing Rapid Ride Route.   That ST550 in Bellevue  had better access than Starter Line and avoided the need to transfer at South Bellevue P&R.  Also that very few commuters returning from Seattle will choose to transfer to Starter Line for the route into Bellevue.

The bottom line is Sound Transit has managed to avoid disclosing Northgate Link ridership was a fraction of the 42,000-49000 riders projected. However, when East Link debuts the problems will be so obvious that no Sound Transit "disclosure" will be needed. Thus, the debut delay from June 2023 to 2025 summer allows Sound Transit to spend additional billions on fatally flawed "voter approved" extensions. 

The Legislatures JTC should require a Sound Transit audit that could result in  expediting the West Seattle and Ballard extensions, debunk the need for a BAT lane in Lake Forest Park,  a second tunnel under Seattle, and the need for a Chinatown Station.  That Sound Transit should  terminate East Link at Chinatown, stop the folly of the East Link Starter Line,  and more to mitigate Sound Transits Expansion Committee incompetence.

The JTC constituents and the entire Sound Transit service area surely deserve it.