Seattle Doesn't Need A 2nd Tunnel?

The Seattle Times Traffic Lab article “Will a new light-rail station land in Pioneer Square” typifies the paper’s failure to “dig into” the issues.  For example, does Sound Transit really need to build a second downtown transit tunnel to anchor a $15 billion expansion from Ballard to West Seattle?  Do the benefits of the tunnel offset the disruption of locating a second District/Chinatown station near existing light-rail station.

 

The Sound Transit 3 map voters approved in 2016 costed the Ballard-to- Downtown Seattle Light rail as $2,383-$2,550 (2014 $M) and Downtown Seattle to West Seattle Light Rail as $1,431-$1,531 (2014 $M), less than a third of the current $15B.  This would seem to raise questions as to why the increase in cost and whether Sound Transit has the authority to spend so much more than what they promised prior to 2016 vote.

 

Even more important is why the need for a second tunnel and station.  Sound Transit could terminate the Ballard extension at current Westlake station.  Riders that need to go beyond Westlake can transfer to Line 1 Link.  Sound Transit could also terminate East Link at existing International District/Chinatown station.  Again, those wishing to go further can transfer to Line 1 Link into Seattle or south to SeaTac.   The existing tunnel can surely accommodate Line 1 Link riders going beyond Westlake and Chinatown Station as well as those needing to transfer.

 

Eliminating the tunnel saves billions, avoids the need for a second station, 5 or 6 years of disruption along whatever route is selected, and shaves those years from the current 2037 debut.  Again, if the Traffic Lab “digs into” the issue it would likely conclude Seattle doesn't need a 2^nd tunnel and new Chinatown station.  

Sound Transit’s Operating Cost Debacle

The previous post detailed why Sound Transit Boards Jan 26^th plans for operating the Lynnwood expansion indicated they’d ignored Northgate Link’s failure to attract more than a fraction of the 41,000 to 49,000 riders they predicted. This post details what it currently costs Sound Transit to provide transit for those riders and what it will cost for their plans to operate the Lynnwood Link.   

Sound Transit budgets light rail car costs at ~$30 per revenue vehicle mile.  Thus, every extension mile adds $240 to the round-trip operating cost.  The 4.2-mile Northgate extension added ~$1000 to the round trip from and to Westlake Station. The current weekday schedule for headways between trains, 8-minute peak, 10-minute off peak and 15-minute late night requires 126 trips.  Thus, the Northgate extensions weekday operation currently add $126,000 to daily operating costs.

Sound Transit no longer provides quarterly Service Provided Performance Reports that would have included riders added by each of the three Northgate Link stations.   Assuming all the increase in ridership during the first three months after the debut were added by the three stations, ~8000 daily, gives $15.75 per rider.  The Northgate ridership did little to reduce congestion since most of the riders were commuters who previously rode bus routes into Seattle.

The Lynnwood Link’s 8.5-mile extension adds ~$2000 to the trip cost from Westlake and back.  The Jan 26th Board meeting approved a plan with Chinatown/ID to Lynnwood headways of 4-min. peak and 5-min. off-peak, essentially doubling the current Northgate trips per day. The combination of the longer routes and more frequent service resulted in the Lynnwood extension adding ~$500,000 to daily operating costs.

Typical of Sound Transit Board, no one asked how many additional commuters they expected with the extension.  Many of those along the route with access to transit were already riding on bus routes the Northgate Link replaced.  Replacing additional buses further reduces transit capacity into Seattle and doesn’t reduce I-5 congestion. The additional former bus riders also reduces access for current Line 1 Link riders.

The bottom line is, Sound Transit recently hired a new Chief Financial Official (CFO).  There is little the CFO can do about the $2.77B that will be spent extending light rail to Lynnwood.  However, the entire Sound Transit service area will benefit if he vetoes the Board’s Jan 26^th plan that requires spending $500,000 daily on operating costs and questions the financial viability of all the “voter approved” light rail spine extensions.

Sound Transit Ignores Northgate Link Debacle

Previous posts on this blog have opined the legislature’s Joint Transit Committee (JTC) should require an outside audit of Sound Transit plans for 522 Stride S3 though Lake Forest Park, the need for a 2^nd tunnel under Seattle, and a new CID station.  That Bellevue should take legal action to keep Sound Transit from implementing an East Link Starter Line.  That the east side and south Seattle should take legal action to force Sound Transit to terminate Line 2 Link at CID. 

 

This post opines the the January 26^th Sound Transit Board plan for operating the Lynnwood extension demonstrate they don’t’ recognize public transit’s goal should be to provide transit for those who can’t drive or chose not to drive and to reduce congestion for those that do drive.  Instead, Sound Transit has taken the position their goal is to implement “voter approved” extensions.  

 

The Board exemplified that failure by choosing to ignore the results of the first “voter approved” extensions, the October 2021 Northgate Link debut. Sound Transit has refused to release quarterly Service Delivery Performance Reports showing ridership added by the three link stations.  

 

However, the best indication is that ridership was a fraction of the 41,000-49,000 they’d predicted.  That using the Link to replace bus routes reduced transit capacity into Seattle, did little to reduce HOV traffic, nothing to reduce GP lane congestion, and added $1000 to operating cost for the round trip to and from Westlake station.

 

The January 26th meeting Sound Transit clearly ignored those results when they approved the Lynnwood extension operating plan. The “voter approved” 8.5-mile extension, costs $2.7B, and exacerbates all the Northgate Link problems. 

 

It doesn’t increase the capacity of the Line 1 Link, yet they use it to replace additional bus routes into Seattle, further reducing transit capacity into the city, little to reduce HOV congestion and nothing for GP lanes. The additional transferees further reduce access for other Line 1 Link commuters.  The 8.5-mile adds $2000 to the Northgate Link for the trip cost, to and from Westlake Station. 

 

The bottom line is Sound Transit has refused to release Service Provided Performance results riders for the three Northgate Link stations.  The Jan 26^th Sound Transit Board decisions indicate they’ve ignored that data. The result will be a Lynnwood Link debut that dwarfs the Northgate Link debacle.  

It's unfortunate it’s going to take until summer/fall 2024 to demonstrate the result.  Hundreds of additional millions will be spent on "voter approved" light rail spine extensions that add to the problem rather than on Ballard and West Seattle extensions that would increase transit capacity and ridership into Seattle.

South End and East Side Cities Should Sue Sound Transit to Terminate Line 2 Link at CID.

The previous post urged Bellevue sue Sound Transit to prevent them from implementing an East Link Starter Line.  This post urges South End and East Side cities to take legal action to force Sound Transit terminate the East Link extension at the Chinatown/ID light rail station (CID).  The action is needed to prevent the Sound Transit System Expansion Committee from implementing plans to limit Line 1 Link from Angle Lake and Line 2 Link from Redmond to 8-minute headways for routes into Seattle during peak operation.  

 

It's never been clear why Sound Transit wanted to route both Line 1 and Line 2 Links from CID to Lynnwood.  Safe operation through Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) requires 4 minutes between trains (Per PSRC).  Limiting Line 1 and Line 2 Links to 4 car trains every 8 minutes limits light rail to 30 cars per hour. Sound Transit’s 74-seat light rail cars are rated as able to accommodate 148 riders. 

 

Thus, both transit Lines can only accommodate 4440 riders per hour.  A fraction of the capacity needed for Line 1 and Line 2 Links to reduce peak-hour I-5 and I-90 congestion into Seattle.  Sound Transit’s East Link website had predicted 50,000 daily riders.  (Their 2008 East Link DEIS had predicted 18,000 to 24,000 people per hour.)

 

The way to increase capacity is to terminate Line 2 Link at CID and allow Line 1 Link trains to operate every 4 minutes between Angel Lake and Lynnwood with capacity up to 8880 riders per hour. (It currently has 8 minutes between trains during peak operation.)  Line 2 Link could also have the 8880 riders-per-hour capacity across I-90 Bridge. Terminating the Line 2 Link at CID would also eliminate potential problems with safely merging on their returns from the two different routes.

 

Operating schedules including number of cars in each train and frequency of routes could be adjusted to meet both peak and off-peak demand.  A potentially significant operating cost savings for Line 2 Link since each car’s ~$30 per-mile light rail car adds $840 to 14-mile round trip.  Terminating Line 2 Link at CID would allow commuters to transfer to Line 1 Link for the route through DSTT to UW or beyond.  It would also make the return much easier for east side riders to access to Line 2 Link commuters at the CID station.

 

The bottom line is the current Line 1 Link schedule for 8 minutes between trains (and 4440 riders per hour) “suggests” that the lack of access to the Northgate extension has limited ridership to a fraction of Sound Transits 41,000 to 49,000 website prediction.  (Sound Transit refuses to release the ridership added by the three Link stations). The lack of access to the Lynnwood extension will likely limit ridership added to a similar fraction of the 37,000 to 57,000 predictions. Terminating Line 2 Link at CID would end sending un-needed and very expensive capacity for those riders. 

 

The need to redo light rail track attachments has delayed the June 30^th East Link debut demonstrating the problems with routing both Lines through DSTT.  South Seattle and east side cities should take legal action to “persuade” Sound Transit to use the delay to terminate Line 2 Link at CID.  It's something a competent Seattle Times Traffic Lab would do but hasn't.

Bellevue Should Sue Sound Transit

The video of the Sound Transit Board January 26^th meeting exemplifies the need for a transit performance audit.  This post details why the Bellevue City Council should take legal action to mitigate the effects of Sound Transit incompetence on eastside.

 They should sue to prevent Sound Transit from implementing the East Link Starter Line between Redmond Technology Center (RTC) and South Bellevue P&R.  There currently is a B Line Rapid Ride Route from Redmond to Bellevue. Metro describes it as:

 

Metro's all new RapidRide B Line brings a new world of rapid transit to the Eastside. This is Metro's fastest and easiest way to travel, with service so frequent you don't even need a schedule.

The route provides commuters within walking distance of 11 stops with access to transit between RTC and Bellevue TC.  Access to the Starter Line would be limited to 4 stops with parking available at 300 stalls at 130^th station.  The schedule currently calls for “10-min all day,” though its not clear what “all day” means.  

 

The Starter Line between Bellevue T/C and South Bellevue P&R includes a stop at East Main that lacks parking for access.  Starter Line riders would transfer to and from ST550 at the P&R for the commute into and out of Seattle.  ST550 is currently routed along 110^th Ave to Bellevue T/C through downtown Bellevue with access at 6 stops along route to P&R.  During peak commute the buses run every 5 minutes. 

 

A Sound Transit CEO Timms Dec 8^th blog post had stipulated that ST550 would continue along with Starter Line to and from P&R.  However, the January 26^thpresentation included the following:

 

Examining opportunities to partially restructure ST Express Bus service to complement Starter Line

 

Clearly an attempt to terminate ST550 at South Bellevue.  The result being the only commuters with access to transit from Bellevue would be those within walking distance of Bellevue T/C and East Main Station.  That all commuters would be forced to transfer from ST550 to Starter Line at South Bellevue for the ride into Bellevue.

The bottom line is the Starter Line needlessly duplicates existing transit service with far better access between RTC and South Bellevue P&R. The Bellevue City Council should take legal action to prevent Sound Transit from implementing a Starter Line that terminates RapidRide B Line at RTC, ST550 at South Bellevue P&R, and forcers riders to transfer from buses to light rail for the trip into Bellevue.

 

 

 

More Reasons for JTC ST Audit

The previous post urged the Washington legislature’s Joint Transportation Committee (JTC) require an audit of Sound Transit Board plans for reducing I-5 and I-90 congestion into and out of Seattle.  This post details why anyone with a modicum of transit system competence who viewed the video of the Boards System Expansion Committee’s January 12th meeting would recognize they need an outside audit.

The meeting video included several Lake Forest Park residents raising concerns with Sound Transit’s plans for a bus access to transit (BAT) lane for the 1.2-mile portion of SR522 Stride S3 Line through their residential area..   They thought the approximate 2 minute transit time reduction didn’t justify spending more than $200M (a 2021 estimate) that will change forever the Lake Forest Park persona.   

 

Sound Transit Staff later presented a chart showing the Stride S3 Line would reduce PM peak Shoreline to Bothell from 54 minutes to 39 minutes in 2042.  Other charts showed the plan  included removing more than 400 trees and confiscating portions of more than 20 private properties.  They estimated the Lake Forest Park BAT segment would save an average of 2.3 minutes on the Shoreline to Bothell PM peak weekday compute.  The System Expansion Committee unanimously approved Sound Transit proceeding.  

 

An outside auditor would “likely” conclude that the costs of adding the Lake Forest Park BAT far exceeds the “benefits” of not adding 2.3  minutes to 39 minute transit travel time from Shoreline or the far longer total travel time from Seattle. Especially since the time savings would be less in 2027 when the Stride S3 Line began.

Others expressed concern over the way Sound Transit was proceeding with plans for a tunnel under Seattle and a light rail station in Chinatown. They asked for additional time and to consider other options. The expansion committee didn't respond. An outside auditor would likely suggest the "option" of terminating the Ballard Link at Westlake and avoid the cost of a second tunnel and the need for light rail station at Chinatown.

The video included the expansion committee approving Motions No M2023-03 requiring Bellevue to share in a firefight access door in the Bellevue downtown tunnel and M2023-04 requiring Bellevue, Mercer Island, and Redmond to pay for emergency responder training needed for the startup of the East Link and Downtown Redmond Link Extensions.  An outside audit would likely ask why the 3-block long Bellevue Tunnel needs a fire access door since the 4-mile Northgate Tunnel doesn’t.  Also, why there’s been no mention of Seattle being asked to fund emergency responder training.

 

The video also exposed Sound Transit’s latest response to the need to delay East Link to redo light rail track attachments. That without access to Operation Maintenance Facility (OMF) East Sound Transit needed to limit Lynnwood Link trains to 8-minute headways.   That when East Link begins operation the Lynnwood Link would have 4-minute headways during peak operation, but both Link 1 Line and Link 2 Line will both have 8-minute headways. 

 An audit would "likely" conclude 4-car light rail trains every 8 minutes on either Line won't have the capacity needed to reduce multilane freeway capacity into Seattle.  Especially since they intend to use both Lines to replace bus routes.  That Sound Transit should use the East Link delay to enable terminating the route at the Chinatown Station that would allow both Link Line 1 and East Link to have 4-minute headways.

Instead the video showed the System Expansion Committee approving spending up to $6M to maintain the option to use the delay to spend up to $6 million  to implement a Starter Line between Redmond Technology Center and South Bellevue Park and Ride.  The final decision to authorize opening passenger service on East Link Starter Line was anticipated in October 2023.  That revenue service would start in Q2/2024 .

 

Again, none of the committee members asked questions as to how many riders they expected with the Starter Line.  An auditor would note  that those commuting from Redmond to Bellevue had better access with existing Rapid Ride Route.   That ST550 in Bellevue  had better access than Starter Line and avoided the need to transfer at South Bellevue P&R.  Also that very few commuters returning from Seattle will choose to transfer to Starter Line for the route into Bellevue.

The bottom line is Sound Transit has managed to avoid disclosing Northgate Link ridership was a fraction of the 42,000-49000 riders projected. However, when East Link debuts the problems will be so obvious that no Sound Transit "disclosure" will be needed. Thus, the debut delay from June 2023 to 2025 summer allows Sound Transit to spend additional billions on fatally flawed "voter approved" extensions. 

The Legislatures JTC should require a Sound Transit audit that could result in  expediting the West Seattle and Ballard extensions, debunk the need for a BAT lane in Lake Forest Park,  a second tunnel under Seattle, and the need for a Chinatown Station.  That Sound Transit should  terminate East Link at Chinatown, stop the folly of the East Link Starter Line,  and more to mitigate Sound Transits Expansion Committee incompetence.

The JTC constituents and the entire Sound Transit service area surely deserve it. 

Legislature’s JTC Should Audit Sound Transit

Several posts on this blog have urged the Seattle Times ask legislators to require a performance audit of Sound Transit’s plans to use light rail to reduce I-5 and I-90 congestion into and out of Seattle.  They’ve all been ignored.  This post is an attempt to convince the legislators Joint Transportation Committee (JTC) to use their oversight authority to require Sound Transit do so.

It's not the first time the JTC committee has required Sound Transit action. In 2008, they had concerns over the fact that East Link was the first attempt to put light rail on a “floating bridge”.  The problem was assuring the “expansion joints” connecting the floating and fixed portions of the bridge could withstand the loads from light rail trains.  

In Sept 2005, the WSDOT thought they'd demonstrated the I-90 Bridge/light rail compatibility using flat bed trucks to simulate light rail cars. The JTC was not satisfied because they commissioned an independent review team (IRT) to evaluate the bridge design with light rail.  (The FHA had similar concerns concluding “additional work to be done to determine if it is feasible to design an expansion joint to accommodate light rail”.)

 

The result was nearly ten years after they’d “demonstrated” the I-90 Bridge could withstand the loads, an August 22, 2015, Sound Transit Blog reported the contract with Parsons Brinckerhoff (PB) had expanded to $56M. to finish the design.   The blog reported Seattle Times publisher Frank Blethen’s response was to accuse Sound Transit of incompetence and implored future East Link riders to “carry a life jacket”.

 

Sound Transit’s subsequent actions are surely worthy of outside review. For example, they no longer publish “Service Delivery Quarterly Performance Reports”.  They provided details as to Service Provided, Boarders, Operating Costs, and Fare Box Recovery for each transit mode. The Link Light Rail data included riders added at each Link Station. 

 

An audit could reveal how many of Sound Transit’s predicted 41,000 to 49,000 Northgate Link daily riders added got on at the three Link Stations.  An audit could predict how many of the Sound Transit 37,000 to 57,000 riders would be added by the extension to Lynnwood.  Or whether Sound Transit was justified in predicting extensions to Lynnwood, Federal Way, and Redmond will increase ridership from 18 million in 2022 to 62 million in 2026?  

 

An audit could question the wisdom of Sound Transit routing East Link trains through DSTT eventually to Mariner P&R near Everett.  Consider whether the Ballard Link should be terminated at Westlake Station avoiding the need to spend billions on a second tunnel under Seattle.  

Most important an audit could consider whether the “voter approved” extensions will reduce I-5 and I-90 peak-hour congestion.  How much will the extensions add to cost during off-peak operation and reduce fare box recovery?  How will the riders added by extensions affect access for current riders?

 

The bottom line is the Sound Transit Board has used ST3 approval in 2016 to spend $54B by 2041 on a transit system expansion to currently plan spending   $149.1B by 2046 implementing the expansion. That's surely worthy of an outside audit.  Especially since it ends up with a $30B tax-based debt and ST3 taxes that end in 2041. The JTC should require the audit.