This week's Seattle Times Traffic Lab articles heralding the benefits of Northgate Link debut this Saturday typify the paper's more than decade long cheerleading Prop 1 extensions. The September 26th article, "Transit Transformation" describes it as "Light rail ready to open at Northgate, changing more than just commutes". It includes the following regarding Northgate Link benefits.
Sound Transit has estimated the new Northgate, Rosevelt, and U-District stations that open Saturday will attract a combined 42,000 to 49,000 riders per day.
The article reports "neighborhoods are growing" with additional housing units near stations at Northgate, Roosevelt, and UW. A Northgate station photo shows 4-car trains on tracks alongside 4 GP and 2 express lanes on I-5 into Seattle. The claim that four-car trains will "transform" the commute on the six lanes would seem to ignore reality. Especially since Sound Transit intends to use the link to replace bus routes on express lanes not vehicles on GP lanes.
Even Sound Transit agrees, with the article limiting light rail benefits:
Sound Transit no longer promises to make driving faster, but to offer alternatives to traffic jams, including the 177,000 daily vehicles that clog I-5 at Northgate
However, those able to use light rail as an "alternative to traffic jams" will be limited by the lack of access to sufficient light rail capacity and its failure to serve South Lake Union area. Sound Transit has refused to add parking for access, choosing instead to transfer those riding buses to light rail for ridership. The only ones with access at Northgate will be early arrivals at parking near light rail stations or connecting bus routes. Even those with access may reject the hassle of accessing light rail in DSTT and need to transfer back to buses for their return.
Time will tell whether the Traffic Lab Sept 28th and Sept 29th articles claiming Roosevelt and U-District benefits from Northgate Link access are valid. Neither has the parking needed for large numbers to access the link. What will quickly be apparent, reducing bus routes from Northgate does little to reduce the 177,000 vehicles and congestion on I-5.
Those who access at Northgate, Roosevelt, and U District will reduce access for University Link commuters. The Seattle Times companion article in the 26th edition, "Fast facts about Northgate light rail before it opens Saturday" details the problem:
Sound Transit will operate four rail cars per train, for ideal capacity of 600 people, or 4,500 riders per hour per direction, at peak eight -minute frequency.
During peak commute reducing 10 or 20 buses an hour on I-5 express lane will do little to reduce I-5 congestion. However the 1000 or 2000 transferees will severely limit access at University link stations during peak commute. During off-peak operation, the lack of access with parking near Northgate link will result in largely empty four-car trains. The result being a large revenue/operating cost shortfall from link.
The bottom line is the $1.9B Northgate Link debut will demonstrate whether it is the "Transit Transformation" the Traffic Lab maintains, or as Sound Transit concedes, "won't make driving faster", or "offers an alternative to traffic jams".
The only "driving faster" indication, WSDOT report for Lynnwood- and Everett-to-Seattle travel times, is unlikely to be conclusive. The "alternative to traffic jams" can be judged by the number of riders added and how it compares with Sound Transit claim,"Northgate, Roosevelt, and U-District stations that open Saturday will attract a combined 42,000 to 49,000 riders per day".
The riders added at each station along with Sound Transit light rail cost per vehicle mile will provide costs per rider and fare box revenue shortfall. It's the first demonstration of Prop 1 extensions' ability to reduce congestion and what that reduction will cost. Sound Transit will be monitoring the ridership daily. They need to expedite the release of that ridership and its cost as a precursor to future Prop 1 operation results.
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