Northgate Link Debut Delay Continues

The previous post opined the Northgate Link debut was needed to expose the Prop 1 debacle.  Sound Transit seems to be of two minds when it comes to when they will do so.  The reason being the Agency Progress Report: December 2020 Link Light Rail, Program Overview chart for the Northgate Link Extension" showed a September 26th, 2022 "Revenue Service date"  Yet the same document included a "Project Summary Schedule" with Revenue Service: September 2021.

The Agency Progress Report January 2021 showing the same "discrepancy" prompted a review of the Overall Program Schedules in earlier progress reports.   It showed the decision to delay in Revenue Service occurred between the May 2020 and June 2020 reports.  It's not clear what prompted the delay.  Agency Progress Reports for July, August, September, and October showed the same "discrepancy".

That revelation prompted another review of the November 19th video of Sound Transit's presentation to the board of the Northgate Link 2021 Service Plan.  A "Why we are here" chart included "Today we are here to inform today's decision on approval of major service changes for implementation in 2021".

The Service Plan Timeline included a September Draft 2022 service plan for public input, 1900 survey responses, incorporating the public input into a final 2021 plan, and the November "Board Adoption of the final 2021 service plan."

Of particular interest were survey results showing a "Preference to keep direct rush hour service to Seattle".  The video detailed the response as to which bus routes would continue into Seattle and which would be terminated at Northgate and Roosevelt Stations.  Sound Transit CEO Rogoff applauded the board's unanimous approval of  the "final service plan"

There was no mention of a year's delay, despite the fact Agency Progress Reports for 4 months had included the delay.  It's not clear which is worse.  The fact CEO Rogoff and Sound Transit neglected to mention the potential year's delay or that none of the board members were apparently aware of 4 months of Sound Transit Agency Progress reports of the delay.

The bottom line is the Northgate Link debut will demonstrate whether light rail routed through the DSTT has the public transit capacity needed to reduce I-5 congestion.  Whether using light rail to replace bus routes will reduce congestion and whether riders added by extensions will limit access for current riders.  Sound Transit has spent years and billions on extensions alongside I-5 beyond UW station and SeaTac and across I-90 Bridge predicated on light rail success.

It's now been nearly 10 months since Sound Transit Northgate Link Extension Revenue Service Date was delayed until September 2022.. CEO Rogoff needs to explain what caused the year delay and why he neglected to mention the delay in the November 19th presentation to  the board.  Whatever the reason, the delay will result in spending an additional $2 billion on Prop 1 extensions that may or may not reduce congestion.

It's "unfortunate  the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, who rather than "digging into the delay" recently abetted Sound Transit need for an additional $11.5 billion in revenue for the spine. Choosing to ignore the December 17th board approval of a 2021 budget with no increase in outstanding debt until 2029.

Northgate Link Debut Needed to Expose Prop 1 Debacle

 The previous post urged Seattle Times Traffic Lab "dig into" why a "Link Light Rail Program overview" chart in the Sound Transit "Agency Progress Report December 2020" showed the Northgate Link debut had been delayed from Sept 2021 to Sept 2022.  Especially since the same document included a "Northgate Link Extension Project Cash Flow Projection" with the following: "the project cost is forecast to reach $1.74B by September 2021, by the time the project opens for revenue service".

The Sound Transit March 1st Gmail, "Now arriving at the Platform: Light rail expansion in all directions" added to the confusion with the following introduction:

Welcome to March 2021!  Although we're not completely sure March 2020 ever ended.... As spring arrives and the days get longer, we continue to make progress on the Lynnwood, Federal Way and East Link Extensions-not to mention Northgate, which opens this fall! 

Sound Transit went from a November 19th video recording plans to begin Northgate Link service in Sept 2021 to a December 2020 Progress Report delaying the debut for a year, to a March 1st Gmail with it "opens this fall".  Rather than "digging into" the December 2020 delay the Times Traffic Lab has chosen to abet Sound Transit's February request for an additional $11.5 billion in funding.

Sound transit would seem to want to demonstrate its Northgate Link website description of the link "as a 2.4 billion, 4.2-mile, 3-station extension that will operate every 6 minutes during peak hours with projected ridership 41,000 to 49,000 by 2022".  Whatever Sound Transit's reason the result will delay demonstrating whether the Prop 1 extensions will reduce congestion on I-5 and I-90. 

Reducing congestion requires reducing the number of vehicles on a roadway.  Studies have shown limiting traffic to 2000 vehicles per hour provides 45 mph and maximizes lane vehicle capacity.  Yet Sound Transit intends to use the Northgate Link to replace bus routes rather than reduce number of single occupancy vehicles or carpools.  The delay extends Sound Transit's failure to recognize reducing the number of buses does little to reduce congestion.

The Northgate Link debut will also demonstrate whether the Prop 1 extensions will reduce congestion on the freeways into Seattle.  Whether light rail routed through the DSTT will have the  capacity to accommodate the number of commuters needed to reduce I-5 congestion into Seattle.  Whether using light rail's limited capacity to replace bus routes into the city reduces I-5 congestion.  Does light rail's limited capacity result in riders added by the extension limiting access for University Link riders?

At this point very little can be done about the Northgate Link.  However its debut will expose the potential folly of spending additional billions on Prop 1 extensions.  The extensions to Lynnwood do nothing to increase light rail capacity.  If replacing bus routes from Northgate doesn't reduce congestion it won't reduce I-5 congestion from Lynnwood.  Riders added by Lynnwood extension will further reduce University Link access.

It should not require a demonstration to conclude light rail extensions beyond Angel Lake and across I-90 bridge, each limited to half the DSTT capacity, won't reduce congestion. However, for doubters, if Northgate Link doesn't reduce congestion from Northgate surely half  the DSTT capacity won't reduce it from Bellevue or Federal Way.

Again very little can be done about the lack of East Link capacity to Bellevue.  The Northgate debut will demonstrate whether Sound Transit's "bus intercept" agreement with Mercer Island to use East Link to replace I-90 bus routes will reduce I-90 congestion.  

Sound Transit should have never extended light rail with half DSTT capacity beyond SeaTac. Their December 20 Progress Report shows they've already "incurred" $663 million of the $2,451 estimated final Federal Way link cost.  The 2021 budget included $429 million for the link.  The Northgate debut will confirm, what should have been obvious, the extension won't reduce congestion and any riders added will reduce access to Central Link commuters who will've lost half their capacity to East Link.  

The bottom line is Sound Transit's decision to extend light rail to Northgate and then attempt to delay its debut "suggests" they have concerns it will demonstrate Prop 1 extensions routed through the DSTT won't reduce congestion.  That using its limited capacity to replace bus routes exacerbates the deficiency.  The delay allows Sound Transit to spend another year and billions more on the extensions. 

My campaign for King County Executive is an attempt to make up for the Times Traffic Lab abetting Sound Transit rather than "digging into" the issue.