Sound Transit Needs New CEO and Board.

The videos of the December 17th Sound Transit Finance and Audit committee and subsequent board meeting are the clearest evidence yet Sound Transit needs a new CEO and board.  They prompted me to announce my candidacy for King County Executive in 2021.  As with my previous nine candidacies with no expectation or desire to win.  It's an attempt to make up for the Seattle Times decade-long failure to inform the county about Sound Transit's inability to deal with the area's congestion.

The videos showing the Sound Transit Board response to the October 10th "Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021" exemplified that failure.  That neither Sound Transit CEO Peter Rogoff nor Dow Constantine's Board of Directors understood a light rail spine routed through DSTT wouldn't reduce congestion.  That the way to reduce congestion on existing roadways was to increase access to transit with increased capacity along roadway into Seattle.

The December 17th videos recorded Sound Transit CEO Rogoff and board failure to do either.  The presentation included the "Long Range Financial Plan Projections 2017-2041" and "Proposed 2021 Budget" charts as the October 10th budget.  However the presentation also included a "Transit Improvement Plan to 2026" chart that wasn't in the October 10th budget.  It showed $21.46 billion in "Board-approved costs for active projects through 2026".

The presentation included 4 charts with budget numbers and took about 10 minutes. No one asked any questions and all 17 board members approved the budget in less than 10 minutes. (All of the board members ignored an email of my objections that was distributed prior to meeting.) Afterwords CEO Rogoff congratulated the board and the staffs for this year's approach to the budget.  

A competent board would've never approved a ten-minute presentation of a budget.  A competent CEO would have included the boards approval of spending $21.46 billion between 2021 and 2026 in the October 10th "Financial Plan update and Proposed 2021 Budget".  Especially since the October 10th budget response to COVID-19 was a 4-year realignment with no increase in "Outstanding debt" until 2029.  Yet even the $2.5 billion expansions in 2021 budget required a $700 million TIFIA loan.

Still no one on the board objected to the plan to spend the $21.46 billion or to the fact it wasn't even included in the October 10th budget.  The end result being the only ones aware of the plan are those who watched the video.

  

Those failures pale in comparison to the fact that even if they find the funds, extending light rail through the DSTT increases operating costs, not capacity.  What riders the extensions add will limit access to current Central Link riders.  Northgate Link operation next September will demonstrate CEO Rogoff and board claims for 41,000 to 49,000 are delusional.  That the end result of the $21.46 billion TIP will be a huge bond debt, a light rail spine too costly to operate, and no reduction in congestion.

Clearly Sound Transit CEO Rogoff and board need to be replaced  This would normally be a Seattle Times Traffic Lab "thorny issue to dig into".  Yet the day of the videos a Traffic Lab article heralded CEO Rogoff's "skipping his $21,000 raise" to his $379,000 salary.  Since then they've neglect to report on the "issue".

My candidacy for King County Executive is an attempt to make up for that failure. 

 

Traffic Lab Ignores ST CEO Rogoff's 2021 Budget Debacle

The Settle Times refers to Traffic Lab as a "project that digs into the region's thorny transportation issues".  It's not clear what "thorny issue" led to the December 17th Traffic Lab article "Sound Transit CEO will skip $21,000 pay boosts next year".  It's also not clear how his decision to give 1100 employees $3000 for "successful performance" comports to "his agency working toward containing operating costs"

What the Traffic Lab article neglected to "dig into" was the debacle awaiting the area from the Sound Transit Board approval of Rogoff's 2021 budget, also on December 17th.  The CEO they heralded for skipping a $21,000 raise was still going to get $379,000 next year for his plan to spend $2.5 billion as next year's installment of $96 billion by 2041 from ST3 approval.

More than $1.5 billion will be spent in 2021 on light rail spine extensions routed through the DSTT that will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  The result in 2041 will be $20 billion owed in bonds and light rail extensions too expensive to operate.  

Sound Transit's "Financial Plan update & Proposed 2021 Budget" was presented to the board's Finance and Audit Committee on October 14th so the Traffic Lab had ample opportunity to "dig into it". The budget can best be described as an "overview" with a series of charts showing the pandemic's impact on both the "Long Range Financial Plan" and the "Proposed 2121 Budget".  The primary result of the "Long Range Financial Plan" will be a 4-year delay in the West Seattle-to-Ballard link and an increase in bond debt in 2041 from $17 billion to $20 billion when ST3 funding ends.

However the 2041 bond debt is just the "tip of the iceberg" regarding Sound Transit long-range financial problems.  The 2021 budget did not include long-range forecasts for debt service payments, ridership, or operating costs for the transit modes.  The first budget to do so was the 2019 Financial Plan & Proposed Budget".  It included charts showing a "Summary of Revenues, Expenditures and Borrowing" and "Ridership by Mode" projections from 2017 through 2041.  

The expenditures included costs for system expansion, transit mode capital purchases, and mode operating costs.  The 2041 projections were $2.7 billion in expenditures and $1.2 billion in debt service payments.  The 2041 "Ridership by Mode" predictions were 160 million link light rail riders out of 190 million total.  Rogoff continued Sound Transit's decade-long refusal to add bus transit capacity for another 20 years.

The 2019 budget "iceberg" should have been the budget projections for 2041 to spend $3.9 billion in costs for 190 million riders or $20.53 per rider. Any transit board member with a modicum of competence would have recognized the folly of a budget spending billions on any light rail extensions that cost more than $20 per rider. 

Operating costs for the light rail spine extensions far exceed any rational benefits from added riders, especially when they don't increase capacity through the DSTT.  Any competent transit board member would recognize DSTT limited light rail ridership to a fraction of Rogoff"s 160 million, multiplying the cost per rider.   Unless another light rail route was added the only way to increase transit capacity into Seattle was additional bus routes.

Even more important, a competent board member for any organization would've required some explanation as to how the expenditures would be paid in 2042 when ST3 funding ended.  Instead the Sound Transit Board's response was to extend Rogoff's contract for three years with a hefty raise.  The Traffic Lab either didn't "dig into the issue" or didn't consider the 2019 budget projections for 2041 and beyond a problem.

Rogoff's 2021 budget, after 2 years and $1.5 billion spent extending the spine to Lynnwood and Federal Way, exacerbated the problem.  A competent transit CEO would have recognized the lost revenue necessitated diverting spending from high cost to construct and operate extensions to far lower cost West Seattle-to-Ballard link.  

Instead Rogoff's 2021 budget delayed the less costly link for four years and borrowed an $700 million to increase system expansion funding with $1.5 billion spent on extensions beyond Northgate  and Angel Lake.

As of December 20th there was no video of the December 17th Board of Directors meeting.  I had submitted my rational for rejecting the budget  and received the following response:

On behalf of the Sound Transit Board of Directors, thank you for submitting your public comment regarding the proposed 2121 Budget.  Your comment will be provided to the Board of Directors for consideration prior to its Board Meeting tomorrow.

Please note that this submission is now a public record and the body of your comment will be posted to the Sound Transit website following the meeting for review by the public.

The board presumably approved the budget though I'm still waiting for the video of the meeting and for the Sound Transit website to post my submission.  The Traffic Lab needs to follow-up the article heralding CEO Rogoff's "skipping his $21,000 raise" with a response to his October 14th plan for 2021.  

Spending $2.5 billion as the year's installment for spending $96 billion expanding a transit system that will end up with a $20 billion debt and light rail extensions too expensive to operate is surely worthy of comment.  Especially with no explanation for paying for after ST3 funding ends in 2041.

            

Inslee's COVID-19 Vaccination Priorities

The Seattle times December 14th article heralding Gov Jay Inslee's announcement for COVID-19 typifies much of the media.  In May they derided President' Trump's claim his "Warp Speed" plan would provide a vaccine by the end of the year.  This article now claims his attempt to expedite its approval was "political" rather than an attempt to save lives.

Inslee's decision for vaccine priorities, "mostly health care workers, to receive inoculations" comports with much of the media's priorities.  Yet the ones who are dying from COVID-19 are those in nursing homes or hospitals, not the ones treating them.  Clearly those in nursing homes should be the first to vaccinate.

Those over 75 make up 6.2% of the population.  However Seattle Times "COVID-19 in Washington State" pie charts show 50% of fatalities are those over 80.  These same pie charts show mortality rates for Washington resident over 60 was 50 times that of those under 60.

Clearly, if reducing fatalities is the goal, those over 60 and those with some other contributing factor should be among the first.  Vaccinating health care workers does nothing to reduce the number threatening hospital capacity.  The best way to help them is to reduce the number they need to treat.

If the goal is to maximize the vaccine's benefit those teaching in schools should also have priority.  Inoculating a teacher could allow 15 to 20 children to enjoy the benefits of in-person teaching and end the need for stay-at-home parents.  

Inslee's lockdown has done nothing to reduce the number of cases or fatalities in Washington.  The way to end that debacle is to reduce the number of cases and fatalities.  Inoculate those in nursing homes, those over 80, and those over 60 that currently die from the virus.  Inslee needs to understand his vaccine priority should be not those who treat it but who need it to live.

Seattle Times Ignores ST 2021 Budget Debacle

The Seattle Times Sept 2nd editorial, "Speak up on Sound Transit Plans" response to Sound Transit 30-minute comment period regarding their Transit Development plan 2020-2025 included the following:

"The comment period will provide an opportunity for a broad conversation about transit plans going forward, as Sound Transit decides which projects to delay and possibly shelve"

The editorial concluded:

"Concerned residents should review and comment on what's in the works'.  Consider it the start of a vital, regional discussion"

The Times was clearly concerned about Sound Transit's 5-year TDP. Yet they've ignored the upcoming December 17th Sound Transit Board meeting to approve CEO Peter Rogoff's budget for 2021 and his latest proposals for 2017-2041.  They continue to ignore Rogoff delusions about light rail ridership, failure to increase bus transit capacity, and long-term finances.

Rogoff's "2019 Financial Plan & Proposed Budget" should have been a "wake-up" call for the entire region.  It proposed spending most of $96 billion between 2017 and 2041 on a light rail spine that will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.

The budget included a "Summary of Revenues, Expenditures and Borrowing" showing $2.7 billion in expenditures and $1.2 billion in debt service payments in 2041.  The budget also included "Ridership by Mode" predictions with 160 million link light rail riders out of 190 million total.  Thus, in 2041, the 2019 budget projected spending $3.9 billion in costs for 190 million riders, $20.53 per rider.  The "Fare revenue" for the modes totaled $480 million or $2.53 for each of the 190 million riders.

A competent transit board would have recognized the folly of spending more than $1 billion in 2019 as the year's installment on plans to spend $96 billion extending a light rail system that will cost more than $20 per rider.  Especially if they were competent enough to recognize actual ridership in 2041 will be less than half Rogoff's projection, doubling costs per rider and halving fare revenue.

Extending the light rail spine results in a transit system, not only too expensive to operate, it results in  a  $15 billion debt in 2041, with no means to pay after ST3.  All could have been avoided with bus routes using limited access lanes on existing roadways, adding far more capacity than the spine at a fraction of the operating cost

Instead the Sound Transit Board responded to Rogoff's 2019 budget by renewing his contract for three years with a hefty raise.  Apparently the Seattle times Traffic Lab, a project that "digs into the region's thorny transportation issues" either didn't "dig into the ridership cost" or chose to ignore the issue and board approval.  The result being two more years and hundreds of millions spent extending the spine.

The December 17th "likely" Sound Transit Board  approval of Rogoff's 2021 budget response to COVID-19 exacerbates the problem.  A competent transit board would have recognized the way to respond to the pandemic downturn would be to divert funds from the light rail spine to the West Seattle-to-Ballard link.  

It adds transit capacity into downtown Seattle at a fraction of the cost of spine construction and operation.  Transit capacity into Seattle and Bellevue would be increased if spine funds were used for local bus routes providing access to existing stations with added bus routes along I-5, I-90, and I-405.

instead the board will "likely" approve a 2021 budget that delays the West Seattle-to-Ballard link for 4 years and still results in an additional $2 billion in debt in 2041, adding to the cost per rider.  The Sound Transit Board needs to explain how they intend to pay for transit system debt service and operation in 2042.  Until they do the 2021 budget plan to spend $1.5 billion extending the spine simply adds to the problem.

It's time the Seattle Times, so concerned about Sound Transit's 2020-2025 TDP, expose the 2021 budget and light rail spine debacle.

Benefits From Inslee's Lockdown?

A previous post questioned whether the increase in Washington COVID-19 cases constituted a "Dire Situation".  Since then the increasing number of cases has resulted in demands from health officials and the media for more stringent lockdowns that will likely continue well into next year.  Thousands of lives will be disrupted if not devastated as a result.

This post questions the "benefits"of Gov Inslee continuing to heed their advice.  The Seattle Times "COVID-19 in Washington State" has included data during initial lockdown.  The April 1st mortality for 14-day average deaths, 22, from approximately 350 14-day average cases was 6.28%.   Clearly the early lockdowns reduced the spread and saved lots of lives.

However, the "benefits" from the current lockdown are far less.  Comparable numbers as of 11:59 p.m., Dec 3rd were 22 fatalities from 2482 cases or 0.89%.  That's up from those prior to the lockdown, Nov. 17th, 14-day average 15 fatalities from 2215 positive cases per day, 0.68%.

It's clear the current lockdown hasn't further reduced cases or fatalities.  The Department of Labor November jobs report prompted the following regarding the "costs" of the lockdown:

"Progress in the labor market has slowed at the worst possible time".  "We might be optimistic about the spring, but the winter could bring another round of economic pain".

Bank of America economists agreed, pointing out that the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more ticked up form 3.6 million to 3.9 million-- around 37% more unemployed people, largely workers in the hospitality sector. 

Inslee's current lockdown has caused economic problems in our state.  The question is what are the benefits from his current lockdown and likely decision to continue it. The Times reported the, "DOH doesn't track recoveries", however the WebMD website recently concluded

Experts also don't have information about the outcome of every infection.  However, early estimates predict that the overall COVID-19 recovery rate is between 97% and 99.75%.

Their estimate limits both the fatalities and other long-term effects.

The problem has been Gov Inslee, health officials, and media pundits advocating for the lockdown have apparently ignored the Times COVID-19 "pie charts" detailing the ages of those who tested positive and those who died as a result.  (While they don't provide comparable data for hospitalizations the fatalities surely reflect COVID-19 "cost" on hospitals and staff.)  They've remained relatively constant for months.

The Dec. 3rd charts showed those age 0-19 had 15% of 2482 cases but no fatalities, 0.00% mortality, those 20-39 had 40% of cases but only 1% of fatalities, 0.022% mortality;  those 40-59 had 28% of cases with 9% of fatalities, 0.28% mortality. The total morality for the 80% of Washington residents under age 60 was 0.11%.  The mortality for those over 60, with 17% of case but 90% of fatalities, was 4.69%.

By comparison the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2018 mortality rates for ages 15-24 was 0.074%, ages 25-44, 0.328%, ages 45-64 1.29% and ages 65-84, 6.26%  The total NCHS mortality rate for ages 15-64 was 1.69%.  Thus for the one person out of the 1000 under the age of 60 who dies from COVID-19 14 others will die from other causes.  For those over 60, 95 out of 100 will survive the virus.  

More recently the COVID-19 data in the Dec 8th times reported the 14-day average number of cases increased from 1710 per day on November 17th when lockdown began to 2633 cases per day.  Again 14-day average fatalities had increased, from 13 to 20 per day and those over 60 had 16% of cases and 90% of the fatalities.

Fatalities for those under 60, the 10% of 20 fatalities, 2.0 per day, from 84% of the 2633 cased, 2212,  reduced the mortality rate to 0.09%  Comparable rates for those over 60, 16% of cases and 90% of fatalities was 4.74%, more than 50 times the mortality rate of those under 60.

Yet it's those under 60 who are enduring the "cost" of the lockdown.  They make up nearly all of the current 3.9 million long-term unemployed.  They either work at or patronize the restaurants and bars, bowling lanes, movie theaters and gyms.  They're also the ones enduring limitation on schools, social gatherings, travel and sporting events.  Limiting their access to religious service and forbidding weddings and funerals adds to their loss.

By comparison many of those over 60 are retired, less socially active, in elder care facilities, or have some additional health problem.  The lockdown hasn't changed their lives so it hasn't changed their mortality rate.  The only way to reduce their fatalities is by vaccination, justifying the recent CDC priority decision.  Eventually all those wanting vaccination will be able to do so.  The questions is whether the benefit of extending the lockdown until they're vaccinated justify the cost.  

The benefit of in-person teaching surely outweighs the cost of those under 20, with 0.0% mortality and teachers under 60 with 0.09% mortality.  The lockdown costs for all those under 60 surely outweighs the benefits of reducing their 10% of  fatalities until they're vaccinated, especially since continuing the lockdown will do little to reduce the cases or deaths for those over 60.

It's time Gov Inslee and all those advocating for continuing the lockdown recognized that reality.

Sound Transit Board Can Mitigate Northgate Debacle

The November 19th Sound Transit Board meeting video detailed preparations for the debut of Sound Transit's Northgate Link operation in Sept. 2021.  It's the first of Prop 1 extensions beyond UW that should have never been built.

Sound Transit agreed to pay UW $20 million to tunnel under the university to Northgate rather than use the UW station to interface between increased 520 BRT and Central Link into Seattle.  Thousands of commuters from both sides of the lake would have benefitted.  Instead Sound Transit extended Central Link to Northgate spending $2.5 billion on what was described in their website as "a 4.2-mile, 3-station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership 41,000 to 49,00 daily by 2022"

The November 19th video of Sound Transit's presentation to the board for Northgate's initial operation demonstrates the problem.  The first item on the agenda was the Northgate operating schedule.  Sound Transit's initial draft, "trains running every 8-minutes during rush hour,(rather that 6 min),  15-minute intervals midday & weekends,  and 30-minutes late night was revised due to survey results to 10 minutes midday & weekends, 15 minutes late evening.

A schedule of 6 hours of peak-operation 8-minute intervals, 10 hours of off-peak 10-minute intervals, and 2 hours of late-night 15-minute intervals requires 113 round trip routes each weekday to Northgate.  A light rail car costs ~$25 per mile, so routing a 3 or 4-car light rail train the 8.4 miles to Northgate and back adds $645 to $860 to the routes operating cost: $72,885  to $97,180 for the 113 daily round trips.

The purported reason for spending the $2.5B extending light rail to Northgate was to reduce I-5 congestion by attracting more commuters to public transit and reducing bus routes into Seattle. Again Sound Transit claimed 41,000 to 49,000 commuters would use Northgate daily in 2022.  If 80% of those commuters rode Northgate Link into and out of Seattle during the 6 hour peak commute, each of the 45 peak-hour trains would have to accommodate between 683 and 817 riders; if not exceeding total capacity, ending access for current University Link riders.

Only a fraction of ST CEO Rogoff's projected commuters will ride Northgate Link.  Even a smaller number will be the added transit riders needed to reduce I-5 congestion.  Sound Transit has refused to add parking at any of the three stops,  Rather than add new local bus routes to the station to increase access the November 19th video detailed plans to "truncate" current ST 511-513 routes at Northgate (ending access at NE 45th Freeway Station) and ST 522 route at Roosevelt station for riders.  

However, the survey results also showed commuters preferred riding buses directly into Seattle during rush hour.   As a result, ST 510, which runs from Everett station every 10-15 minutes between 5:00 and 8:45 a.m. and from 2:30 to 6:50 p.m. will continue into and out of Seattle. 

All of the Snohomish Community Transit 400 series buses  currently into and out of Seattle will continue. KCM41, which currently runs from Lakewood will continue into Seattle from Northgate.  Metro has even added new  KCM  322 & 361 routes from Northgate through  Roosevelt Station into Seattle.  

Thus Northgate operation will only replace 22 ST 511/513 buses into Seattle between 6:00 and 9:00 a.m., and 29 ST 511/513 routes out of Seattle to Northgate between 2:30 and 7:00 p.m.: trivializing any I-5 congestion benefits from Northgate into and out of Seattle.  It also raises questions as to why Sound Transit would route 21 3 or 4-car trains from UW to Northgate to accommodate those riding 22 morning ST 511/513 routes.

The last Sound Transit quarterly ridership reports for individual routes showed 9,138 daily riders on routes 510-513 in 3Q 2019.  However, 80% of those probably rode on ST 510 during peak commute.  The 5088 daily ridership for 3Q 2019 for ST 522 will be forced to transfer to either Northgate Link at Roosevelt station or to KCM 41,  KCM 322, or KCM 361 to continue into  Seattle.  Thus, daily ridership on Northgate Link in 2021 will likely be less than 8000.

That limited ridership would have prompted a competent transit board member to suggest they continue routing ST 510 after current 6:50 p.m. schedule rather than routing 3 or 4-car trains beyond UW station to Northgate.  Especially since the ST 511/513 routes being replaced cease operation after 7:00 pm.  The evening routes could include stops at Roosevelt and Northgate with "stops on demand" beyond Northgate, replacing ST 512 routes beyond Northgate ending the need for evening commuters to transfer from light rail to bus.  

A competent transit board member would recognize terminating Central Link at UW station would not only be more convenient for commuters, operating costs would be reduced.  Sound Transit budgets bus operating costs as about $10 per mile.  Routing a bus the 15 miles from 5th and Union to Northgate and back would cost $150.00, a fraction of  3 or 4-car train costs.

Again Sound Transit will continue route ST 510 in the morning. They need to recognize commuters "preference" would be to avoid having to transfer during their returns routes.  They could do so by using ST 510 to replace 26 evening Central Link routes to Northgate. They include the 6 light rail trains for each of the 3 off-peak routs from 7:00 to 10:00 p.m. and the 4 for each of the two late hours from 10:00 pm to 12:00 am.  

Terminating Central Link at UW rather than at Northgate would reduce daily evening operating costs by $16,770 for 3-car trains and $22,360 for 4-car trains.  Again, ending the 21 morning 3 or 4-car train routes from UW to Northgate would save an additional $13,545 for 3-car and $18,060 for 4-car trains each weekday.

Extending ST 510 operation to replace the current 16 ST 512 routes rather than routing 26 light rail trains to Northgate would cost $2400 a day.  Additional ST 510 routes could easily be added to meet future demand.  Doing so would also end the need for evening commuters to transfer to buses at Northgate to reach final destination. 

Again, a competent transit board would have never approved extending Central Link beyond UW station to Northgate.  It does nothing to increase either the number of transit riders or transit capacity into Seattle needed to reduce congestion.  A fraction of the billions and years spent extending Central Link to Northgate could have been used to add parking with access to added bus routes into Seattle.  The least the Sound Transit Board can do is mitigate the damage by limiting its use.