The previous post opined the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate using Prop 1 light rail extensions routed through the DSTT to replace bus routes into Seattle doesn't reduce congestion; instead their riders displace current riders. That the operating costs with longer routes and lack of parking for access will limit ridership, dramatically increasing costs per rider.
Sound Transit monitors ridership and fares from each of the link stations so it can easily provide daily ridership and fare revenue. The operating costs are based on number of trips, vehicle miles added by extension, and vehicle cost per mile. Sound Transit's October schedule provides 84 round trips of 4-car trains, (It's not clear what operational changes CEO Rogoff agreed to with UW to appease concerns that light rail operation exceeded agreed-upon vibration and EMF levels under the campus.)
The 4.2-mile extension adds 8.4 miles to the University Link round trip for an additional 2822.4 daily vehicle miles. Sound Transit's 2021 budgets $30.17 for vehicle revenue operating costs per mile. Thus, Northgate Link operation will add $85,152 to daily light rail costs. Sound Transit can use the ridership, fare revenue, and operating cost to provide cost per rider and shortfall between fare box revenue and operating costs. It's only a question of when they will release the data.
Every month Sound Transit releases Agency Progress Reports detailing how they will spend funds expanding their transportation system. The latest example is the Aug 27, July version. It provided progress reports for Link Light Rail, Sounder, and Regional Express and Stride "Active Projects" for the month. (Realigned extensions are not included.)
Each transit mode report includes overall program schedules and detail on each project. The monthly reports provide Project Schedules, Program Budgets, Key Project Activities, Closely Monitored Issues, Risk Management, Contingency Management, and details on Major Construction Contract Packages.
The program budgets also included Authorized Project Allocation, Committed and Incurred to Date, and Estimated Final Cost for the projects through 2024. Thus on August 27th Sound Transit published a detail report on July funding status for implementing the transit mode "Active Projects".
Yet Sound Transit continues to delay releasing current transit mode ridership and operating costs. They waited until August to release the 2020 Sound Transit Annual Report, 2020 Financial Statements, and the Independent Auditor's Report detailing ridership and costs. Their Documents and Reports web page lists "Quarterly Service Delivery Reports" and "Quarterly Financial Performance Reports" for the transit modes.
The service deliver report provides vehicle hours, miles, and trips operated. Total boardings for the quarter, cost per boarding, and weekday boardings at each station are provided. It also compares those with previous quarter and with budget predictions. (e.g.Sound Transit predictions for 41,000 to 49,000 daily riders by 2022.) Again, the data should be readily available yet the "Service Deliver Performance Report Q1 2021" is the latest released by Sound Transit.
The financial report provides Annual and YTD Budget Revenues, Operating Costs, and Project Budgets. Quarterly boardings and fare revenue for the transit modes are compared with budget predictions and previous quarter. Again the data should be readily available yet Sound Transit hasn't release a quarterly financial report this year.
The bottom line is Sound Transit delays in releasing quarterly service and financial reports delays exposing their failure to predict the loss in ridership and costs per rider in 2021 budget. Their delay in releasing the Northgate Link results will delay exposing that Prop 1 extensions should have never been routed through the DSTT.
Billions and years have already been spent extending light rail beyond UW and SeaTac on I-5. and across I-90 bridge to Overlake that won't reduce congestion. Delaying the Northgate Link results allows them to add another year and spend hundreds of millions on extensions that add to the problem. Sound Transit should not be allowed to delay releasing that data.
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