Sound Transit's Line 2 Debut

 As expected the January 24th Seattle Times  front page included the Traffic Lab article, ‘Long awaited launch is set for light rail linking Seattle and Bellevue” set for March 28th. The article expounds on all the benefits resulting from finally having light rail connections across I-90.  A January 23rd Sound Transit News Release and January 22nd Seattle Times Traffic Lab articles have detailed how the extension will operate, creating a fully integrated regional light rail  system. 

Yet there’s little evidence this "integrated regional light rail  system”.can  reduce congestion. The problem is 4-car light rail trains lack the capacity to attract the riders needed to reduce multi-lane roadway peak hour congestion and cost too much to operate during off-peak.   Sound Transit should have never been allowed to use the I-90 center roadway for light rail.  Doing so precluded two-way BRT with 10 times light rail capacity, 10 years sooner, at 1/10^th the cost. 

Sound Transit compounded the capacity problem by using light rail to replace bus routes across the bridge and routing the trains through DSTT to UW and beyond. They initially estimated 50,000 riders would use light rail.  It’s unclear how many Starter Line riders will be added by the extension and the 2 Line stops on Mercer Island and Judkins Park in Seattle. 

They compounded the operating problem by using the line to provide half the trains to Lynnwood.  How do they assure the 2 Line routes returning from downtown Redmond will be able to safely merge with the 1 Line routes from Federal Way prior to entering DSTT?

Replacing ST550 from downtown Bellevue will end eastside commuter access to transit  at 6 stops between Bellevue T/C and South Bellevue Station and 7 stops in Seattle along 4th Ave. There’s also concern that plans to terminate I-90 corridor buses on Mercer Island to commute into and out of Seattle will dissuade many current transit riders. The Washington Department of Ecology has also raised concerns the stormwater from the tracks could pollute Lake Washington.

The March 28^th debut will also add to Sound Transit’s operating cost. (The January 22^nd board meeting approved increasing the 2026 budget, they’d approved in November, by $60 million, to complete the extension.)  At light rail car cost $30 per mile, the 30-mile trip from CID to Downtown Redmond and back will cost $900 per car, $3600 for 4-car trains. Sound Transit’s schedule for trains every 8 minutes during peak times and 10-15 minutes off peak from 5 a.m. to 1 a.m. will require about 120 trips for a cost of about $432,000 daily. The resulting cost per rider awaits the ridership results, something they haven’t released from the Federal Way extension

The bottom line is the March 28^th 2 Line debut will demonstrate its limited ability to operate with 1 Line to Lynnwood, attract the riders needed to reduce I-90 corridor congestion, and what its operation costs. A precursor to future light rail ST3 extension results

Seattle Times CCA “Basics”

 The Sunday Seattle Times Opinion Editorial “Cringeworthy Error in CCA Numbers Proves Need to Focus on Basics”, laments the Ecology Departments “mistakes”.  The Department of Ecology estimates the price of preventing a metric ton or climate pollution jumped from about $40 to $313 per ton. The editorial concluded “Washington must get the basics right and put politics as usual aside in favor of making the biggest gains in the shortest possible time.”

The editorial asks the question “Are the climate protections worth the cost?”.  Yet Washington’s climate benefits from the CCA’s carbon marketing fee is limited to the state only emitting 1.2% of the country’s CO2, 11% of planets, or ~0.12% of the total planet’s CO2 emissions.  That “benefit” is dwarfed by CO2 on the jet stream from China and its 30% of planet’s.

That “Getting the basics right” should include recognition CCA carbon allowance fees and future fees will deter less than half the future CO2 emissions. The 5 oil refiners in the state will pay for the 6.7 lbs of CO2 emission from refining crude oil into gas and transferring the gas to the fuel pump but no one will pay for the 20 lbs of CO2 emissions from burning the gas. in their vehicle.   Washington’s power companies will pay for the  CO2 emissions from burning natural gas to generate electricity.  But, except for those using natural gas for concrete,  those burning the natural gas won’t pay for the emissions.  

The bottom line is any Seattle Times “basic” should not be limited to some Ecology Department’s updated report on the cost of Washington’s  CCA’s CO2 emissions but to a recognition any benefits are limited by the state’s small impact on the planet's emissions and failure to impose fees on most of those emissions.

More Sound Transit Board Incompetence.

The Sound Transit Board’s decision to proceed with a second tunnel as part of ST3 continues the board’s failure to recognize what constitutes effective public transit.  That public transit should be used to provide those unable or unwilling to drive with access  from near where they live to near their desired destination, for most of the commuters, downtown Seattle. Yet the board continues its decade-long failure to recognize plans to spend $190 billion on ST3 extensions that can’t provide that  service during peak hours and cost too much to operate off-peak.

Again, the second tunnel decision demonstrates that failure.  Ridership data indicate most 1 Line southbound commuters into downtown Seattle exit at Westlake and northbound commuters at existing CID. Those needing to go beyond the two stations can use the existing Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel’, (DSTT).  Routing 1 Line trains only through DSTT would allow Sound Transit to maximize 4-car light rail train capacity along the entire I-5 corridor.  

 I-90 corridor commuters can use 2 Line light rail trains to the existing CID station for the commute into Seattle.  Transfer to 1 Line trains at the CID for service north through DSTT or south to SeaTac.   Terminating 2 Line trains at CID allows its operation to be set by eastside transit demand and avoids problems with safely merging 1 Line and 2 Line trains return routes though DSTT. 

 Commuters in the areas served by the Balland and West Seattle light rail extensions to SODO already have better access to transit from near where they live to near where they want to go in downtown Seattle. The bus routes gain ridership from increased access with stops costing a fraction of light rail stations for commutes both into and out of the city. Thus, again, there is no need for a second tunnel for light rail from Ballard or a second bridge over the Duwamish waterway.

The bottom line is the existing Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) can accommodate 1 Line I-5 corridor commuters traveling through Seattle. The existing bus service can be expanded to meet the transit needs of both the Ballard and West Seattle areas, eliminating the requirement for a second tunnel to Sodo and a second Duwamish waterway bridge.

By utilizing the existing infrastructure, we can avoid years of disruption and billions in spending on ST3 light rail projects that do not reduce congestion.

Climate Lab Doesn’t “Get It”

The January 8^th Seattle Times front page article “Political fight over money raised by climate act intensifies” and page seven article, “State wildly overestimated climate law effect” continue the paper’s Climate Lab’ project failure to understand the Climate Commitment Act’s benefits.

The articles raised concern that the actual reductions were only 4% of predictions, apparently the result of a “simple error”.  That the emission cuts were 1% of their original estimates, an error due a “rounding issue for a single program funded by the climate account”. The article concludes, Washington’s Ecology Climate Pollution Reductions Program “Still gives out the incorrect emissions data.”

As absurd as the excuses and continued faulty emission pronouncements are, the Climate Lab still doesn’t recognize the limited benefit from any Climate Commitment Act. The CCA will result in refiners requiring drivers to pay more for the fuel they burn, but nothing for the emissions emitted by those burning the fuel. Those using electric power to warm their homes, cook their food, or charge their EV batteries will pay more. Those burning natural gas in their homes or commercial areas where they work, won’t pay for the resulting emissions. Thus, Washington’s CCA carbon emission allowance fees will affect less than half the state’s carbon emissions. 

Whatever benefits the CCA could have on the state’s carbon emissions is limited by the fact Washington only makes up 1.56% of the country. That the entire country only emits 11.2 % of the planets.  Thus, the state’s carbon market only affects 0.17% of the planet’s emission. Even that benefit to the state is dwarfed by jet stream emissions from China.

The bottom line is the Climate Lab doesn’t recognize the CCA is forcing state residents to pay the high price for the fuel they burn and those paying more for the electrical power they use will do little  to mitigate the impact of carbon emissions on Washington’s climate.

ST CEO Constantine's Ineptness Continues

The Seattle Time Jan 1 article, “Sound Transit’s Leader is postponing part of his raise” typifies the paper’s Traffic Lab response to Dow Constantine’s ineptness.  Constantine will immediately have his 2025 salary, $450,000, raised to $474,276. But, at his request, a $30,000 “performance” award and $28,457 from receiving “outstanding” from the board will be delayed. However, he will eventually get the $532,733 this year, 35 days of vacation convertible to cash at some rate, and more money added to his retirement fund than the $34,750 given last year. 

The Sound Transit Board's decision last year to unanimously hire Constantine was based on their assessment he had the  “sophisticated local knowledge and commitment to building the Puget Sound rail network”.  Yet, he hasn’t been able to propose how to fund the $35 billion the board added in 2025 for the current $185 billion long term need (up from $54 billion voters approved in 2016). 

Even more important, Constantine fails to recognize Sound Transit’s Puget Sound rail network won’t reduce the area’s congestion. That 4-car trains won’t provide the capacity needed to reduce peak hour roadway congestion and cost too much to operate off peak.  That existing bus transit from Snohomish Community Transit, King County Metro, and Pierce County Transit had the capacity and flexibility needed to meet current and future demand. That the cost of providing access needed for those routes was dwarfed by the cost of providing access at light rail stations. 

Thus, light rail tracks should have never been extended past UW Stadium, across I-90 Bridge, and beyond SeaTac airport. Commuters using the extensions to Northgate and Lynnwood in 2025 were far less than predicted, despite Sound Transit terminating bus routes at light rail stations to enhance ridership. Constantine apparently not recognizing that reducing bus routes reduces transit capacity into Seattle and that transferees reduce access to downstream 1 Line riders.  Constantine’s ineptness continues his support for an extension to Everett that fails any rational cost/benefit analysis.

His decision to “want to be judged” by East Link debut suggests he doesn’t understand the 2 Line problems later this year.  Routing the Line from Redmond to Lynnwood for half the I-5 corridor trains will presumably require 4-car trains; doubling the operating Starter Line costs, but few added riders. Problems with Sound Transit assuring 1 Line and 2 Line returning from Federal Way and Redmond can safely merge to go through DSTT.  A competent transit CEO would’ve recognized that 2 Line trains should be terminated prior to going through DSTT, with demand set by east side transit demand.

The bottom line is Constantine’s 2026 raises, despite his ineptness, are the result of an equally inept Sound Transit Board, most of whom he selected.  The 2 Line May debut he wanted to be judged by will “likely” demonstrate the result.