Traffic Lab Condones Lynnwood Extension Insanity

The Seattle Times March 23^rd B1 page Traffic Lab article, “Lynnwood light rail could be a budget beneficiary” is hardly the good news suggested by the article.  Even with the federal grant local tax payers will be required to pay close to $2B of the $3.1B extension that will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle.  Neither Sound Transit, nor apparently the Seattle Times Traffic Lab, recognizes routing Central Link through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel (DSTT) severely limits its capacity.

A 2004 PSRC Technical Workbook,  “Central Puget Sound Region High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” concluded the DSTT station lengths limit trains to four cars and that safe operation requires a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, or 60 light rail cars per hour.  The PSRC Technical Workbook also concluded the capacity of the 74-seat light rail cars was limited to 148 riders for a total capacity through the tunnel from Everett into Seattle of 8880 riders per hour (rph); a fraction of the transit capacity required to reduce congestion.

Sound Transit initially sold light rail as a link between UW and Tukwila with an early extension to SeaTac.  At the time they projected 70,000 of the projected 110,000 riders would come from the University Link.  A University T/C would provide an interface between 520 BRT and light rail, benefitting commuters from both sides of the lake. It included a 2^nd Montlake Cut Bridge to facilitate BRT service.  Terminating BRT routes at the UW would have allowed light rail to eliminate most if not all of the 520 bus routes into Seattle with the return routes providing Seattleites with light rail/BRT connections to Microsoft and Bellevue.   

Instead Sound Transit used purported UW objections to eliminate the T/C at the UW stadium parking lot, the 2^nd Montlake Cut Bridge, and extend light rail to Northgate.  They plan to spend $2.1B on the extension they’ve claimed would attract 15,000 daily riders, a fraction of what the UW T/C would have provided.  Especially since large numbers of commuters would use T/C BRT connections in both directions.  

Sound Transit’s 2017 4^th Quarter weekday average boardings at UW and Capitol Hill totaled 17,487 with most presumably morning commuters into Seattle to Westlake or University Stations in DSTT.  Assuming half of the 15,000 Northgate Extension riders were also commuting into those stations in Seattle (again very few will likely commute to Northgate in the morning) gives a total of nearly 25,000 every morning.  Accommodating their projected ridership into the DSTT with the Northgate Link and PSRC 8880 rph capacity will take nearly three hours.  

Surely Sound Transit’s decision to spend $3.1 B extending light rail beyond Northgate to Lynnwood is absurd.  Yet the Traffic Lab article gives credence to Sound Transit claim the extension will add 68,500 daily riders, presumably adding 34,250 commuters into Seattle every morning.  (They fail to mention the additional 37,000 riders Sound Transit claims they'll get from the billions spent on Everett extension.)

The Seattle Times describes Traffic Lab as a “project that digs into the regions thorny transportation issues”.  It doesn’t take much “digging” to recognize it will take nearly 4 hours for light rail to accommodate just the Lynnwood Link riders every morning.  Most would consider that a “thorny transportation issue” worthy of mention in article. 

Five Years of Public Transit Failure are Enough

The end of the 2018 legislative session marks another year of the House and Senate Transportation Committee’s feckless response to the area’s roadway gridlock.   Clearly neither Rep. Judy Clibborn, the chair of the House Transportation Committee, nor Sen. Steve Hobbs, the head of the Senate Transportation Committee, had any interest in legislation requiring Sound Transit be audited. Any competent audit would surely have exposed the total failure of Sound Transit policies to reduce area’s congestion.  (They even managed to avoid passing the well-deserved car tab reduction despite having control of both house and senate.)

For example, the Sound Transit Staff recently responded to a 2012 Board request “to update the agency’s parking policy” to “better manage demand at the regions park-and-rides”.  It consisted of proposing a “parking-permit program that would allow solo drivers to pay for a reserved space at selected transit facilities”.  Apparently neither the Sound Transit Board in 2012 nor their Staff by 2018 recognized that the best way to “update the agency’s parking policy” was to add more parking.   As a result, it’s been five years of public transit failure that’s likely to continue. 

All the P&R lots with access to transit have been full for years, yet Sound Transit didn’t recognize the need to add parking in 2012 and still hasn’t done so.   During the last five years they’ve budgeted nearly $6 billion on “System Expansions” with ~80 percent of that on light rail expansions, without including a single major P&R with access to bus routes.   The $6 billion already spent is but a tiny fraction of the billions Sound Transit has already dedicated to creating their light rail spine.  Yet they wait unto 2024 to begin adding a measly 8560 stalls by 2041. 

Sound Transit’s failure to add parking goes along with their failure to increase the number of bus trips.  Their Quarterly Ridership reports showed 2012, 4^th quarter bus trips, 115,163, had increased to only 120,400 during the 2017 4^th quarter.   Clearly, Sound Transit has shown little interest in increasing public transit “supply”.  It’s no wonder comparable total average express-bus-weekday boarding only increased from 54,345 to 61,526 during the five years.  

Sound Transit’s five-year failure to increase public transit capacity is reflected in Puget Sound Regional Council’s “Stuck in Traffic: 2015 Report”.  It included a chart showing the 32,700 hours of delay in 2014 represented a 52% increase in delays between 2009 and 2014.  A more recent Feb 12^th, 2018 Seattle Times Traffic Lab article reported 2016 traffic delays were nearly 2.5 times the 2009 levels. 

The article reported between Everett and Seattle, “you had to budget 94 minutes to drive alone during the morning commute, an increase of nine minutes over the 2014 commute”.   A clear result of Sound Transit failure to increase public transit supply between the two with 4^th Quarter 2012 weekday boarding, 8460, increasing to only 8472 in 2017 4^th Quarter.  

Sound Transit’s decision in 2012 to “manage demand” rather than increase supply has resulted in five years of increased not decreased congestion.  Their current plans to spend  $54 billion on a light rail spine routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel will only continue that trend.

The Sound Transit Board needs to be "persuaded" to increase public transit supply.   One way to do so is with new P&R lots where commuters pay to reserve a stall with assured access to a free ride on their preferred bus route into Seattle.  Those paying the fees needed to cover Sound Transits normal 35% of operation costs would allow others to ride free.  For example, the 12/03/17 post detailed how parking fees from three 1000-stall Pay-to-Park lots near Lynnwood ($10) and two near Everett ($15) could provide 20,000 more commuters with daily public transit capacity into and out of Seattle.  

For $350 million (assuming  $50,000 per parking stall and $100 million for buses) Sound Transit could add the equivalent of 4-5 lanes of capacity during peak commute between Everett and Seattle.  The I-5 corridor South of Seattle and I-90 corridor to Issaquah could also benefit from Pay-to-Park.  And they could begin doing so in 3 to 4 years for a fraction of the money they’ll spend on light rail spine.

The PSRC 2015 report showed HOV lane congestion between Everett and Seattle had increased travel times to 75 minutes in 2014.  Those travel times have surely increased along with the recent drive-alone travel times.  The travel times for the increased public transit supply could be minimized by limiting an HOV lane to buses only or +3HOV during peak commute.  If needed, HOT lanes could be implemented with fees set to limit non-transit traffic to maintain 45 mph.  The benefits from potentially 20,000 fewer vehicles would more than offset the loss of +2HOV lane.

Each Pay-to-Park lot would have a non-stop BRT route into Seattle.  4^th Ave could be converted into an elongated T/C to facilitate egress and access with designated drop-off and pick-up locations on opposite sides depending on the route. While there could be two drop off locations there would be only one pick up location to assure those paying for parking would have access. 

It’s bad enough Sound Transit’s 2012 decision to “manage demand” rather than increase public transit supply has already resulted in five years of increased congestion.  It’s insanity to allow them to spend years and billions more on light rail extensions that do nothing to increase public transit supply into Seattle and only add to the congestion.  

Sound Transit Problems Way Beyond CEO Rogoff’s “Management Style”

The Seattle Times March 2^nd BI page article “Sound Transit chief denied bonus over management style” is just the “tip of the iceberg when it comes to CEO Rogoff’s “deficiencies”.  However, the area should be far more concerned about Sound Transit board's approach to public transit than with Rogoff's "east coast attitude and leadership style".  It’s not clear what his background was that led to his previous position as Under Secretary of Transportation for Policy in the U.S. Department of Transportation. County Executive Dow Constantine’s decision to hire him as Sound Transit CEO was presumably based on this background though others may conclude he was hired as a “reward” for the $1.2 B Lynnwood federal grant while there. 

Whatever his  background, anyone with a modicum of public transit competence would have recognized extending light rail that was routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel  (DSTT) does nothing to increase its limited capacity into the city.   Constantine’s decision to hire Rogoff, while maybe not a reward, is because his Lynnwood federal grant “suggested”  a willingness to go along with the extensions.

Constantine’s faith in Rogoff has certainly been “rewarded”.    Rogoff was instrumental in getting ST3 passed. (He also hosted a campaign soiree where "would be" benefactors from the billions spent on ST3 likely contributed to Constantine's $1 million County Executive campaign fund.)  He managed to convert  legislation enabling 15 years of billion dollar tax increases to at least 30 years with no limit on further extensions.  Sound Transit, under his leadership, “misled” voters about car tab fees with a Sound Transit 7/8/2016 post claiming:

An adult owning the median value motor vehicle would pay an additional $43 per year in MVET if ST3 were passed.

 Sound Transit subsequently deleted the post and responded to later complaints about car tab fees, some more than ten times the $43 promised, with the following:

During the campaign, Sound Transit was completely transparent about the taxes. We all knew that our car tabs would increase a lot in 2017 to help fund Sound Transit.

Clearly, Rogoff’s Sound Transit not only “misled” voters about car tab costs prior to the vote, they lied about doing so afterwards.  Also, their claims for ST3 ridership prior to the vote were sheer fantasy. The PSRC 2004 Technical Workbook,  “Central Puget Sound Region High Capacity Transit Corridor Assessment” concluded the DSTT station lengths limit trains to four cars and that safe operation requires a minimum of 4 minutes between trains, or 60 light rail cars per hour.  The PSRC Technical Workbook also concluded the capacity of the 74-seat light rail cars was limited to 148 riders for a total capacity of 8880 riders per hour (rph).  

Yet prior to the 2016 ST3 vote the Sound Transit 3 map detailing expansions claimed extending light rail from Northgate to Everett would increase ridership by up to 119,000 daily.  Assuming PSRC capacity, it would take more than 13 hours each day to accommodate the 119,000 riders.  Needless to say those attempting to get on Central Link at Northgate and stations nearer Seattle would have a “long wait”.

The ST3 extensions to Tacoma and Bellevue would presumably share the DSTT capacity, each with 4440-rph capacities.  The Sound Transit 3 Map claimed the extensions beyond Angel Lake would attract up to 95,000 daily riders.  That would take more than 21 hours each day. Again, current Central Link riders would have a long wait for available space.  The wait at Mercer Island to accommodate the  50,000 daily riders they’ve promised for East Link would “only take” 11 hours.

The bottom line is Sound Transit, under Rogoff’s leadership, used blatant mendacity regarding ST3 cost and benefits to get voter approval of the light rail spine funding.   However, anyone qualified to be on a “transportation system board” should have recognized that reality.  The problem is Dow Constantine and the Sound Transit Board have always been more interested in creating a light rail system than in increasing the public transit capacity needed to reduce congestion. Rogoff’s success in getting ST3 passed went a long way towards funding those light rail extensions that don't.  

Whatever “penalties” the board decides for Rogoff’s “management style” will do nothing to change the fact they’re committing to spend $54 billion over 25 years on a light rail spine that will do absolutely nothing to reduce congestion and whose operating costs will likely create a financial black hole for the area's future transportation funds.

That’s why the legislature should be requiring an audit and what the media should be warning the area about.  If past is prolog that’s not likely to happen and the entire area will pay.

Sound Transit Should Increase “Transit Supply” Not “Manage Demand”.

The Feb 14th Sound Transit news release “Sound Transit, King County Metro seek public feedback on reserved solo-driver permit parking at transit facilities” exemplifies their inept approach to public transit.  The proposal was the result of a 2012 Sound Transit Board of Directors request asking  “staff to update the agency’s parking policy and develop a pilot project to test new parking management strategies”.  Apparently it took the staff six years to come up with the following:

To better manage demand at the region’s park-and-rides and transit centers, Sound Transit and King County Metro are seeking feedback on a parking permit program that would allow solo drivers to pay for a reserved space at select transit facilities.

While reserved parking may better “manage demand” for existing bus service, it will do nothing to reduce roadway congestion. The area’s P&R lots with access to transit have been full for years. Those currently using the P&R who are “displaced” by the “new parking management strategy” will presumably add to those commuting into Seattle. Not only will they be forced to endure the cost and hassle of commuting into Seattle, they'll likely be forced to pay a hefty parking fee there.  Commuters wishing to avoid the hassle and cost will be faced with a choice between either arriving at the P&R “very early” or paying for reserved parking.  The reserved parking stalls will “likely” be very popular.  Who decides who gets to buy one?

Sound Transit’s justifies the “new parking management strategy” with the following:

At the most popular transit facilities, people are arriving earlier and earlier to secure a space – which can increase crowding on early buses and trains while seats remain empty on later transit trips.

Anyone with a modicum of competence would recognize that transit systems can’t “manage transit demand”.  The solution to the “increasing crowding on early buses” should be to add more bus routes.  That, “the seats remain empty on later transit trips” because all the P&Rs with access to the buses are full before many commuters can use them.   Yet Sound Transit refuses to add either bus routes or additional parking. 

The Sound Transit Board needs to recognize that, rather than attempting to “manage demand” for public transit, they need to “increase supply”.  Doing so requires adding parking with access to increased capacity with more bus routes.  Yet Sound Transit waits until 2024 to begin adding a measly 8560 parking spaces by 2041.  The billions they’re planning to spend on the STE “Prop 1 and beyond” light rail spine will do absolutely nothing to increase transit capacity into Seattle. 

The way to increase public transit “supply” is to create new P&R lots where commuters pay to reserve a stall with assured access to a free ride on their preferred bus route into either Seattle or Bellevue. The 12/03/17 post detailed how the parking fees from three 1000-stall Pay-to-Park lots near Lynnwood ($10) and two near Everett ($15) would allow 20,000 more commuters to use public transit into and out of Seattle each day. 

Another way to increase “transit supply” is to route buses directly to a stop within walking distance of the many new large apartment and condominium complexes throughout the area.   Commuters there could pre-pay a “ride assurance” fee to reserve a seat on their preferred bus route. 

The bottom line is a competent Sound Transit Board would've never proposed Prop 1, extending light rail routed through the Downtown Seattle Transit Tunnel.  That four years later they still hadn't  recognized that reducing congestion required increasing public transit “supply” rather than  “managing demand” for existing public transit.  That,  spending billions on light rail extensions does nothing to increase transit capacity (supply) into Seattle.  That a fraction of that money could have been spent adding parking and bus service that would have minimized the areas “4^th worst-in-country congestion”. 

Their latest news release suggests they still don’t recognize that reality.